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[官方预报] T-1507(白海豚)机构定位和预报

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发表于 2015-5-12 00:22 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
CMA
   
091200 UTC:00HR 5.4N 161.8E 998HPA 18M/S
091800 UTC:00HR 5.6N 161.3E 998HPA 18M/S
100000 UTC:00HR 6.2N 160.2E 998HPA 18M/S
100600 UTC:00HR 6.8N 160.0E 998HPA 18M/S
101200 UTC:00HR 7.1N 159.6E 998HPA 18M/S
101800 UTC:00HR 7.9N 159.3E 998HPA 18M/S
110000 UTC:00HR 8.6N 159.6E 995HPA 20M/S
110600 UTC:00HR 9.6N 159.6E 995HPA 20M/S
111200 UTC:00HR 9.8N 158.7E 995HPA 20M/S

SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS DOLPHIN 1507 (1507) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC
00HR 9.8N 158.7E 995HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
260KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 10KM/H
P+12HR 10.1N 158.0E 990HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 10.1N 156.3E 982HPA 28M/S
P+36HR 10.2N 154.1E 980HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 10.6N 151.5E 975HPA 33M/S
P+60HR 10.9N 148.6E 970HPA 35M/S
P+72HR 11.6N 145.5E 965HPA 38M/S
P+96HR 13.3N 139.7E 960HPA 40M/S
P+120HR 15.4N 135.1E 940HPA 50M/S=
NNNN


5天后上望强台
发表于 2015-5-12 09:17 | 显示全部楼层
** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS DOLPHIN 1507 (1507) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC
00HR 10.1N 158.2E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
260KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 18KM/H
P+12HR 10.2N  156.4E  985HPA  25M/S
P+24HR 10.1N 154.2E 982HPA 28M/S
P+36HR 10.3N  151.7E  980HPA  30M/S
P+48HR 11.0N 149.0E 970HPA 35M/S
P+60HR 11.8N  146.3E  960HPA  40M/S
P+72HR 12.7N 143.3E 950HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 14.6N 138.3E 935HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 17.3N 134.7E 920HPA 60M/S=
发表于 2015-5-16 14:50 | 显示全部楼层
1606Z,各家机构评价:CMA 55m/s,JMA 95kt,JTWC 130kt

西太第三个超级台风
发表于 2015-5-16 14:54 | 显示全部楼层
** WTPQ20 BABJ 160600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY DOLPHIN 1507 (1507) INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC
00HR 15.8N 141.5E 930HPA 55M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
50KTS  WINDS 110KM NORTHEAST
110KM SOUTHEAST
110KM SOUTHWEST
110KM NORTHWEST
64KTS  WINDS 40KM NORTHEAST
40KM SOUTHEAST
40KM SOUTHWEST
40KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 18KM/H
P+12HR 17.3N  139.7E  920HPA  60M/S
P+24HR 18.8N 138.9E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 20.1N  138.5E  910HPA  65M/S
P+48HR 21.4N 138.6E 920HPA 60M/S
P+60HR 22.9N  139.2E  930HPA  55M/S
P+72HR 24.2N 140.3E 945HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 28.3N 144.6E 975HPA 33M/S
P+120HR 37.1N 156.0E 990HPA 23M/S=




** WTPQ21 RJTD 160600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 1507 DOLPHIN (1507)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  160600UTC 15.8N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE  WNW 11KT
PRES  935HPA
MXWD  095KT
GUST  135KT
50KT  80NM
30KT  210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  170600UTC 18.7N 138.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE  NNW 09KT
PRES  920HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT
48HF  180600UTC 21.7N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE  N 08KT
PRES  920HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT
72HF  190600UTC 24.2N 140.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE  NNE 07KT
PRES  930HPA
MXWD  095KT
GUST  135KT =



** WTPN32 PGTW 160900 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 039
   UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 07W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 141.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 141.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.3N 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.9N 139.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.2N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 21.8N 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.8N 142.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 28.6N 146.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 36.2N 156.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 141.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z.//
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