MAX：130KTS~18P-HAMISH－副高的玩具

威尼斯0519

98PINVEST.25kts-1004mb-131S-1472E.
发现晚了……
看到的时候已经这个样子了……

[ 本帖最后由 sylar 于 2009-3-10 23:16 编辑 ]

phoonfan

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S  
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 050719Z SSMI/S IMAGE SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC
WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR,  WARM SST AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

[ 本帖最后由 phoonfan 于 2009-3-5 17:24 编辑 ]

sylar

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
147.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 147.2E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 050719Z SSMI/S IMAGE SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC
WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR,  WARM SST AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

li0627

奈何EC的预测，已经从数日前的+144H为强烈旋风，下调成今日的+96H是STS了……

phoonfan

?1236257752724

[ 本帖最后由 phoonfan 于 2009-3-5 23:33 编辑 ]

phoonfan

JTWC上望70kt

li0627

迅速上调预测（基于目前已经是STS上限强度的“初始场”）

希望EC最早的预测成功哦:QQ/02

目前EC预测登陆前削减成L，应该是不可能的了。

phoonfan

看图:D/20

18P HAMISH.65kts-974mb-151S-1468E

威尼斯0519

看起来怎么这么奇怪……
中心东面有一块对流明显较弱的区域，好像把整个系统切成了两块似的……

pscboy

中央气象台2009年3月6日18时发布热带气旋公报：
热带气旋Hamish（相当于中国的强热带风暴）的中心今天下午2时位于澳大利亚昆士兰州（Queensland）的凯恩斯（Cairns）东北方大约240公里的近海海面上，就是南纬14.9度，东经146.6度，中心附近最大风力有11级（30米/秒）。预计，Hamish将以每小时10-15公里的速度沿昆士兰州（Queensland）近海向南偏东方向移动，强度继续加强。
来源：中国天气网