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[官方预报] 1419号台风“黃蜂”官方机构预报

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发表于 2014-10-7 21:25 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
黃蜂,名字來源澳門

意思:黃蜂屬昆蟲類,身上有黃色及黑色間條紋,尾部長有可使人劇痛的刺針,它正如颱風一樣通常使人感到害怕。

台風第19号 (ヴォンフォン)
平成26年10月07日21時45分 発表
<07日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 17度25分(17.4度)
東経 134度10分(134.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 915hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(105kt)
最大瞬間風速 75m/s(150kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 190km(100NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 北東側 390km(210NM)
南西側 330km(180NM)

<08日09時の予報>
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 17度55分(17.9度)
東経 132度20分(132.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 905hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速 80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径 90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 300km(160NM)

<08日21時の予報>
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 18度25分(18.4度)
東経 131度25分(131.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 905hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速 80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径 130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 330km(180NM)

<09日21時の予報>
強さ 猛烈な
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 19度55分(19.9度)
東経 130度55分(130.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 910hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(105kt)
最大瞬間風速 75m/s(150kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 410km(220NM)

<10日21時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 日本の南
予報円の中心 北緯 22度50分(22.8度)
東経 131度50分(131.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 920hPa
中心付近の最大風速 50m/s(100kt)
最大瞬間風速 70m/s(140kt)
予報円の半径 300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 480km(260NM)
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-7 21:25 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 498 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX AND A 070518Z
SSMI IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.5 AND WITH RECENT
AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TY 19W HAS CONTINUED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, EVIDENCED BY SYMMETRIC
BANDING AND A 27 NM DIAMETER EYE EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW MECHANISMS, INCLUDING A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TY 19W CONTINUES TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NEAR-TERM FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED GIVEN THE RECENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE TAU 120 FORECAST POSITION HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 36.
THEREAFTER, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A SHARP
POLEWARD TURN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY FROM TAU 36 THROUGH TAU
72. THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST TRACK. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND PASSAGE
OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
DURING THIS PERIOD.
   C. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A TRANSIENT
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, INDUCING A SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK DEFLECTION BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO, BUT DEPICTIONS OF THE WESTWARD TRACK DEVIATION VARY.  
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK LIES IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  
TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT DROPS OFF.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-10-8 01:27 | 显示全部楼层
JMA在10/7 15UTC的一报再次提升强度
   
台風第19号 (ヴォンフォン)
平成26年10月08日00時50分 発表
<08日00時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 17度30分(17.5度)
東経 133度35分(133.6度)
進行方向、速さ西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧905hPa
中心付近の最大風速55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速80m/s(155kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 200km(110NM)
15m/s以上の強風域北側 500km(270NM)
南側 330km(180NM)
<08日12時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 18度05分(18.1度)
東経 132度00分(132.0度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧900hPa
中心付近の最大風速55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域全域 310km(170NM)
<09日00時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 18度35分(18.6度)
東経 131度10分(131.2度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧900hPa
中心付近の最大風速55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域全域 350km(190NM)
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发表于 2014-10-8 02:56 | 显示全部楼层
凌晨一报的强度评定——115KT,900hPa
台風第19号 (ヴォンフォン)
平成26年10月08日03時45分 発表
<08日03時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 17度40分(17.7度)
東経 133度10分(133.2度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧900hPa
中心付近の最大風速60m/s(115kt)
最大瞬間風速85m/s(165kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 200km(110NM)
15m/s以上の強風域北側 500km(270NM)
南側 330km(180NM)
<08日15時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 18度10分(18.2度)
東経 131度50分(131.8度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧895hPa
中心付近の最大風速60m/s(120kt)
最大瞬間風速85m/s(170kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域全域 310km(170NM)
<09日03時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 18度40分(18.7度)
東経 131度00分(131.0度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧900hPa
中心付近の最大風速60m/s(115kt)
最大瞬間風速85m/s(165kt)
予報円の半径130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域全域 330km(180NM)
<10日03時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯 20度20分(20.3度)
東経 130度55分(130.9度)
進行方向、速さ北 ゆっくり
中心気圧910hPa
中心付近の最大風速55m/s(105kt)
最大瞬間風速75m/s(150kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域全域 390km(210NM)
<11日03時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯 23度35分(23.6度)
東経 131度55分(131.9度)
進行方向、速さ北北東 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧925hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(135kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 460km(250NM)

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发表于 2014-10-8 03:06 | 显示全部楼层
CMA:65m/s 910hPa
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY VONGFONG 1419 (1419) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC
00HR 17.3N 135.2E 945HPA 48M/S
30KTS WINDS 270KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
270KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 130KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
130KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 90KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
90KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 18KM/H
P+12HR 17.6N 133.2E 930HPA 55M/S
P+24HR 18.3N 131.9E 920HPA 60M/S
P+36HR 19.0N 131.2E 910HPA 65M/S
P+48HR 20.0N 130.6E 920HPA 60M/S
P+60HR 21.0N 130.5E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 22.3N 130.7E 940HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 25.2N 131.2E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 28.2N 129.1E 960HPA 40M/S=
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY VONGFONG 1419 (1419) INITIAL TIME 071200 UTC
00HR 17.4N 134.2E 930HPA 55M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
330KM SOUTHEAST
350KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
220KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 13KM/H
P+12HR 18.1N 132.3E 920HPA 60M/S
P+24HR 18.7N 131.5E 915HPA 62M/S
P+36HR 19.5N 131.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+48HR 20.7N 131.1E 920HPA 60M/S
P+60HR 21.9N 131.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 23.1N 131.5E 940HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 25.6N 131.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 28.0N 129.5E 960HPA 40M/S=
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY VONGFONG 1419 (1419) INITIAL TIME 071800 UTC
00HR 17.7N 133.1E 910HPA 65M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
330KM SOUTHEAST
350KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
210KM SOUTHEAST
220KM SOUTHWEST
220KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 12KM/H
P+12HR 18.2N 131.7E 905HPA 68M/S
P+24HR 19.0N 131.2E 905HPA 68M/S
P+36HR 19.7N 131.0E 915HPA 62M/S
P+48HR 20.8N 131.0E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 22.1N 131.2E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 23.3N 131.5E 950HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 26.1N 131.0E 960HPA 40M/S
P+120HR 29.4N 129.7E 970HPA 35M/S=
发表于 2014-10-8 05:13 | 显示全部楼层
155KT

WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS STY 19W HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY WITH AN INTENSE RING OF SYMMETRIC CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
DEFINED 17 NM EYE AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES FEEDING IN THE SYSTEM. A 071751Z SSMI IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
AN INTENSE, CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES,
SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE DEFINED EYE FEATURE
IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD THAT HAVE
INCREASED TO T7.5 (155 KNOTS) AND THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS WHILE ADDITIONAL VENTING IS BEING INDUCED BY A TUTT
CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. STY 19W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAS NOTICEABLY SLOWED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, INDICATIVE OF A WEAKENING STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENING STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 12, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A SHARP
POLEWARD TURN. STY 19W WILL THEN TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE FROM TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 72.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND PASSAGE OVER VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT CELL AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) BEING
THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTERWARDS AS
VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLOW DOWN AND POLEWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER WHICH, THE
MODEL TRACKERS AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
WITH A SPREAD OF 300 NM AT TAU 72. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THERE AFTER.
   C. STY 19W WILL CONTINUE POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A TRANSIENT
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, INDUCING A SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK DEFLECTION BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120. STY 19W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND
ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT DEPICTIONS OF THE WESTWARD
TRACK DEVIATION AND THE EXTENT OF THE TRANSITORY RIDGE VARY. GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY STABLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-10-8 05:53 | 显示全部楼层
05时CMA将巅峰预期上调到75m/s,平了海燕
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发表于 2014-10-8 12:11 | 显示全部楼层
CMA跟进,900hPa
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY VONGFONG 1419 (1419) INITIAL TIME 080300 UTC
00HR 18.1N 131.8E 900HPA 68M/S
30KTS WINDS 350KM NORTHEAST
350KM SOUTHEAST
380KM SOUTHWEST
360KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
220KM SOUTHEAST
260KM SOUTHWEST
230KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 8KM/H
P+12HR 18.8N 131.0E 895HPA 70M/S
P+24HR 19.5N 130.6E 890HPA 72M/S
P+36HR 20.5N 130.3E 900HPA 68M/S
P+48HR 21.9N 130.5E 920HPA 60M/S
P+60HR 22.8N 130.7E 935HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 23.9N 131.1E 945HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 26.9N 129.9E 955HPA 42M/S
P+120HR 29.8N 130.3E 965HPA 38M/S=
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-8 23:59 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A ROUND 23-NM EYE. A 081234Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE ROUND EYE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 145 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 TO T7.5 (140 TO 155 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. STY 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 08/00Z 500MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BREAK IN THE STR OVER OKINAWA WITH ZONAL WESTERLY
MIDLATITUDE FLOW POLEWARD OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 19W IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR
AND TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS POSITIONED NEAR OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 24,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG OVER
WESTERN JAPAN AFTER TAU 36. THE JGSM, JENS AND ECMWF TRACKERS
INDICATE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, AFFECTED
MORE BY THE TROUGH, WHILE GFS, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATE A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD OKINAWA THAT REFLECTS NO
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, REFLECTING THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND VARYING DEGREES OF MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
INTERACTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. STY 19W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STY STRENGTH THROUGH TAU
36 BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 72.   
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROPAGATES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND RE-
BUILDS THE STR TO VARYING DEGREES. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTATION.
NEAR TAU 96, STY 19W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF 28N
LATITUDE WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-10-8 23:59 | 显示全部楼层
台風第19号 (ヴォンフォン)
平成26年10月09日00時45分 発表

<09日00時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        猛烈な
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 18度35分(18.6度)
東経 130度35分(130.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        900hPa
中心付近の最大風速        60m/s(115kt)
最大瞬間風速        85m/s(165kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 200km(110NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        北側 500km(270NM)
南側 330km(180NM)

<09日12時の予報>
強さ        猛烈な
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 19度05分(19.1度)
東経 130度10分(130.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        900hPa
中心付近の最大風速        60m/s(115kt)
最大瞬間風速        85m/s(165kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 300km(160NM)

<10日00時の予報>
強さ        猛烈な
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯 20度05分(20.1度)
東経 130度10分(130.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北 ゆっくり
中心気圧        905hPa
中心付近の最大風速        55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速        80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 330km(180NM)

<10日21時の予報>
強さ        猛烈な
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯 22度30分(22.5度)
東経 130度55分(130.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        915hPa
中心付近の最大風速        55m/s(105kt)
最大瞬間風速        75m/s(150kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 390km(210NM)

<11日21時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        南大東島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 25度55分(25.9度)
東経 131度25分(131.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        940hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径        300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 440km(240NM)
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