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[官方预报] 1409号台风(威马逊)官方机构报文专帖

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-17 23:44 | 显示全部楼层
JMA第三次在中间报提升强度
      
再次升格非常强台风
      
台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月18日00時40分 発表
<18日00時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 17度55分(17.9度)
        東経 113度55分(113.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        950hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 280km(150NM)
<18日12時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 19度10分(19.2度)
        東経 112度00分(112.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        950hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 200km(110NM)
<19日00時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        海南島
予報円の中心        北緯 20度10分(20.2度)
        東経 110度00分(110.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        955hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径        140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 220km(120NM)
<19日21時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        ベトナム
予報円の中心        北緯 21度35分(21.6度)
        東経 107度10分(107.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        970hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 280km(150NM)
<20日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        華南
予報円の中心        北緯 23度00分(23.0度)
        東経 103度50分(103.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        300km(160NM)
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-17 23:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-7-18 00:27 编辑

** WTPQ20 BABJ 171500 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 171500 UTC
00HR 17.9N 113.9E 945HPA 48M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
350KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS  WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
130KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS  WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 24KM/H
P+06HR 18.6N 112.8E 940HPA 50M/S
P+12HR 19.4N  111.7E  935HPA  52M/S

P+18HR 19.9N 110.8E 945HPA 48M/S
P+24HR 20.5N 109.8E 955HPA 42M/S
P+36HR 21.6N  107.8E  970HPA  35M/S
P+48HR 22.3N 105.7E 985HPA 25M/S=
P+60HR 23.2N  102.0E  1002HPA  12M/S=
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 00:00 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
TY RAMMASUN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS
BUILT IN WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEEPENED AND A DEFINED 16 NM
EYE HAS FORMED. A RECENT 171150Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
INCREASED STRENGTHENING AS BANDING HAS INCREASED IN ALL QUADRANTS
AND THE CONVECTION AROUND THE EYEWALL HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. TY 09W IS
STEADILY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN
GREATLY INCREASED DUE TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM AND AS
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS RECOVERED FROM A CONTINUITY OF
OPERATIONS EXERCISE WHICH USED THE JMA FORECAST THAT IS BASED ON
LOWER 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
HAINAN ISLAND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL
ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND, A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST, WHICH WILL
BECOME MORE RAPID AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN ACROSS THE
CHINESE/VIETNAMESE BORDER WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72
AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-18 06:42 | 显示全部楼层
中央气象台 5时升级超强台风:

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 172100 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 172100 UTC
00HR 18.8N 112.9E 935HPA 52M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
350KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
160KM SOUTHEAST
130KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H
P+06HR 19.4N 111.9E 930HPA 55M/S
P+12HR 20.0N 110.9E 930HPA 55M/S

P+18HR 20.6N 110.0E 950HPA 48M/S
P+24HR 21.6N 108.9E 955HPA 42M/S
P+36HR 22.3N 107.0E 980HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 22.5N 105.1E 998HPA 16M/S=
NNNN
发表于 2014-7-18 06:53 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第30报:巅峰130KT,路径有所东调

DPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTH OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TY 09W
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STEADY IMPROVE-
MENTS IN THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR
LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TY 09W IS STEADILY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR PERSISTS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF HAINAN ISLAND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. WEAKENING WILL PERSIST AFTER
TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF HAINAN ISLAND AND AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE LUICHOW PENINSULA. ONCE TY 09W MAKES
LANDFALL IN THE BORDER REGION OF NORTHERN VIETNAM AND SOUTHERN
CHINA, A RAPID WEAKENING WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-18 09:31 | 显示全部楼层
CMA:升格55m/s
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC
00HR 19.0N 112.3E 930HPA 55M/S
30KTS WINDS 310KM NORTHEAST
350KM SOUTHEAST
350KM SOUTHWEST
310KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 20KM/H
P+06HR 19.6N 111.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+12HR 20.2N 110.6E 935HPA 52M/S
P+18HR 20.9N 109.5E 950HPA 48M/S
P+24HR 21.7N 108.5E 955HPA 42M/S
P+36HR 22.5N 106.6E 980HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 22.8N 104.5E 998HPA 16M/S=

