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[官方预报] 1411号台风“夏浪”(1411W)官方机构预报报文

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发表于 2014-7-31 18:35 | 显示全部楼层
S 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 10:00 UTC, 31 July 2014

<Analyses at 31/09 UTC>
Scale        -
Intensity        -
Center position        N15°10'(15.2°)
E141°00'(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement        W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure        992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more        SE330km(180NM)
NW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 01/09 UTC>
Intensity        -
Center position of probability circle        N15°35'(15.6°)
E138°55'(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement        W Slowly
Central pressure        980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle        130km(70NM)
Storm warning area        ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity        Strong
Center position of probability circle        N16°00'(16.0°)
E138°10'(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement        Almost stationary
Central pressure        965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle        200km(110NM)
Storm warning area        ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity        Strong
Center position of probability circle        N17°10'(17.2°)
E136°40'(136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement        NW Slowly
Central pressure        960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center        40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed        55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle        300km(160NM)
Storm warning area        ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle        N19°50'(19.8°)
E136°10'(136.2°)
Direction and speed of movement        NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle        370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle        N22°55'(22.9°)
E136°05'(136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement        N 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle        480km(260NM)
 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-1 00:29 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
REVEALS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED WHICH HAS OBSCURED THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311037Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED WHILE BEGINNING TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A
POSITION FIX FROM PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION
WHILE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
DEPICTS STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES
TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BEING OFFSET BY VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GROW. TS 11W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AND WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION
INTO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, DESPITE THE NORTHERLY VWS, WILL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION REACHING 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. TS HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WEAKENED PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS INTO NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND VWS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND SLIGHTLY DIVERGES AFTER
WHICH WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AS IT
MODIFIES AND WEAKENS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-1 00:31 | 显示全部楼层
台風第11号 (ハーロン)
平成26年08月01日01時00分 発表

<01日00時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
存在地域マリアナ諸島
中心位置北緯 15度00分(15.0度)

東経 140度25分(140.4度)
進行方向、速さ西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧990hPa
中心付近の最大風速23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(65kt)
15m/s以上の強風域南東側 330km(180NM)

北西側 220km(120NM)

<02日00時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 15度35分(15.6度)

東経 138度30分(138.5度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧980hPa
中心付近の最大風速30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域全域 190km(100NM)

<02日21時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 16度10分(16.2度)

東経 137度35分(137.6度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧965hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域全域 280km(150NM)

<03日21時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 17度30分(17.5度)

東経 136度25分(136.4度)
進行方向、速さ北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧960hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 390km(210NM)

<04日21時の予報>
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯 20度10分(20.2度)

東経 135度30分(135.5度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 15km/h(7kt)
予報円の半径370km(200NM)

<05日21時の予報>
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯 24度00分(24.0度)

東経 134度10分(134.2度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 20km/h(10kt)
予報円の半径480km(260NM)

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发表于 2014-8-2 00:21 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第17报 分析预测报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM NORTH
OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE ANIMATED INFRARED AND 1025 SSMIS SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE
SYSTEM WRAPPING TIGHTLY WITH BETTER CONSOLIDATION IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND SATELITTLE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DUE TO A GOOD AGREEMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
CONSIDERATION OF THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION MENTIONED ABOVE. WHILE
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOP MITIGATES THIS FACTOR SHOWING GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF
CENTRAL JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE ITS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AS IT
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72, TS HALONG WILL BEGIN ITS TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STR.
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW
FOR A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT; 11W WILL SPEED UP
SLIGHTLY AND INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. TS HALONG WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TAUS AS THE MONSOON DEPRESSION, CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
SHANGHAI, IS ABSORBED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MODIFY THE STR.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, WITH
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF JAPAN WILL BE MAIN STEERING FACTOR,
PROVING IN A RECURVE SCENARIO OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. NAVGEM SHOWS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND CHINA AFFECTING THE STORMS TRACK,
FORCING THE SYSTEM INTO THE YELLOW SEA. THUS, JTWC HAS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.//
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-2 12:51 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第19报,预测分析报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 30
NM DIAMETER EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 020024Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SIGNIFICANT ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED IN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS DUE
TO THE ONSET OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE; THEREFORE, THE PEAK
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 125 KNOTS AT TAU 48 BASED ON AN
OVERALL INCREASE IN DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
   B. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48, A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN JAPAN IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD, MODIFYING THE STR AND CAUSING TY HALONG TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VWS, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 48. BY TAU 72, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS DIRECTLY NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, CAUSING
TY 11W TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND DUE TO CONVERGENCE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT TO THE
EAST OF TY 11 AND WILL ASSUME THE STEERING PATTERN, PERMITTING TY
HALONG TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT BY TAU 120 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-2 23:26 | 显示全部楼层
NMC 20时报文:

