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[综合新闻] 9月13日:G3级强地磁暴警报

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发表于 2014-9-12 14:30 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
受太阳活动活跃影响,美国空间天气预报中心(SWPC)发布地磁暴警报,其中,明天下午达到G3级强地磁暴概率为99%,R3级大面积无线电阻断概率为50%,如下各报文:

2014-09-12 01:15 UTC  The First CME Has Arrived

The first of the two CMEs predicted to arrive today made its appearance right on time. G1 ((Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected to begin within the next few hours with a maximum projected level of G2 (Moderate) storms for September 12th. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch is still in effect for September 13th due to the combined influence of this CME and the one projected to arrive late on the 12th. G1 (Minor) storming is likely to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption on September 10th is expected to persist for the next few days with a possible slight increase with the arrival of the CMEs.

报文:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 245
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 12 0221 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2014 Sep 12 0220 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Sep 12 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 751
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 12 0156 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Sep 12 0155 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

3天预报

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 12-Sep 14 2014 is 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 12-Sep 14 2014

            Sep 12     Sep 13     Sep 14
00-03UT        3          6 (G2)     4     
03-06UT        4          7 (G3)     5 (G1)
06-09UT        6 (G2)     6 (G2)     5 (G1)
09-12UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     3     
15-18UT        4          4          3     
18-21UT        4          5 (G1)     3     
21-00UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on day
one (12 Sep) due to effects from the 09 Sep and 10 Sep CMEs. G3 (Strong)
geomagnetic storms are expected on day two (13 Sep) with continued CME
effects. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected for day three
(14 Sep) as CME influence begins to subside.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2014

              Sep 12  Sep 13  Sep 14
S1 or greater   99%     99%     90%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected to persist for
the next three days (12-14 Sep) and will likely see an additional
enhancement early on day one (12 Sep) as the CME arrives at Earth.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 11 2014 1526 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2014

              Sep 12        Sep 13        Sep 14
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   50%           50%           50%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a
chance for (R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three days
(12-14 Sep) with Region 2157 (S14W24) or 2158 (N16W12) being the likely
source of activity.


空间天气各项目等级说明,请见:http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html
发表于 2014-9-14 15:38 | 显示全部楼层
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