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[天体观测] 太阳活动出现前所未有的后置高峰

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发表于 2014-8-13 11:26 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
美国NASA 刚刚发布黑子报告确认:太阳活动出现观测史上前所未有的后置高峰。

“The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in late 2013. The smoothed sunspot number reached 75.4 in November 2013) so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards this second peak over the last five months and has now surpassed the level of the first peak (66.9 in February 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. ”

现在我们处于太阳活动24周期,文革以后,我们经历21-23 三个太阳活动大周期,这是文革以后第一个小周期。为什么出现后置高峰,NASA没有解释,以人类目前认知水平,也无法解释。

不可思议的是,本站老C(Prof.),在《老C模式--仅供娱乐》第8楼中,用混沌模型神奇的运算出类似波形。
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发表于 2014-8-14 08:04 | 显示全部楼层
有外国人预测,第25太阳周期会很弱的。大虾们推测下,高峰能不能低于60?
 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-14 11:44 | 显示全部楼层
dpjs1111 发表于 2014-8-14 08:04
有外国人预测,第25太阳周期会很弱的。大虾们推测下,高峰能不能低于60?

老C 2010年跑出来的结果,是跟24周期差不多,他昨天说会找时间让学生再跑一下,到时看看。

未明机制但有规律的东西,混沌模型比较好用。
发表于 2014-9-17 21:35 | 显示全部楼层
NASA

Updated 2014/09/10


The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in late 2013. The smoothed sunspot number reached 75.4 in November 2013) so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards this second peak over the last five months and has now surpassed the level of the first peak (66.9 in February 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
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