WMO的研究表明：今年上半年没有大的拉尼娜或厄尔尼诺事件

VOG

NO LARGE LA NIÑA OR EL NIÑO EVENT EXPECTED IN FIRST HALF OF 2009
Geneva, 17 February 2009 (WMO) - Although sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific cooled in December indicating La Niña-like conditions, the latter are already weakening and meteorologists do not expect a prolonged basin-wide La Niña event. Forecasts suggest that the La Niña-like conditions will most likely dissipate over the next couple of months returning the tropical Pacific to neutral conditions by March-May 2009. Some regions, however, may continue experiencing significant changes in their climate patterns over the coming months due to the recent La Niña-like conditions.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which disrupts the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation. During La Niña events, lower than normal atmospheric pressure tends to occur over Indonesia and northern Australia and higher than normal pressure over the eastern tropical Pacific. El Niño is the opposite condition, characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the global average temperature for 2008 was slightly lower than that for the previous years of the 21st century due in part to La Niña. The first quarter of 2008 was characterized by a La Niña event of moderate to strong intensity, which began in the third quarter of 2007 and prevailed through May 2008. La Niña conditions have gradually weakened from their peak strength in February 2008.

In December 2008, however, unusually cold sea-surface temperatures developed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with temperatures more than 0.5 degrees Celsius below normal. A coupling of atmospheric wind patterns with these cooler temperatures led to the recent La Niña-like conditions.

As these conditions weaken, the outlook for March-May 2009 is for “neutral” conditions to be the most likely outcome. Forecasts for the remainder of 2009 are very uncertain at this stage, and the likelihood of El Niño conditions developing is no higher than that of La Niña conditions.

Some recent global climate patterns have been impacted by the La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. The impacts are expected to subside over the next couple of months, but a tendency for climate patterns consistent with La Niña may continue over the same period in some regions.

WMO prepares these updates in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), by consulting climate prediction centres around the world and facilitating the development of a consensus. WMO Members will continue to carefully monitor the situation in the tropical Pacific. Over the coming months, the climate forecasting community will provide detailed interpretations of regional climate fluctuations through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

For more information:
Web links to WMO’s members: http://www.wmo.int/pages/members/members_en.html.
La Niña update: full report:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html
(Archives: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_updates.html)

[ 本帖最后由 VOG 于 2009-3-20 20:54 编辑 ]

tom.hp

翻译如下：

Geneva, 17 February 2009 (WMO) - Although sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific cooled in December indicating La Niña-like conditions, the latter are already weakening and meteorologists do not expect a prolonged basin-wide La Niña event. Forecasts suggest that the La Niña-like conditions will most likely dissipate over the next couple of months returning the tropical Pacific to neutral conditions by March-May 2009. Some regions, however, may continue experiencing significant changes in their climate patterns over the coming months due to the recent La Niña-like conditions.

2009年2月17日，世界气象组织在日内瓦声称：尽管在（08年）12月太平洋海面表层水温偏低是由于类似拉尼娜影响，但是随后已经逐渐变弱，气象学家不认为拉尼娜状态会过多维持。预报显示：类似的拉尼娜现象最有可能于2个月以后的2009年3-5月之间逐步消散，赤道太平洋会恢复平均水平。然而，由于最近的类似拉尼娜条件，某些区域可能在接下来的几个月里持续经历比较大的气候异常。

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which disrupts the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation. During La Niña events, lower than normal atmospheric pressure tends to occur over Indonesia and northern Australia and higher than normal pressure over the eastern tropical Pacific. El Niño is the opposite condition, characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

拉尼娜是一种东太低纬海温异常变冷，她会破坏正常的热带大气环流。在拉尼娜现象出现时，更低的气压通常发生在印尼和澳洲北部，而更高的气压则出现在低纬东太。厄尔尼诺现象却是和拉尼娜相反的，是一种赤道附近东太海温异常变暖的现象。

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the global average temperature for 2008 was slightly lower than that for the previous years of the 21st century due in part to La Niña. The first quarter of 2008 was characterized by a La Niña event of moderate to strong intensity, which began in the third quarter of 2007 and prevailed through May 2008. La Niña conditions have gradually weakened from their peak strength in February 2008.

按照世界气象组织，进入21世纪以来，2008年全球平均气温和前几年相比是略微偏低，导致这个现象的部分因素可以归结为拉尼娜。2008年第一季度是拉尼娜的中强期，这次拉尼娜出现于2007年第三季度，一直盛行到2008年5月份。自2008年2月份达到顶峰以后开始慢慢消退。

In December 2008, however, unusually cold sea-surface temperatures developed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with temperatures more than 0.5 degrees Celsius below normal. A coupling of atmospheric wind patterns with these cooler temperatures led to the recent La Niña-like conditions.

然而在2008年12月，一个表层海水的异常偏冷0.5摄氏度以上的现象开始在中东太发展，大气风向和这些偏冷海水的耦合机制导致了最近出现的类似拉尼娜现象。

As these conditions weaken, the outlook for March-May 2009 is for “neutral” conditions to be the most likely outcome. Forecasts for the remainder of 2009 are very uncertain at this stage, and the likelihood of El Niño conditions developing is no higher than that of La Niña conditions.

由于形成这次类似拉尼娜的条件是比较弱的，因此有望在2009年3-5月恢复到正常的水平。而在2009年随后剩下时间段，预报是非常模糊的，而且出现厄尔尼诺的可能性不比拉尼娜的可能性高。

Some recent global climate patterns have been impacted by the La Niña-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. The impacts are expected to subside over the next couple of months, but a tendency for climate patterns consistent with La Niña may continue over the same period in some regions.

一些近期的全球气候模式已经被赤道太平洋的拉尼娜所影响。这些影响可能要过2个月才能慢慢减弱，但是拉尼娜影响的可能导致某些地区天气情况改变的滞后性趋势。

WMO prepares these updates in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), by consulting climate prediction centres around the world and facilitating the development of a consensus. WMO Members will continue to carefully monitor the situation in the tropical Pacific. Over the coming months, the climate forecasting community will provide detailed interpretations of regional climate fluctuations through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

世界气象组织准备和IRI（国际气候调查协会）合作商议和更新气候预测和简化舆论的发展。世界气象组织的成员会仔细监测热带太平洋区域的情况。在未来几个月里，气候预报团体会通过国家气象分析和水文监测站点来提供细致的区域性天气分析。

PS：由于时间比较仓促，可能翻译当中有一些BUG，请大家补充和指正，谢谢h:23