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[官方预报] 1409号台风(威马逊)官方机构报文专帖

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 17:05 | 显示全部楼层
HKO给威马逊的最高评价也是910hPa(115kt),看来也是采信了七洲列岛南屿的实测
发表于 2014-7-18 17:10 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第32报:135KT(实际是14:30升级135KT)

WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM  
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE EYE HAS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN COLD CLOUD TOPS. AS THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF IMPROVEMENTS IN THE STRUCTURE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 135 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THE DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STY 09W IS STEADILY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING OVER EASTERN
CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 09W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR PERSISTS TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STY 09W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS HAINAN AND THE LUICHOW
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, STY
RAMMASUN WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM, WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND MOUNTAINOUS REGION WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
** WTPQ20 BABJ 181200 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC
00HR 20.3N 110.3E 915HPA 55M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS  WINDS 140KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
140KM SOUTHWEST
140KM NORTHWEST
64KTS  WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 22KM/H
P+06HR 21.1N 109.4E 945HPA 48M/S
P+12HR 21.9N  108.4E  955HPA  42M/S
P+18HR 22.2N 107.4E 980HPA 30M/S
P+24HR 22.6N 106.4E 995HPA 18M/S=
P+36HR 23.1N  104.1E  1002HPA  13M/S=
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 23:21 | 显示全部楼层
时    间:        18 日 23 时
命    名:        “威马逊”, RAMMASUN
编    号:        1409 号
中心位置:        北纬20.5度、东经109.9度
强度等级:        超强台风
最大风力:        16级,52 米/秒(约 187 公里/时)
中心气压:        935 hPa
参考位置:        位于广东省徐闻县境内。
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 23:59 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF
HANOI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BEGUN TO DEVOLVE AND BECOME LESS CLEAR AS THE TYPHOON
TRACKS THROUGH THE HAINAN STRAIT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS LEADING TO AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TY 09W IS
STEADILY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING OVER SOUTH EAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
INFLUENCES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT STILL SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE FAVORABLE, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN CHINA, WHICH WILL CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE REGION WITH COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 36. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-19 00:01 | 显示全部楼层
台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月19日00時45分 発表

                               
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<19日00時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ非常に強い
存在地域トンキン湾
中心位置北緯 20度35分(20.6度)

東経 109度50分(109.8度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧940hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速65m/s(130kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 130km(70NM)
15m/s以上の強風域東側 330km(180NM)

西側 220km(120NM)

                               
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<19日12時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域華南
予報円の中心北緯 21度40分(21.7度)

東経 107度50分(107.8度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧945hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域全域 220km(120NM)

                               
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<20日00時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域華南
予報円の中心北緯 22度20分(22.3度)

東経 106度25分(106.4度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧985hPa
最大風速25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径130km(70NM)

                               
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<20日21時の予報>
強さ-

熱帯低気圧
存在地域華南
予報円の中心北緯 23度25分(23.4度)

東経 104度05分(104.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧1002hPa
予報円の半径200km(110NM)

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 181500 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 181500 UTC
00HR 20.5N 109.9E 935HPA 52M/S
30KTS WINDS 250KM NORTHEAST
260KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
250KM NORTHWEST
50KTS  WINDS 120KM NORTHEAST
140KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS  WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 22KM/H
P+06HR 21.3N 108.9E 945HPA 48M/S
P+12HR 21.9N  107.8E  960HPA  40M/S
P+18HR 22.3N 106.8E 983HPA 28M/S
P+24HR 22.7N 105.8E 998HPA 16M/S=
P+36HR 23.7N  102.1E  1002HPA  12M/S=
NNNN

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发表于 2014-7-19 14:25 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC的最后一报:00UTC 给了100KT
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-19 15:05 | 显示全部楼层
台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月19日15時50分 発表
<19日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        華南
中心位置        北緯 22度00分(22.0度)
        東経 106度55分(106.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        東側 330km(180NM)
        西側 220km(120NM)
<20日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ベトナム
予報円の中心        北緯 22度50分(22.8度)
        東経 105度25分(105.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
<20日15時の予報>
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        華南
予報円の中心        北緯 23度00分(23.0度)
        東経 103度30分(103.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)
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