90W和91W能否发展

海绵宝宝

大家看看这两个有发展的可能不？
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZSEP2014//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
125.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030149Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING
TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND SLOW
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1N 136.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 142 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 030103Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
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将臣

这种环流波动强度，不利副高稳定，即是辐合点不稳定和各层不容易垂直。

至于低纬的91W，则是到菲东如果纬度不能北上，会被高空高风速破坏。