   
JTWC:125KT
wp0914.gif
   
JMA:90KT
1409-00.png
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 1409 RAMMASUN (1409)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  180000UTC 19.1N 112.3E GOOD
MOVE  NW 12KT
PRES  940HPA
MXWD  090KT
GUST  130KT
50KT  70NM
30KT  150NM
FORECAST
24HF  190000UTC 21.4N 108.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 10KT
PRES  955HPA
MXWD  080KT
GUST  115KT
48HF  200000UTC 22.1N 106.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 06KT
PRES  990HPA
MXWD  045KT
GUST  065KT
72HF  210000UTC 23.1N 103.3E 160NM 70%
TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 12:15 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 180300 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC
00HR 19.5N 111.9E 920HPA 60M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 20KM/H
P+06HR 20.1N 110.8E 920HPA 60M/S
P+12HR 20.8N 110.0E 935HPA 52M/S
P+18HR 21.5N 109.1E 950HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 22.0N 108.0E 960HPA 40M/S
P+36HR 22.8N 105.9E 985HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 23.5N 102.1E 998HPA 16M/S=
NNNN
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 12:58 | 显示全部楼层
香港天文台在2014年07月18日12时30分发出之天气报告

提 供 给 船 舶 用 的 热 带 气 旋 警 告

在 协 调 世 界 时 18 日 03 时 , 超 强 台 风 威 马 逊 (1409) 集 结 在 北 纬 19.4 度 , 东 经 112.0 度 之 30 海 浬 范 围 , 预 料 未 来 24 小 时 向 西 北 移 动 , 时 速 约 12 海 浬 。

其 中 心 气 压 为 920 百 帕 斯 卡 , 最 高 风 速 约 为 每 小 时 110 海 浬 。

风 速 超 过 每 小 时 33 海 浬 之 半 径 范 围 :
北 方 为 180 海 浬 , 其 他 方 向 为 120 海 浬 。
风 速 超 过 每 小 时 47 海 浬 之 半 径 范 围 :
北 方 为 120 海 浬 , 其 他 方 向 为 90 海 浬 。
风 速 超 过 每 小 时 63 海 浬 之 半 径 范 围 : 45 海 浬 。
海 浪 超 过 2 米 之 半 径 范 围 :
北 方 为 330 海 浬 , 其 他 方 向 为 300 海 浬 。

在 协 调 世 界 时 19 日 03 时 之 预 测 位 置 及 强 度 :
北 纬 21.8 度
东 经 107.9 度
中 心 最 高 风 速 为 每 小 时 85 海 浬 。

在 协 调 世 界 时 20 日 03 时 之 预 测 位 置 及 强 度 :
北 纬 22.4 度
东 经 104.4 度
中 心 最 高 风 速 为 每 小 时 50 海 浬 。

在 协 调 世 界 时 21 日 03 时 之 预 测 位 置 及 强 度 :
在 内 陆 消 散 。
发表于 2014-7-18 14:27 | 显示全部楼层
应该是鉴于实测,中央气象台最新报文调低了中心气压:

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC
00HR 19.9N 111.3E 915HPA 60M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 160KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H
P+06HR 20.2N 110.3E 910HPA 60M/S
P+12HR 20.9N 109.6E 930HPA 52M/S
P+18HR 21.7N 108.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 22.2N 107.5E 975HPA 33M/S
P+36HR 23.0N 105.2E 985HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 23.7N 101.1E 998HPA 16M/S=
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-18 15:07 | 显示全部楼层
时    间:         18 日 15 时
命    名:         “威马逊”, RAMMASUN
编    号:         1409 号
中心位置:         北纬19.9度、东经111.0度
强度等级:         超强台风
最大风力:         17级,60 米/秒(约 216 公里/时)
中心气压:         910 hPa
参考位置:         位于海南文昌东北部近海海面上。
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