世纪气象云

 找回密码
 注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

楼主: yz0330
收起左侧

[官方预报] 1410W(台风麦德姆)官方机构预报专帖

[复制链接]
发表于 2014-7-19 14:26 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第7报

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A DIMPLE FEATURE -
PRECURSOR TO THE FORMATION OF AN EYE - AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
FURTHER DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS JAPAN WEAKENS THE STR. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE,
PLUS PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS
THE CYCLONE HEADS TOWARD TAIWAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS MATMO WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS THE STR REMAINS SOLID, UNPERTURBED BY A SECONDARY,
ALBEIT WEAKER, TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF TAIWAN AND THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 85 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT
OUTLIERS.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-19 15:43 | 显示全部楼层
台風第10号 (マットゥモ)
平成26年07月19日16時00分 発表

<19日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 11度20分(11.3度)
東経 130度00分(130.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 280km(150NM)
北西側 220km(120NM)

<20日15時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 13度30分(13.5度)
東経 127度55分(127.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        960hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 240km(130NM)

<21日15時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 16度20分(16.3度)
東経 124度35分(124.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        950hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 390km(210NM)

<22日15時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        バシー海峡
予報円の中心        北緯 19度35分(19.6度)
東経 120度55分(120.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        940hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速        65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径        390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 540km(290NM)

<23日15時の予報>
存在地域        台湾海峡
予報円の中心        北緯 22度20分(22.3度)
東経 117度55分(117.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(10kt)
予報円の半径        650km(350NM)

<24日15時の予報>
存在地域        華南
予報円の中心        北緯 24度55分(24.9度)
東経 114度50分(114.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(10kt)
予報円の半径        850km(450NM)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-19 21:12 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第8报:路径北调

WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 614 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME OBSCURED BY BUILDING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 190610Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI LOOP AND SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSETTING BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72,
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING ACROSS JAPAN. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALONG THE TRACK AND WILL FURTHER SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 10W WILL CONTINUE REMAIN ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINS SOLID, UNPERTURBED BY A SECONDARY TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT
APPROACHES TAIWAN BY TAU 96. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL INTO THE CHINESE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE
TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT OUTLIERS.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-20 12:26 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第11报

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE HALF-EYE FEATURE IN THE 192056Z
AMSR-2 PASS AND ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 192330Z ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
ITS LIFESPAN. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH
DECREASING VWS AND THE ANTICIPATED OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE PLUS THE PERENNIALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL FUEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES TAIWAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY MATMO WILL DRAG ACROSS CENTRAL TAIWAN,
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND FINALLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE
LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS
THAT ARE RIGHT OUTLIERS.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-20 12:28 | 显示全部楼层
台風第10号 (マットゥモ)
平成26年07月20日12時45分 発表
<20日12時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 12度55分(12.9度)

東経 129度30分(129.5度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧975hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(95kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域南東側 330km(180NM)

北西側 220km(120NM)
<21日12時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 16度30分(16.5度)

東経 127度10分(127.2度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧960hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域全域 240km(130NM)
<22日09時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 19度25分(19.4度)

東経 124度25分(124.4度)
進行方向、速さ北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧950hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域全域 390km(210NM)
<23日09時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域バシー海峡
予報円の中心北緯 22度00分(22.0度)

東経 121度25分(121.4度)
進行方向、速さ北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧940hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 440km(240NM)
<24日09時の予報>
存在地域台湾海峡
予報円の中心北緯 25度50分(25.8度)

東経 119度35分(119.6度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 20km/h(10kt)
予報円の半径520km(280NM)
<25日09時の予報>
存在地域長江下流域
予報円の中心北緯 29度10分(29.2度)

東経 118度00分(118.0度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 15km/h(9kt)
予報円の半径700km(375NM)

更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-20 12:32 | 显示全部楼层
中央气象台

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 200300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MATMO 1410 (1410) INITIAL TIME 200300 UTC
00HR 13.3N 129.5E 960HPA 40M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
350KM SOUTHEAST
350KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 23KM/H
P+12HR 15.5N 128.7E 945HPA 48M/S
P+24HR 17.7N 127.3E 940HPA 52M/S
P+36HR 19.8N 125.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 21.5N 124.6E 925HPA 58M/S
P+60HR 23.5N 122.8E 925HPA 58M/S
P+72HR 24.6N 121.2E 965HPA 38M/S
P+96HR 27.3N 117.5E 998HPA 16M/S=
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-20 21:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-7-20 21:58 编辑

