FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
850 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MINNESOTA...NORTH DAKOTA...
THIS IS A FOLLOW-UP FLOOD STATEMENT TO THE CURRENT WARNINGS FOR THE
RED RIVER AT FARGO AFFECTING CLAY AND CASS COUNTIES
.CONDITIONS ON THE RED RIVER AT FARGO AND MOORHEAD REMAIN DANGEROUS.
THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY ABOVE RECORD LEVELS...AND AT THIS TIME THE
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...REPORTS INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT OVERLAND
FLOODING SOUTH OF FARGO...AND THIS WATER IS EXPECTED TO STILL FLOW
INTO THE RED RIVER BETWEEN HICKSON AND FARGO.
COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED OVERLAND RUNOFF SOUTH OF
FARGO...RESULTING IN A LOWER THAN EXPECTED PEAK FLOW. ALTHOUGH RIVER
LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED MANY FACTORS...SUCH AS ICE ACTION AND
WIND...REMAIN PRESENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES
OF ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT AT FARGO. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR STAGES TO
FLUCTUATE IN LARGE FLOODS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IN THE AREA WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT 815 AM CDT...THE RIVER STAGE AT FARGO IS 40.15 FEET. THIS LEVEL
EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OBSERVED IN THE 1997 FLOOD...WHICH WAS
39.57 FEET. THIS LEVEL ALSO EXCEEDS THE RECORD HEIGHT OBSERVED IN
1897...WHICH WAS 40.10 FEET. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS THE RIVER HAS
SHOWN VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS...BASICALLY REMAINING STEADY.
THIS FORECAST IS FOR A 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HIGHEST STAGE INDICATED
MAY NOT REFLECT THE CREST FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT. FORECASTS ARE
UPDATED DAILY AND STAGE VALUES WILL CHANGE AS NEW WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION IS USED. THIS FORECAST INCLUDES ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGES...TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN...
- DON`T TRAVEL THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!
- CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TO REPORT FLOODING.
- PERSONS LIVING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS WHILE THE RIVER IS IN...OR NEAR...FLOOD.
THE FOLLOWING SEGMENTS CONTAIN RIVER INFORMATION FOR
THE SELECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THIS MESSAGE.
THIS FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR ICE JAMS THAT CAN
QUICKLY RAISE LOCAL RIVER LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICE.
&&
MNC027-NDC017-310150-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FGON8.3.SM.090321T0150Z.090328T0515Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
850 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2009
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 815 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 40.15 FEET.
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 41.0
FEET. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS THE RIVER HAS SHOWN VERY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS...BASICALLY REMAINING STEADY. WITH THE RIVER
EXCEEDING THE PREVIOUS RECORD LEVEL...THE RELATIVE UNCERTAINTY IN
FORECAST MODELS REMAIN AND THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BEHAVE IN
WAYS NEVER BEFORE SEEN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM
MAY CAUSE WAVES OF UP TO 2 FEET...ON TOP OF THE CREST VALUE...TO
IMPACT THE WESTERN DIKES ALONG THE RED RIVER. THUS...THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE RIVER COULD RISE AGAIN.
* FLOODING IN THE RED RIVER BASIN IS NORMALLY LONG TERM. THIS
FORECAST WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
* IMPACT STATEMENT(S) - AT 40.2 FEET, FARGO...TOP ELEVATION OF THE
EMERGENCY LEVEES.
&&
DAILY 1 AM CDT/MIDNIGHT CST FORECAST STAGE IN FEET:
DATE MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
(MONTH/DAY) 03/30 03/31 04/01 04/02 04/03 04/04 04/05
RED RIVER
FARGO 40.1 39.9 39.6 39.2 38.9 38.5 38.1
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发表于 2009-3-29 22:49
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发表于 2009-3-30 08:32