致命的夜袭？天佑粤西：0814号台风黑格比（Hagupit）<18W

win107123

93W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.17.3N 141.9E

dnt02

這個東風波編號了
今年東風波轉化為TC的比率比平常高啊
浣熊,鸚鵡,森垃克都是..
現在東南信風很強..
加上副高處於穩定加強時期
有利輻合
而高空環境持續好轉,一個高空反氣旋正在建立
加上東面的高空冷心低壓帶來良好北側外流..
看好它增強為熱帶氣旋
看看是不是鸚鵡的後代?(又盼風了XD)

sylar

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0N 147.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDI-
CATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A 142019Z
QSCAT PASS DEPICITNG A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM SST, HOWEVER, A LACK OF CONVECTION AND POOR SURFACE
CONSOLIDATION ARE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MIN-
IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

地球

THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

phoonfan

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WEAK BUT DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ENHANCING THIS DIFFLU-
ENCE ARE TWO TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS TO
THE WEST AND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON VERY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

cwnraul

93WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-135N-1435E
一下子就向南重定位到13.5N 。。。。。:y1

cwnraul

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1N
145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER AND NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS DISTURBANCE LIES IN A REGION OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLOWED THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS DIS-
TURBANCE, BUT AS THE LLCC TRACKS WESTWARD THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND THIS TUTT CELL WILL BEGIN TO AID
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE FORECAST FOR
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

cwnraul

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 142.3E TO 18.3N 137.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 172300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.3N 141.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N
144.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-
WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS [b]A
FULLY-EXPOSED (BUT TIGHTLY-WRAPPED) LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY[/b]. A
171618Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING WITHIN
CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK WITH IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE. A 172041Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPROVING, SYMMETRIC
LLCC WITH NUMEROUS 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS THROUGH ALL QUADRANTS.
[b]UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAIR OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER, THERE IS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER AND THE
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VWS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP.[/b] MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 17-22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

老J说93w中心完全外露，目前所处环境风切中等，辐散也只是一般
但由于预计未来会西行至风切低，辐散好的环境，所以才升good。。。。

typhoonfreak

好不容易送走森垃克~93W又對台灣虎視眈眈[s:12]

這隻也是東風波發展起來的系統
不過現在環境風切有點太強
(高低層的高壓位置重合狀況不佳)
垂直風切作用讓強對流偏向系統南側~LLCC的北半圈呈現外露狀態
中央的暖心始終建立不起來~CISK也就無法運轉
甚至連LLCC本身的位置都還不是很穩定
不過副高壓繼續西伸~高低層高壓系統位置會調整為重合狀態
預估等93W到了135E以西後就會有比較好的發展環境
配合目前仍然良好的海溫~強度應該會很快的有所成長

動態方面大概48~72小時內變化不大
副高壓呈現西伸狀態
93W也只能乖乖順著高壓邊緣往西或西北西移動
同時華中有西風短波槽東移
目前預測約21號左右短波槽來到日本附近
配合北半球波脊間的位相調整~短波槽將逐漸加深並且切斷副高壓脊
使高壓再度斷裂為東西兩環的狀態
93W可能逐漸失去引導而速度減慢
在台灣東南方海面開始徘徊
情況其實跟森垃克是有點像的
至於停留後會往西還是往北目前還言之過早
等93W開始滯留後看實際狀況再來做研判還不遲

cwnraul

此 外 ， 在 菲 律 宾 以 东 的 低 压 区 已 增 强 为 一 热 带 低 气 压 。 在 上 午 十 时 ， 该 热 带 低 气 压 集 结 在 马 尼 拉 以 东 约 1690 公 里 ， 预 料 向 西 移 动 ， 时 速 约 22 公 里 ， 逐 渐 靠 近 吕 宋 。

HKO升格