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[官方预报] 1416号台风“凤凰”官方机构预报

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发表于 2014-9-17 16:30 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
处在菲律宾以东的TD已被JMA定为TD b,可能在24小时命名为今年第16号台风“凤凰”
      
现开帖记录官方机构预报
      
熱帯低気圧
平成26年09月17日16時20分 発表


<17日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 11度50分(11.8度)
東経 132度40分(132.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<18日03時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 13度10分(13.2度)
東経 130度10分(130.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 90km(50NM)

<18日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 14度55分(14.9度)
東経 127度35分(127.6度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 994hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
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发表于 2014-9-18 07:41 | 显示全部楼层
16号凤凰命名
ZCZC 240
WTPQ21 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 1416 FUNG-WONG (1416)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  172100UTC 12.5N 128.9E POOR
MOVE  W 15KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  180NM
FORECAST
24HF  182100UTC 16.0N 124.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE  NW 15KT
PRES  990HPA
MXWD  045KT
GUST  065KT
45HF  191800UTC 18.9N 121.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE  NW 10KT
PRES  980HPA
MXWD  055KT
GUST  080KT
69HF  201800UTC 19.8N 123.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE  ENE SLOWLY
PRES  970HPA
MXWD  065KT
GUST  095KT =
NNNN
发表于 2014-9-18 07:43 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (FUNG-WONG)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
490 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
WITH GOOD BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171647Z
GCOM-W1 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS INCREASED CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. A
171307Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS WITH
SOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ELONGATION OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A
LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE
EARLY TAUS AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITIES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TD 16W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
STR BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND SLOW DOWN UNDER A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, WITH DIVERGENCE IN THE
FORECASTS BEYOND THAT TIME. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM SSTS IN
ADDITION TO A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE ALIGNMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT TD FUNG-WONG, TO BEGIN A SLOW
TURN POLEWARD DUE TO A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. EXPECT INTENSITY TO MAINTAIN AT 85 KNOTS FROM
TAU 48 THOUGH TAU 72 DUE TO SOME INCREASED SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF LAND INTERACTION WITH NORTHEASTERN LUZON.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF 25 DEGREES NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
STRUCTURE OF TD 16W. AROUND TAU 96, TD 16W WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND
WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH OF SHIKOKU DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT
MAINTAINS OVER THE KENSAI THROUGH KANTO REGIONS OF JAPAN THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED IN THESE LATER TAUS
WITH THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE TAKING A MUCH SHARPER RECURVE TO THE EAST
AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF DEPICTING A SLOWER TURN AND HAVE THE
SYSTEM TRACKING WEST OF THE FIRST ISLAND CHAIN. JTWC'S FORECAST IS
MORE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO OF THE STR TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUILDING IN MORE
SLOWLY AND NOT AS STRONG. DUE TO FAIR INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE
AND SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE RECURVE
SCENARIO, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY WEST OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-9-18 09:02 | 显示全部楼层
JMA:

台風第16号 (フォンウォン)
平成26年09月18日09時45分 発表

<18日09時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 13度00分(13.0度)

東経 128度40分(128.7度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧998hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域全域 330km(180NM)

<18日21時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 14度30分(14.5度)

東経 126度00分(126.0度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧994hPa
中心付近の最大風速20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)

<19日09時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 16度10分(16.2度)

東経 123度50分(123.8度)
進行方向、速さ北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧990hPa
中心付近の最大風速23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径140km(75NM)

<20日09時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域バシー海峡
予報円の中心北緯 18度40分(18.7度)

東経 121度40分(121.7度)
進行方向、速さ北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧980hPa
中心付近の最大風速30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域全域 280km(150NM)

<21日09時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域沖縄の南
予報円の中心北緯 21度05分(21.1度)

東経 124度25分(124.4度)
進行方向、速さ北東 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧970hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径410km(220NM)
暴風警戒域全域 500km(270NM)