台風第10号 (マットゥモ)
平成26年07月20日21時50分 発表
<20日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 14度00分(14.0度)
東経 127度50分(127.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 975hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s(95kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 南東側 330km(180NM)
北西側 220km(120NM)

<21日21時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 18度05分(18.1度)
東経 125度00分(125.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 965hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s(100kt)
予報円の半径 140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 240km(130NM)

<22日21時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 バシー海峡
予報円の中心 北緯 21度10分(21.2度)
東経 122度10分(122.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 955hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 390km(210NM)

<23日21時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 台湾海峡
予報円の中心 北緯 24度30分(24.5度)
東経 119度30分(119.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 960hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 520km(280NM)

<24日21時の予報>
存在地域 華中
予報円の中心 北緯 27度35分(27.6度)
東経 117度35分(117.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15km/h(9kt)
予報円の半径 650km(350NM)

<25日21時の予報>
存在地域 長江下流域
予報円の中心 北緯 31度00分(31.0度)
東経 117度40分(117.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北 15km/h(9kt)
予報円の半径 850km(450NM)




ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 201200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MATMO 1410 (1410) INITIAL TIME 201200 UTC
00HR 14.2N 128.5E 970HPA 35M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
350KM SOUTHEAST
350KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 30KM NORTHEAST
30KM SOUTHEAST
30KM SOUTHWEST
30KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 17KM/H
P+12HR 16.0N 127.9E 960HPA 40M/S
P+24HR 18.0N 126.6E 950HPA 45M/S
P+36HR 20.0N 124.8E 940HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 22.0N 122.6E 925HPA 58M/S
P+60HR 24.0N 120.9E 955HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 25.4N 119.7E 980HPA 30M/S
P+96HR 28.7N 117.6E 998HPA 16M/S=
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-21 10:18 | 显示全部楼层
台風第10号 (マットゥモ)
平成26年07月21日09時45分 発表
<21日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 15度50分(15.8度)
東経 127度35分(127.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 965hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s(100kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 130km(70NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 南側 440km(240NM)
北側 280km(150NM)

<22日09時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 19度40分(19.7度)
東経 124度25分(124.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 955hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 280km(150NM)

<23日09時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 与那国島の南南西約210km
予報円の中心 北緯 22度50分(22.8度)
東経 122度05分(122.1度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 945hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 370km(200NM)

<24日09時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 台湾海峡
予報円の中心 北緯 25度55分(25.9度)
東経 119度50分(119.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 960hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 440km(240NM)

<25日09時の予報>
存在地域 華中
予報円の中心 北緯 30度50分(30.8度)
東経 120度35分(120.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北 20km/h(12kt)
予報円の半径 650km(350NM)

<26日09時の予報>
存在地域 黄海
予報円の中心 北緯 35度50分(35.8度)
東経 124度05分(124.1度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 25km/h(14kt)
予報円の半径 850km(450NM)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-21 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 597 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FROM A LOW
REFLECTIVITY ARC ON A 202348Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NOW AT 10-15 KNOTS, HAS
BEGUN TO RELAX AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHED THE RIDGE AXIS. ALSO, THE
VWS REMAINS OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 10W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPROVING WITH DECREASING VWS AND THE
ADDITION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
100 KNOTS, POSSIBLY GREATER, BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN
AND THE TAIWAN STRAIT. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MADE LANDFALL
OVER THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN
POLEWARD. HOWEVER, RAPID DECAYING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF LAND. TY 10W WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN THE YELLOW SEA
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU 108. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-21 23:30 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第17报

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPENED WITH AN INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE, AS
EVIDENT IN A 211100Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY TIGHTLY-WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 10W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS  AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN POLEWARD. BY
TAU 72, TY 10W WILL BE WELL INLAND AND THEN RE-CURVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, RAPID DECAYING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. TY 10W WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER IN
THE YELLOW SEA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, BUT REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|世纪气象云 | | | 关于我们

GMT+8, 2019-4-20 03:01 , Processed in 0.112374 second(s), 18 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表