1417号台风北冕，中期数值预报的擂台：98W

将臣

GFS 1416号台风“凤凰”多报运算路径神一般准确。

接下来是1417号台风北冕，两大数值PK，如图。

EC（欧洲中期数值预报）：环流平直趋向华东近海

GFS（美国全球预报系统）：副高不堪一击，北冕转向日本

买GFS还是买EC呢？

JTWC TCFA：

WTPN21 PGTW 221900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 148.1E TO 17.5N 147.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 148.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 200NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE AREA OF CONVECTION, WHILE EXTREMELY BROAD,
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION. A 221632Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS VERY FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS WITH THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATING OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231900Z.//
NNNN

相关链接：大火西流秋处露秋，诸台乱舞竞艳风流——2014年8、9月TCC（热带云簇）追击帖

将臣

EC 两报即败北，而从下午实况看，西环也确实不足抗衡，几乎可以宣布GFS胜。

yz0330

正常来说，按照这个季节的气候值，除非有极端异常的气候事件发生（虽然今年已经发生过若干宗），EC前段时间预测的那种路径是不可能出现的
   
目前JMA已经命名，日本即将遭遇今年最闪亮的台风袭击

yz0330

目前来看能否击中日本都有点悬念了

cuihan1989

又学了好多