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-9-18 10:39 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 180000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS FUNG-WONG 1416 (1416) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC
00HR 13.4N 128.3E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
250KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 30KM/H
P+12HR 15.5N 125.8E 990HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 17.5N 123.2E 975HPA 30M/S
P+36HR 18.3N 121.5E 975HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 19.8N 120.5E 968HPA 35M/S
P+60HR 21.8N 121.0E 955HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 24.2N 122.4E 960HPA 40M/S
P+96HR 27.9N 125.1E 960HPA 40M/S
P+120HR 30.4N 127.7E 970HPA 35M/S=
NNNN
发表于 2014-9-18 23:05 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第5报。预报分析报文

非常长。。

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND HAS BUILDING CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM A
PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO
35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE
LEVELS (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. TS
FUNG-WONG IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   B. THROUGH THE NEXT DAY, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND BREAK AS A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE NORTH. AS THE STR
BREAKS DOWN, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN UNDER THE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER RIDGE. WHILE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
PROXIMITY OF TS 16W TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON WILL POTENTIALLY
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. ALSO, THROUGH TAU 48 AND 72, THE PROXIMITY TO
THE TAIWANESE COAST COULD ALSO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ALL SHOWING THE
SYSTEM ENTERING THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND PROCEEDING POLEWARD,
ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER TRANSLATIONAL SPEED.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL RE-
ORIENT THE STR DRIVING FUNG-WONG NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH MOST
SHOWING A BROAD RECURVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A LARGE
VARIANCE IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AFTER TAU 72 AS MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW DEEP THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND HOW THE TROUGH AFFECTS THE STR.
NAVGEM AND GFDN REMAIN OUTLIERS AS THEY AMPLIFY THE RIDGE AND DRIVE
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE STR AND HOW DEEP THE TROUGH DEVELOPS, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-9-19 07:44 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第6报,预报分析报文

更长。。。

WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS
AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS
(10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. TS FUNG-
WONG IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   B. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST, AND THROUGH NORTHERN LUZON, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE EAST.  A RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE NORTH AS THE STR TO THE EAST REORIENTS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN LUZON AND THE EASTERN SPINE OF TAIWAN, THE
INTENSITY OF FUNG-WONG IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS DEPICT THREE
SCENARIOS. THE FIRST, AND LEAST LIKELY, SCENARIO HAS THE SYSTEM
STRAIGHT-RUNNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD REQUIRE THE RIDGE OVER
CHINA TO REBUILD AND EXTEND ACROSS TAIWAN INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA.
BASED ON A 181200Z 500MB ANALYSIS, THE RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN
RETREATING, MAKING THIS SITUATION, FAVORED BY GFDN, VERY UNLIKELY.
THE NAVGEM, HWRF AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOW THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAIWAN AND SLOWING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN EAST CHINA SEA THROUGH TAU
72. THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE REBUILDING
AND REORIENTING STR TO THE EAST, WHICH WOULD BECOME ELONGATED NORTH
TO SOUTH. WHILE THE JENS, JGSM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR, THEY
CARRY TS 16W TO THE NORTHEAST BEYOND TAU 48 AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE STR, WHICH IS NOT PREDICTED TO EXTEND
AS FAR NORTH-SOUTH. ALL SOLUTIONS TAKE FUNG-WONG FARTHER WEST OF THE
RYUKYU ISLANDS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THIS TRIFURCATION
IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND TAU 48.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODELS DEPICT THREE SEPARATE SCENARIOS
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH THE WESTERN SCENARIO RUNNING THE SYSTEM
INTO CHINA, THE NORTHERN OFF THE COAST OF SHANGHAI AND THE FINAL
POSSIBILITY OF A RECURVE TAKING THE SYSTEM JUST SHORT OF THE KYUSHU
COAST. THE MAJOR FACTOR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IS THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STR TO THE EAST. MODELS AGREE ON A SLIGHT
BREAK IN THE PERSISTENT JET FEATURE AROUND TAU 120. WITH REGARD TO
THE STR, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS 16W TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  IN
CONTRAST, THE JAPANESE MODELS DEPICT FUNG-WONG TURNING AROUND A
WEAKER STR INTO THE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 96 AND STARTING TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL SCENARIOS,
SLOWING THE TRACK SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS
SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT CONTINUING THE TREND OF THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST UNDER THE WESTERLIES AND NORTH OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DUE
TO THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE TRACK IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-9-19 07:46 | 显示全部楼层
中央气象台报文 及其他机构预报图

