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[官方预报] 1409号台风(威马逊)官方机构报文专帖

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发表于 2014-7-15 01:49 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第17报

WDPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TY 09W HAS SLOWED AND CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND HAS SINCE
DEVELOPED AN IRREGULAR 15NM EYE. A 141044Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS INCREASED STRENGTHENING AS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE
HAS BECOME MORE DEVELOPED AND AS CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS INCREASED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES
WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS AT LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
LEVELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IRREGULAR EYE FEATURE
SEEN IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OBSERVED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KNOTS.
TY 09W REMAINS ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK DESPITE A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD DEFLECTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO A SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT IS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND MAKES LANDFALL
JUST BEFORE TAU 24. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND, A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48 UNTIL THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. A SLIGHT REORIENTATION IN THE STR IS EXPECTED AFTER
TAU 24 WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY TURN TY 09W TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AFTER
TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROCEED FURTHER INTO THE MORE OPEN
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE THE INCREASED DISTANCE TO LAND,
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM WATERS WILL CAUSE TY 09W TO
START RE-INTENSIFYING.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA TOWARDS NORTHERN HAINAN
ISLAND, MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120 ACROSS THE LUICHOW
PENINSULA AND INTO MAINLAND CHINA. WARM SST, DECREASED VWS, AND
INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 95 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND WEAKENING
THEREAFTER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED BUT IS
OTHERWISE TIGHTLY GROUPED. DUE TO THE OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE
EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING ANTICIPATED WITH THE LAND INTERACTION IN THE
MID FORECAST.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-15 09:01 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 150000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC
00HR 12.8N 125.7E 965HPA 38M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
50KTS  WINDS 90KM NORTHEAST
130KM SOUTHEAST
130KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
64KTS  WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H
P+12HR 13.3N  123.6E  965HPA  38M/S
P+24HR 14.3N 121.4E 975HPA 33M/S
P+36HR 15.7N  119.2E  985HPA  28M/S
P+48HR 17.0N 117.1E 980HPA 30M/S
P+60HR 18.1N  114.8E  970HPA  35M/S
P+72HR 19.3N 112.5E 960HPA 40M/S
P+96HR 21.0N 108.5E 985HPA 25M/S
P+120HR 22.5N 105.0E 1000HPA 16M/S=
NNNN



台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月15日09時50分 発表

                               
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<15日09時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 12度40分(12.7度)

東経 125度35分(125.6度)
進行方向、速さ西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧970hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(100kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域全域 260km(140NM)

                               
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<15日21時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピン
予報円の中心北緯 13度10分(13.2度)

東経 123度40分(123.7度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧970hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(100kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域全域 190km(100NM)

                               
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<16日09時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピン
予報円の中心北緯 14度20分(14.3度)

東経 121度55分(121.9度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧975hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域全域 220km(120NM)

                               
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<17日09時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 17度05分(17.1度)

東経 117度10分(117.2度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧975hPa
中心付近の最大風速30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域全域 330km(180NM)

                               
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<18日09時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 18度50分(18.8度)

東経 112度50分(112.8度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧975hPa
中心付近の最大風速30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域全域 460km(250NM)


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发表于 2014-7-15 09:44 | 显示全部楼层
WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 019   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 125.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 125.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 13.3N 123.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 14.1N 121.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 15.2N 119.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 16.5N 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 18.5N 112.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.4N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 21.6N 105.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 125.1E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-15 12:54 | 显示全部楼层
JMA不常见地在中间报升第一次巅峰
     
台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月15日12時45分 発表
<15日12時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 12度50分(12.8度)
        東経 125度20分(125.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 280km(150NM)
<16日00時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピン
予報円の中心        北緯 13度20分(13.3度)
        東経 123度20分(123.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 190km(100NM)
<16日12時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        ルソン島
予報円の中心        北緯 14度30分(14.5度)
        東経 121度35分(121.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        970hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(100kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 220km(120NM)
<17日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 17度05分(17.1度)
        東経 117度10分(117.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速        45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 330km(180NM)
 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-15 14:58 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 150600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC
00HR 13.0N 124.7E 950HPA 45M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
50KTS  WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
130KM SOUTHEAST
130KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS  WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H
P+12HR 13.8N  122.8E  965HPA  38M/S
P+24HR 14.9N 120.4E 975HPA 33M/S
P+36HR 16.2N  118.3E  985HPA  25M/S
P+48HR 17.5N 115.8E 980HPA 30M/S
P+60HR 18.6N  113.7E  970HPA  35M/S
P+72HR 19.6N 111.7E 955HPA 42M/S
P+96HR 21.4N 107.8E 975HPA 33M/S
P+120HR 22.9N 104.6E 1000HPA 16M/S=
NNNN



台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月15日15時50分 発表

                               
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<15日15時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 12度55分(12.9度)

東経 124度40分(124.7度)
進行方向、速さ西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧965hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速55m/s(105kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域全域 280km(150NM)

                               
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<16日03時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域フィリピン
予報円の中心北緯 13度35分(13.6度)

東経 122度50分(122.8度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧965hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域全域 190km(100NM)

                               
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<16日15時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域ルソン島
予報円の中心北緯 14度55分(14.9度)

