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[官方预报] 1410W(台风麦德姆)官方机构预报专帖

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发表于 2014-7-16 21:33 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
位于1409号台风“威马逊”东侧的热带云簇中,93W已获得明显发展,7月16日下午JTWC定强20kt,随后发出TCFA;晚上JMA对系统发出GW(烈风警报,即台风生成预警)。
     
预计24小时内,系统将发展为10W,并获得命名成为1410号台风“麦德姆”
      
现开帖对官方机构关于此系统的预报进行转发。

世纪气象追击分析帖:http://www.21cma.net/thread-11310-1-1.html
      
JMA:TD a[GW]

a-00.png
** WTPQ20 RJTD 161200 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  161200UTC 09.8N 136.4E POOR
MOVE  W SLOWLY
PRES  1008HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  171200UTC 10.1N 135.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE  W SLOWLY
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =



JTWC:93W[TCFA]
WTPN21 PGTW 161130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 138.0E TO 12.2N 132.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
137.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 160650Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST ELONGATION
WHILE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171130Z.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-17 08:17 | 显示全部楼层


就好像威马逊下的一个蛋差不多。

点评

报文帖请转贴报文  发表于 2014-7-17 10:14
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-17 10:15 | 显示全部楼层
熱帯低気圧
平成26年07月17日10時20分 発表
<17日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 10度00分(10.0度)
        東経 135度30分(135.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
<18日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 11度20分(11.3度)
        東経 135度35分(135.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-17 21:08 | 显示全部楼层
CI=2.0不命名,只能等分析CI=2.5了
     
** WTPQ20 RJTD 171200 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  171200UTC 10.0N 135.4E POOR
MOVE  ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES  1006HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  181200UTC 11.2N 135.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE  NNE SLOWLY
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 00:01 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PASSES, INCLUDING A 170844Z SSMIS IMAGE, SUPPORT THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TD 10W IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH
AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. BY TAU 36, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING PATTERN, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. AROUND
TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR, CAUSING TD 10W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AND
EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), FAVORABLE VWS AND
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
EASTERN CHINA, DOMINATING THE STEERING PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE SST AND
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, LEADING TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AT TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 175 NM BETWEEN
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN TRACKERS. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLOW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36. DUE TO THE SLOW
AND/OR ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE NORTHWARD TURN, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-18 06:42 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第2报:画个大圈圈

WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STEADY INCREASE IN CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH
DEVELOPING BANDS WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TS 10W IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH
AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE STR IS
FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE NER
WEAKENS. TRACK SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AFTER TAU 36 TRACKING THE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST. VWS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH TAU 48,
WHICH WILL INHIBIT STRONG INTENSIFICATION, BUT TS 10W IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. BEYOND TAU 48 THE
VWS WILL DECREASE, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE TRACK
WILL REMAIN ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE DEEP LAYERED STR.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
THE STR TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TWO
SEPARATE STRS TO DEVELOP. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE TWO STRS
ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN A TURN NORTHWARD (GFS, COAMPS, GFDN)
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN TAIWAN (NAVGEM,
ECMWF). THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLIGHT TURN NORTHWARD, REMAINING MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 120, WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY
FORECAST TO BE 95 KNOTS. DUE TO THE SLOW AND/OR ERRATIC MOVEMENT IN
THE NEAR TERM AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK AT EXTENDED TAUS,
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS AT LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-18 06:49 | 显示全部楼层
JMA:
台風第10号 (マットゥモ)
平成26年07月18日07時05分 発表

<18日06時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 10度50分(10.8度)

東経 135度20分(135.3度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域全域 220km(120NM)

<19日06時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 12度50分(12.8度)

東経 135度20分(135.3度)
進行方向、速さ北 ゆっくり
中心気圧994hPa
中心付近の最大風速23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径160km(85NM)

<20日03時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 15度40分(15.7度)

東経 133度50分(133.8度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧980hPa
中心付近の最大風速30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域全域 280km(150NM)

<21日03時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 18度40分(18.7度)

東経 129度40分(129.7度)
進行方向、速さ北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧970hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域全域 500km(270NM)

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-19 00:03 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS LOW CLOUD LINES STREAMING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN OLDER 180831Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING YET BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE LLCC BEING OBSCURED AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE PGTW AND RJTD
POSITIONAL FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 40 KNOTS
BASED UPON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SEMI-CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TS MATMO IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WITH
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT LOCATED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. BEYOND TAU
48 THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ALIGNED, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
MODIFY THE STR ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE STR. THIS WILL KEEP TS 10W ON A
STEADY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 120, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS EXPECTED BY DAY 5 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TAIWAN. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY SPLIT WITH THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE,
JGSM AND HWRF CONTINUING TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WHILE THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
SPREAD IN THE MODELS.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-19 03:39 | 显示全部楼层
台風第10号 (マットゥモ)
平成26年07月19日04時05分 発表
<19日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 11度05分(11.1度)
東経 132度20分(132.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 994hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
15m/s以上の強風域 全域 220km(120NM)

<20日03時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 13度30分(13.5度)
東経 130度00分(130.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 975hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径 130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 220km(120NM)

<21日03時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 16度35分(16.6度)
東経 127度25分(127.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 965hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 310km(170NM)

<22日03時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 バシー海峡
予報円の中心 北緯 19度10分(19.2度)
東経 123度35分(123.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 940hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速 65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径 390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 540km(290NM)


<23日03時の予報>
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 21度05分(21.1度)
東経 119度30分(119.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(11kt)
予報円の半径 650km(350NM)

<24日03時の予報>
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 22度05分(22.1度)
東経 115度00分(115.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(11kt)
予報円の半径 850km(450NM)
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-19 04:30 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS LOW CLOUD LINES STREAMING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN OLDER 180831Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING YET BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE LLCC BEING OBSCURED AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE PGTW AND RJTD
POSITIONAL FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 40 KNOTS
BASED UPON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SEMI-CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TS MATMO IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WITH
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT LOCATED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. BEYOND TAU
48 THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE ALIGNED, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
MODIFY THE STR ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE STR. THIS WILL KEEP TS 10W ON A
STEADY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 120, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS EXPECTED BY DAY 5 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TAIWAN. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY SPLIT WITH THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE,
JGSM AND HWRF CONTINUING TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WHILE THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
SPREAD IN THE MODELS.//
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