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 182100 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS FUNG-WONG 1416 (1416) INITIAL TIME 182100 UTC
00HR 17.0N 123.7E 995HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 25KM/H
P+12HR 18.4N 121.2E 990HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 19.3N 120.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 21.5N 120.1E 980HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 24.6N 120.7E 985HPA 25M/S
P+60HR 26.7N 121.8E 982HPA 28M/S
P+72HR 28.9N 123.1E 975HPA 33M/S
P+96HR 31.4N 125.8E 975HPA 33M/S
P+120HR 33.2N 129.0E 982HPA 28M/S=
NNNN
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发表于 2014-9-19 08:46 | 显示全部楼层
台湾发布“海警”

警    報    種    類:海上颱風警報。
颱 風 強 度 及 編 號:輕度颱風,編號第16號(國際命名:FUNG-WONG,中文譯名:鳳凰)

警    報    報    數:第1報。
中    心    氣    壓:990百帕。
目    前    時    間:19日8時。
中    心    位    置:北緯 17.3 度,東經 123.2 度,即在鵝鑾鼻的南南東方約 560 公里之海面上。

暴    風    半    徑:7級風暴風半徑 120 公里,10級風暴風半徑 - 公里。

預 測 速 度 及 方 向:以每小時20轉15公里速度,向西北西轉北北西進行。

近 中 心 最 大 風 速:每秒 23 公尺(約每小時 83 公里),相當於 9 級風。

瞬 間 之 最 大 陣 風:每秒 30 公尺(約每小時 108 公里),相當於 11 級風。

預    測    時    間:20日8時。
預    測    位    置:北緯 19.6 度,東經 120.5 度,即在鵝鑾鼻的南方約 260 公里之海面上。

颱    風    動    態:根據最新氣象資料顯示,第16號颱風中心目前在鵝鑾鼻南南東方海面,向西北西轉北北西移動,其暴風圈對巴士海峽將構成威脅。

警 戒 區 域 及 事 項:巴士海峽及東沙島海面航行及作業船隻請嚴加戒備。

*恆春半島、臺灣東半部及西南部沿海地區有較強陣風,並有長浪發生,前往海邊活動請注意安全。

下次警報預定發布時間為 9月19日11時30分




发表于 2014-9-20 00:34 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第9报,预报分析报文

依然好长,信心不足。

WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON. A 191000Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE 37 GHZ IMAGE ADDITIONALLY REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC WHICH
HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP ALONG WITH THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND PERSISTENCE FROM A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS
THAT INDICATED 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS FUNG-WONG IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTH THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY AS THE CURRENT STEERING STR RE-ORIENTS AND ANOTHER STR
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND
WEAKENS. TS 15W WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS ACROSS THE LUZON STRAIT AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST
OF TAIWAN NEAR TAU 36 AND WEAKEN AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
TAIWAN IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH ALL MODELS
INDICATING THE NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PROCEED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. JGSM, AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE REMAIN THE RIGHT
MOST OUTLIERS KEEPING THE STR MORE POLEWARD ORIENTED ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO PROCEED MORE NORTH. GFDN, NAVGEM, GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN, AND COAMPS-TC INDICATE A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STR
ORIENTED THAT AMPLIFIES DRIVING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
MAINLAND CHINA. AFTER TAU 72 AND LAND FALL INTO CHINA, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH
WILL INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND ACCELERATE THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST, COMPLETING ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE THE VARYING EXTENT OF STR
DEPICTED IN THE MODEL TRACKERS.//
NNNN
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