東経 121度00分(121.0度)
進行方向、速さ北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧970hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(100kt)
予報円の半径140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域全域 220km(120NM)

                               
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<17日15時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 17度30分(17.5度)

東経 116度05分(116.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧975hPa
中心付近の最大風速30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域全域 330km(180NM)

                               
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<18日15時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 19度05分(19.1度)

東経 111度55分(111.9度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧975hPa
中心付近の最大風速30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域全域 460km(250NM)


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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-15 15:58 | 显示全部楼层
WTPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 020   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 124.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 124.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 13.8N 122.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 14.8N 120.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 15.9N 118.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 17.2N 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 19.2N 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 20.8N 108.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 21.7N 105.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 124.1E.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-15 17:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-7-15 17:52 编辑

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 150900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 150900 UTC
00HR 13.2N 124.2E 945HPA 48M/S
30KTS WINDS 220KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
130KM SOUTHEAST
130KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H
P+12HR 14.1N 121.9E 970HPA 35M/S
P+24HR 15.2N 119.6E 980HPA 30M/S
P+36HR 16.5N 117.4E 984HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 17.8N 115.1E 975HPA 33M/S
P+60HR 18.9N 113.0E 960HPA 40M/S
P+72HR 19.9N 111.0E 950HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 21.7N 106.9E 980HPA 30M/S
P+120HR 22.4N 102.3E 1000HPA 16M/S=
NNNN




台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月15日18時40分 発表
<15日18時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 ルソン島
中心位置 北緯 13度05分(13.1度)
東経 124度05分(124.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 945hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(120kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 全域 280km(150NM)

<16日06時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 ルソン島
予報円の中心 北緯 14度00分(14.0度)
東経 122度20分(122.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 955hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径 90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 190km(100NM)

<16日18時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 ルソン島
予報円の中心 北緯 15度25分(15.4度)
東経 120度05分(120.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 965hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 220km(120NM)

<17日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 17度30分(17.5度)
東経 116度05分(116.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 975hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速 45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径 260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 330km(180NM)

<18日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 19度05分(19.1度)
東経 111度55分(111.9度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 975hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速 45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径 390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 460km(250NM)
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-15 22:42 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-STRUCTURED SYSTEM AS TY 09W
MOVES OVER LAND. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
SATELLITE EYE FIX ON A CLEAR, 20 NM DIAMETER EYE EVIDENT ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AND 150912Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONSISTENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DUE TO THE CYCLONE BEING ON
LAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TY 09W REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND WESTWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR EVERY POSITION
THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A WELL-DEFINED
SYSTEM AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN OBJECTIVE AID INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 06 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE
TYPHOON WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD BY TAU 12 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING OVER EASTERN CHINA. TYPHOON RAMMASUN WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON AND INTO MANILA OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AFTER
REEMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) TO A CONTINUATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SCS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
FURTHER RAPID RE-INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS PRIOR MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN HAINAN ISLAND AROUND TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF TONKIN. LAND INTERACTION WILL
PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS WEAKENING; HOWEVER, TY 09W WILL MAINTAIN TYPHOON
STRENGTH AS IT MAKES THE FINAL LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR
HANOI. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED BUT IS OTHERWISE TIGHTLY GROUPED, LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE EXTENT OF THE
WEAKENING ANTICIPATED WITH THE LAND INTERACTION, THEREFORE, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-16 06:13 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第22报

WDPN32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 67 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS, FOR THE  MOST PART,
MAINTAINED STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY AS IT DRAGGED ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 12-NM EYE
THAT IS VISIBLE BOTH IN THE EIR AND ON A 151741Z 37H GPM MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS LUZON
INTO METRO MANILA AND SUBIC BAY, IT WILL WEAKEN BUT WILL STILL EMERGE
AS A STRONG 95-KNOT TYPHOON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). CONTINUED
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE PERENNIALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SCS WILL PROMOTE A SECONDARY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION - PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT CROSSES
NORTHERN HAINAN, CHINA.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TYPHOON RAMMASUN WILL CROSS THE GULF OF
TONKIN, MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR HANOI, THEN RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION; HOWEVER, TY 09W WILL MAINTAIN
TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT MAKES THE FINAL LANDFALL. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-16 06:32 | 显示全部楼层
台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月16日06時45分 発表

<16日06時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ強い
存在地域ルソン島
中心位置北緯 14度05分(14.1度)

東経 121度05分(121.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧955hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(115kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域全域 280km(150NM)

<17日06時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 16度55分(16.9度)

東経 116度00分(116.0度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧960hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域全域 220km(120NM)

<18日03時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 18度55分(18.9度)

東経 112度50分(112.8度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧965hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域全域 350km(190NM)

<19日03時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域トンキン湾
予報円の中心北緯 20度10分(20.2度)

東経 109度05分(109.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧970hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(100kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 370km(200NM)

<20日03時の予報>
存在地域ベトナム
予報円の中心北緯 21度20分(21.3度)

東経 107度10分(107.2度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 ゆっくり
予報円の半径440km(240NM)

<21日03時の予報>
存在地域ベトナム
予報円の中心北緯 21度50分(21.8度)

東経 106度05分(106.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 ゆっくり
予報円の半径560km(300NM)

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