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 021200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 021200 UTC
00HR 15.1N 135.1E 925HPA 58M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 12KM/H
P+12HR 15.5N 133.8E 915HPA 62M/S
P+24HR 16.2N 132.5E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 17.4N 131.1E 910HPA 65M/S
P+48HR 18.3N 130.5E 915HPA 62M/S
P+60HR 19.6N 130.3E 920HPA 60M/S
P+72HR 21.3N 130.3E 925HPA 58M/S
P+96HR 25.2N 130.0E 930HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 28.5N 129.5E 935HPA 52M/S=
 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-2 23:34 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第23报 预测分析:

WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 11W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 75 KNOTS (60
TO 135 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 130-NM DIAMETER, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH A 29-NM
ROUND EYE, THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND TRACK MOTION. A 021013Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH EXTENSIVE
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 127 KNOTS (T6.5) TO 140
KNOTS (T7.0). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, STY 11W HAS
MAINTAINED EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
SYSTEM TO INSULATE THE CORE CONVECTION FROM PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW. STY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE RECENT 500MB ANALYSES DEPICT A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR
POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDING
FROM TAIWAN TO ABOUT 131E LONGITUDE. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS DUE TO
THE POSITION OF TS 12W, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STY 11W TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
UKMO, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH A 165-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. STY
11W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.   
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WITH GREATER SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN, CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, HOWEVER,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUILD THE STR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO VARYING
DEGREES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD
TOWARD KYUSHU DUE TO THE EXTENT OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU 36 AND THE
DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-3 01:11 | 显示全部楼层
台風第11号 (ハーロン)
平成26年08月03日01時00分 発表
<03日00時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ非常に強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 15度00分(15.0度)

東経 134度50分(134.8度)
進行方向、速さ西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧935hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速65m/s(130kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 130km(70NM)
15m/s以上の強風域南側 330km(180NM)

北側 280km(150NM)
<04日00時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 16度10分(16.2度)

東経 132度50分(132.8度)
進行方向、速さ北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧925hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(100kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(140kt)
予報円の半径130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域全域 280km(150NM)
<04日21時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 17度55分(17.9度)

東経 131度20分(131.3度)
進行方向、速さ北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧925hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(100kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(140kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域全域 350km(190NM)
<05日21時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯 20度05分(20.1度)

東経 130度50分(130.8度)
進行方向、速さ北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧925hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(100kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(140kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 440km(240NM)
<06日21時の予報>
存在地域日本の南
予報円の中心北緯 24度05分(24.1度)

東経 131度00分(131.0度)
進行方向、速さ北 20km/h(10kt)
予報円の半径370km(200NM)
<07日21時の予報>
存在地域九州の南
予報円の中心北緯 27度55分(27.9度)

東経 129度50分(129.8度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 20km/h(10kt)
予報円の半径480km(260NM)

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-3 10:27 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第22报:140KT

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 783 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL 25-
NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS EYE FEATURE WITH WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. A 021825Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
THE EYEWALL HAS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS, AND COULD BE
THE RESULT OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 11W IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48, A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN JAPAN IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD, MODIFYING THE STR AND CAUSING TY HALONG TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING STY 11W TO
MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT TO THE EAST OF
STY 11W AND WILL ASSUME THE STEERING PATTERN, PERMITTING TY HALONG
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU 36 AND THE
DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-8-3 10:29 | 显示全部楼层
中央气象台:62M/S,下报预计巅峰65M/S

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 030000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC
00HR 15.3N 134.0E 915HPA 62M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 15KM/H
P+12HR 16.2N 132.6E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 17.0N 131.2E 910HPA 65M/S
P+36HR 17.9N 130.6E 915HPA 62M/S
P+48HR 19.3N 130.3E 925HPA 58M/S
P+60HR 20.8N 130.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 22.9N 130.3E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 26.2N 129.6E 940HPA 50M/S
P+120HR 29.0N 127.6E 950HPA 45M/S=
NNNN
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