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楼主: 将臣
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[官方预报] 1411号台风“夏浪”(1411W)官方机构预报报文

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-3 19:57 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第24报:预测分析较长篇幅分析了环流与路径的不确定性

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH A 26 NM ROUND EYE,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A
030536Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCIPIENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING WAS INDICATED IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DVORAK FINAL T ESTIMATES DECREASED TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS),
HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS). AS
INDICATED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED
VIGOROUS, ESPECIALLY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, DESPITE SOME PRESSURE ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING SOUTH OF JAPAN. RECENT 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE A WEAKENING,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED SOUTH OF
CENTRAL JAPAN WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM TAIWAN TO THE
RYUKYU ISLANDS. STY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS, DUE TO THE POSITION OF TD 12W, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW STY 11W TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF GFDN AND COAMPS-TC, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STR, THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 105-NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. STY 11W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 12 THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE ERC.   
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WITH GREATER SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN, CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, HOWEVER,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUILD THE STR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO VARYING
DEGREES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AS A MINOR EXTENSION OF THE STR BUILDS TEMPORARILY
NEAR KYUSHU, JAPAN. IN ADDITION TO COAMPS-TC AND GFDN, GFS AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SHOW A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD SHIKOKU
AND CENTRAL JAPAN, HOWEVER, GFS APPEARS TO TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO THE
STR, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF AND JGSM SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 TO OFFSET GFS, COAMPS-TC AND
GFDN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU
24 AND THE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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发表于 2014-8-4 08:29 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM
WITH A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. A 031810Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DESPITE SOME
PRESSURE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTH OF JAPAN. RECENT 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE
A WEAKENING, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
SOUTH OF CENTRAL JAPAN WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
TAIWAN TO THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. STY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. JTWC FORECAST TRACK AT TAU 72, 96, AND 120 HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS WARNING INDICATING A SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHERN JAPAN DUE TO
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
   B. STY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY TAU 24, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN JAPAN, CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOWING STY 11W TO
TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. STY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
DESPITE IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUILD THE STR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO
VARYING DEGREES. STY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY
SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO
THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 TO OFFSET GFS, COAMPS-TC AND GFDN. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU 24 AND
THE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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发表于 2014-8-4 23:09 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THE EIR,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 041116Z GMI 89
GHZ IMAGE AND A 040834Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ERODING INNER
EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A BROKEN SECONDARY EYEWALL. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN ON-GOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WHICH
CORRELATES TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
FURTHER EXACERBATED BY PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTH OF JAPAN.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, REVEALS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND ALSO INDICATES A TUTT CELL NEAR 28N 142E, WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO PROVIDE A POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. RECENT 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE A WEAKENING, NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED SOUTH OF CENTRAL JAPAN
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM TAIWAN TO THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TY 11W TO TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 115-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
DUE TO THE ERC AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VWS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN NEAR TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUFLOW IMPROVES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WITH GREATER SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL, THE DYNAMIC
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK
DIRECTION TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN, HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN,
CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUILD THE
STR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO VARYING DEGREES. GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT
A VERY LARGE SYSTEM, THEREFORE, GFS BREAKS DOWN THE STR QUICKLY AND
DEPICTS FASTER TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH TRACK SPEEDS 08 TO 10 KNOTS AND IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72 AND THE DIFFERENT
DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. TY 11W SHOULD INTENSIFY
AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASES. NEAR
TAU 120, TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED OVER THE EAST
SEA.//
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发表于 2014-8-5 09:29 | 显示全部楼层
台風第11号 (ハーロン)
平成26年08月05日09時50分 発表

                               
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<05日09時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 19度05分(19.1度)

東経 129度50分(129.8度)
進行方向、速さ北 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧950hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(115kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 150km(80NM)
15m/s以上の強風域南側 440km(240NM)

北側 330km(180NM)

                               
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<06日09時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯 21度55分(21.9度)

東経 130度40分(130.7度)
進行方向、速さ北北東 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧940hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径160km(85NM)
暴風警戒域全域 310km(170NM)

                               
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<07日09時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域南大東島の南約120km
予報円の中心北緯 24度40分(24.7度)

東経 131度20分(131.3度)
進行方向、速さ北 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧940hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 440km(240NM)

                               
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<08日09時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域九州の南
予報円の中心北緯 27度20分(27.3度)

東経 130度35分(130.6度)
進行方向、速さ北 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧945hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 440km(240NM)

                               
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<09日09時の予報>
存在地域九州の南
予報円の中心北緯 29度05分(29.1度)

東経 130度00分(130.0度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 ゆっくり
予報円の半径520km(280NM)

                               
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<10日09時の予報>
存在地域九州
予報円の中心北緯 31度00分(31.0度)

東経 130度25分(130.4度)
進行方向、速さ北 ゆっくり
予報円の半径700km(375NM)

