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[西太台风] 07W-沉默的风神

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发表于 2008-6-13 16:55 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
94WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-5.8N-137.3E

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-6-13 17:08 | 显示全部楼层
风场
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-6-13 17:11 | 显示全部楼层
NCEP综合数值
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发表于 2008-6-13 19:31 | 显示全部楼层
受熱帶東風推動,短期走西或西南西
发表于 2008-6-13 21:50 | 显示全部楼层
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LOCATED NEAR 5.3N
141.2E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEV-
ELOPING, YET LOOSLY DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
SURFACE LEVEL ANALYSIS OF SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND CLOUD TRACK
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA DEPICT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ASSO-
CIATED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS AREA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LIES BENEATH A DIFF-
LUENT REGION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOP-
MENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
发表于 2008-6-14 21:52 | 显示全部楼层
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N
141.2E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS DISSIPATED
AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
发表于 2008-6-15 14:02 | 显示全部楼层

再度升格

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.5N 139.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD, BUT
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 152356Z ASCAT
IMAGE DEPICTS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE LLCC AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS BROAD CIRCULATION. RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSER-
VATIONS FROM PALAU AND YAP REPORT 0.5 AND 1.0 MB PRESSURE FALLS
RESPECTIVELY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. SINCE THE
CIRCULATION IS BROAD, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
 楼主| 发表于 2008-6-17 08:26 | 显示全部楼层
有点对得起观众的样子出来了
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发表于 2008-6-17 16:06 | 显示全部楼层
EC支持94w发展成为风神,并且能达到一定强度。。。。
而且在72h后就成形了。。
发表于 2008-6-18 10:25 | 显示全部楼层
目前副高壓呈現兩塊
受到中國~蒙古~西伯利亞上空長波槽停留的影響
日本以東在波長位相調整的情況下出現另一個長波槽
而且很快的往南伸展~已經很明顯的斬斷原本長條狀的副高壓脊
西邊這一塊將繼續西移~未來兩三天將籠罩台灣到華南一帶
梅雨鋒面將隨之北抬到長江沿岸
然後逐漸趨於減弱變薄~下週可能讓梅雨鋒面再度南壓
東邊的副高壓主力則將往西南伸展
繞過太平洋上長波槽南側後往94W東方靠近
並且預測會持續呈現傾斜狀態
暫時來看94W先後受到兩個高壓的影響
以拋物線北上的機會頗大
但是轉向點的位置還有待實際觀察
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