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发表于 2014-8-5 13:57 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH HINT OF AN
EYE FEATURE FORMING. BASED ON THE MSI, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. MODERATE (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM, CONTRIBUTING TO HALONG'S WEAKENING TREND. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES NORTHWARD, THERE WILL BE GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL
AS A POLEWARD CHANNEL OVER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE TYPHOON
PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
   B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE STR, WITH THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST INDUCING A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE TRACK IN THROUGH TAU 48. BETWEEN
TAUS 48 AND 72, HALONG'S MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE THE STR,
WITH THE SYSTEM ROUNDING ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VWS IN
THE REGION, AND THEN RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH
SPEED AND TRACK OF THE STORM. MOST MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN AROUND TAU 120, WITH GFDN BEING THE
OUTLIER, RECURVING SOUTH OF JAPAN INTO PACIFIC. DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE DIFFERENT
INTERPRETATION OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
STR, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AFTER TAU
72. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
SOUTHERN JAPAN AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.//
NNNN
发表于 2014-8-5 20:46 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO RE-
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR
EYE FORMING. DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS BROKEN BUT HAS SEEN MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS WITH A MORE SYM-
METRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
CATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO INTERACT,
CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (20 TO 30
KNOTS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. THIS INTERACTION IS CAUSING THE
WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY BUT IS
ALSO PROVIDING THE AMPLY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD SUPPORT
THE STEADY INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN IN
THE MODERATE VWS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING.
   B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE STR, WITH THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST INDUCING A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BETWEEN
TAUS 36 AND 72, HALONG'S MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE THE STR,
WITH THE SYSTEM ROUNDING ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY BY TAU 72. TY 11W WILL
MAINTAIN IN INTENSITY IN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VWS. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36 THE
RELAXATION IN THE VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 48. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT TAU 72 IS EXPECTED AS TY 11W STARTS TO SEE
INCREASED MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH
SPEED AND TRACK OF THE STORM. MOST MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN AROUND TAU 108, WITH GFDN REMAINING THE
EASTERN OUTLIER, INDICATING TY 11W WILL RECURVE SOUTH OF JAPAN.
ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120 AS
THE SYSTEM SEES INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTER-
LIES AND THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN FURTHER WEAKENING
THE LLCC. BY TAU 120 MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE START OF EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BUT DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS,
WITH REGARD TO THE DIFFERENT INTERPRETATION OF THE TROUGH AND THE
STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE STR, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST AFTER TAU 72.//
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-6 19:22 | 显示全部楼层
补充JMA报文记录:

JMA在8月3日15JST —— 4日06 JST,给予夏浪915hpa-105KT的猛烈强度等级
发表于 2014-8-9 06:28 | 显示全部楼层
台風第11号 (ハーロン)
平成26年08月09日06時50分 発表

<09日06時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        種子島の東南東約120km
中心位置        北緯 30度05分(30.1度)
東経 132度05分(132.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        950hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 170km(90NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        東側 500km(270NM)
西側 390km(210NM)

<09日07時の推定>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        種子島の東南東約110km
中心位置        北緯 30度10分(30.2度)
東経 132度05分(132.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        950hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 170km(90NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        東側 500km(270NM)
西側 390km(210NM)

<09日18時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        足摺岬の南南西約100km
予報円の中心        北緯 31度50分(31.8度)
東経 132度40分(132.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        950hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 260km(140NM)

<10日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        丸亀市付近
予報円の中心        北緯 34度25分(34.4度)
東経 133度50分(133.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        960hPa
最大風速        30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速        45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径        160km(85NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 310km(170NM)

<11日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        日本海
予報円の中心        北緯 40度10分(40.2度)
東経 134度40分(134.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧        970hPa
最大風速        30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速        45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径        330km(180NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 500km(270NM)

<12日03時の予報>
強さ        -
温帯低気圧
存在地域        沿海州
予報円の中心        北緯 45度10分(45.2度)
東経 135度00分(135.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        976hPa
最大風速        30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速        40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径        460km(250NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 650km(350NM)
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发表于 2014-8-10 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
台風第11号 (ハーロン)
平成26年08月10日08時40分 発表
<10日08時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        徳島市の南西約50km
中心位置        北緯 33度50分(33.8度)
        東経 134度10分(134.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        南東側 170km(90NM)
        北西側 130km(70NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 500km(270NM)
        北西側 390km(210NM)
<10日09時の推定>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        徳島市の西南西約30km
中心位置        北緯 34度00分(34.0度)
        東経 134度20分(134.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        南東側 170km(90NM)
        北西側 130km(70NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 500km(270NM)
        北西側 390km(210NM)
<10日18時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        輪島市の西約130km
予報円の中心        北緯 37度30分(37.5度)
        東経 135度25分(135.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 40km/h(21kt)
中心気圧        970hPa
最大風速        30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速        45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 260km(140NM)
        北西側 220km(120NM)
<11日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        日本海
予報円の中心        北緯 40度55分(40.9度)
        東経 135度55分(135.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北 30km/h(17kt)
中心気圧        970hPa
最大風速        30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速        45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径        160km(85NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 310km(170NM)
        北西側 280km(150NM)
<12日03時の予報>
強さ        -
        温帯低気圧
存在地域        沿海州
予報円の中心        北緯 45度35分(45.6度)
        東経 135度55分(135.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        980hPa
最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        330km(180NM)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-8-10 22:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-8-10 22:28 编辑

JMA居然预测还能加强为TY
      
台風第11号 (ハーロン)
平成26年08月10日21時50分 発表
<10日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        輪島市の北約170km
中心位置        北緯 38度55分(38.9度)
        東経 136度50分(136.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 50km/h(26kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速        40m/s(80kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 500km(270NM)
        北西側 390km(210NM)

<11日09時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        奥尻島の西約190km
予報円の中心        北緯 42度00分(42.0度)
        東経 137度05分(137.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧        970hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 200km(110NM)

<11日21時の予報>
強さ        -
        温帯低気圧
存在地域        日本海
予報円の中心        北緯 44度30分(44.5度)
        東経 137度00分(137.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        976hPa
最大風速        30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速        45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径        160km(85NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 260km(140NM)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
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