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[官方预报] 1409号台风(威马逊)官方机构报文专帖

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-12 09:20 | 显示全部楼层
熱帯低気圧
平成26年07月12日10時00分 発表

                               
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<12日09時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域マリアナ諸島
中心位置北緯 13度40分(13.7度)
東経 145度10分(145.2度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)

                               
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<12日21時の予報>
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心北緯 14度00分(14.0度)
東経 142度25分(142.4度)
進行方向、速さ西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径150km(80NM)

                               
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<13日09時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 14度05分(14.1度)
東経 139度40分(139.7度)
進行方向、速さ西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)

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发表于 2014-7-12 15:18 | 显示全部楼层
台風第9号 (ラマスーン)
平成26年07月12日16時20分 発表

<12日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 13度25分(13.4度)
東経 142度40分(142.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 130km(70NM)

<13日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 13度30分(13.5度)
東経 139度50分(139.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)

<13日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 13度25分(13.4度)
東経 137度20分(137.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        992hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        140km(75NM)

<14日15時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 13度30分(13.5度)
東経 132度35分(132.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 330km(180NM)

<15日15時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 14度05分(14.1度)
東経 127度40分(127.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        955hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径        390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 480km(260NM)
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发表于 2014-7-12 15:19 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE, BUT A NEW CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
MASS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM HAS
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS UNDERGONE INCREASED
ORGANIZATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 30 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD HOLDING STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TD 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED BETWEEN IWO TO AND GUAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BASED ON THE SHIFT IN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL STRUGGLE TO ALIGN FOR THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING TO A SLOW DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH
TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE
FORECASTED TRACK, BUT THE OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR IN
THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, CAUSING A SHIFT IN THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PART OF LUZON. ADDITIONALLY,
THE VERY FAVORABLE SST VALUES PRIOR TO THE APPROACH WILL LEAD TO
A MAXIMUM INTENSITY AROUND TAU 108, POSSIBLY NEAR 100 KNOTS BUT IS
NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST AS THE TAU 120 INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS
ENCOMPASSES A SLIGHT IMPACT TO THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE INFLOW
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS IMPACTED BY CROSSING OVER LUZON.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND TRACK SPEED UNCERTAINTY, THE OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-12 15:21 | 显示全部楼层
命名,直接SW
   
** WTPQ21 RJTD 120600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 1409 RAMMASUN (1409) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  120600UTC 13.4N 142.7E POOR
MOVE  W 13KT
PRES  1004HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  70NM
FORECAST
24HF  130600UTC 13.4N 137.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE  W 12KT
PRES  992HPA
MXWD  050KT
GUST  070KT
48HF  140600UTC 13.5N 132.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE  W 12KT
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  065KT
GUST  095KT
72HF  150600UTC 14.1N 127.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE  W 12KT
PRES  955HPA
MXWD  080KT
GUST  115KT =

 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-12 16:12 | 显示全部楼层
** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC
00HR 13.4N 142.8E 1002HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 25KM/H
P+12HR 13.4N  140.3E  998HPA  20M/S
P+24HR 13.2N 137.5E 988HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 13.2N  134.5E  980HPA  30M/S
P+48HR 13.6N 132.1E 970HPA 35M/S
P+60HR 14.2N  129.5E  965HPA  38M/S
P+72HR 14.8N 127.2E 955HPA 42M/S
P+96HR 15.4N 123.2E 945HPA 48M/S
P+120HR 17.3N 118.2E 970HPA 35M/S=

发表于 2014-7-12 21:26 | 显示全部楼层
7/12 12UTC
   
JMA
   
14095-00.png
   
1409-00.png
TS 1409 (RAMMASUN)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 12 July 2014
<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale-
Intensity-
Center positionN13°30'(13.5°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movementW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or moreALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity-
Center position of probability circleN13°05'(13.1°)
E135°55'(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movementW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle140km(75NM)
<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
IntensityStrong
Center position of probability circleN13°30'(13.5°)
E131°30'(131.5°)
Direction and speed of movementW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle260km(140NM)
Storm warning areaALL330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
IntensityVery Strong
Center position of probability circleN14°20'(14.3°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movementW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle390km(210NM)
Storm warning areaALL480km(260NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circleN16°35'(16.6°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movementWNW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle520km(280NM)
<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circleN18°30'(18.5°)
E116°20'(116.3°)
Direction and speed of movementWNW 30km/h(16kt)
Radius of probability circle700km(375NM)


CMA:999hPa——奇葩的强度评定
   
SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20140712200000000.jpg
   
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS RAMMASUN 1409 (1409) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC
00HR 13.4N 141.4E 999HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 25KM/H
P+12HR 13.3N 138.7E 988HPA 25M/S
P+24HR 13.2N 136.1E 980HPA 30M/S
P+36HR 13.2N 133.6E 972HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 13.3N 131.1E 964HPA 40M/S
P+60HR 13.5N 128.7E 954HPA 45M/S
P+72HR 13.7N 126.4E 948HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 15.0N 122.4E 948HPA 48M/S
P+120HR 16.9N 119.0E 972HPA 35M/S=

发表于 2014-7-12 23:10 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第8报:预测信心仍然很低

WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT TD 09W HAS NOT IMPROVED IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS THE BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE LEADING WESTERN EDGE
CONTINUES TO FLARE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A 120356 GMI 36GHZ
MICROWAVE CONCURS WITH THE MSI LOOP AS THE CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AROUND A SLOPPY LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE
POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP WHILE POSITION
FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD REMAIN
AT 30 KNOTS. TD 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING
TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. NEAR TAU 72, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, POSSIBLY REACHING
100 KNOTS BUT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST AS IT FALLS BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-12 23:13 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第9报

WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE BROKEN FORMATIVE
BANDING ALONG THE LEADING WESTERN EDGE HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE. A 121205Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS IMPROVED BANDING CAN BE OBSERVED
DESPITE AN OVERALL SMALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN UNCHANGED, MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKLY
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO THE SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE EIR LOOP WHILE POSITION
FIXES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (35 KNOTS)
BASED ON THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SEEN IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS AS WELL. TS 09W
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING
TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. NEAR TAU 72, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, REACHING 95 KNOTS
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-13 04:50 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第10报

WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS BROKEN AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LLCC IS BASED ON A
POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND A RECENT 121711Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAIN-
TAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, BUT KNES
AND RJTD WERE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTION
TEMPORARILY WEAKENED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN UNCHANGED, MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKLY
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING
TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. NEAR TAU 72, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND OUTFLOW IMPROVE, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, REACHING 95 KNOTS
BEFORE LANDFALL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING OF FORECAST POSITIONS AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WITH
LUZON. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BETWEEN TAU
96 AND TAU 108 THERE WILL BE FURTHER WEAKENING TO AS LOW AS 65 KNOTS
BUT BY TAU 120 THE ENVIRONMENT, IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE,
INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 75
KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-13 09:19 | 显示全部楼层
熱帶風暴 威馬遜

在香港時間 2014 年 07 月 13 日 02 時的最新資料

位置:  北緯 13.6 度,東經 139.6 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 65 公里



預 測 的 位 置 和 強 度

香 港 時 間        位 置        熱 帶 氣 旋 類 別        中 心 附 近 最 高 持 續 風 速
2014 年 07 月 14 日 02 時        北 緯 13.4 度        東 經 135.0 度        強烈熱帶風暴         每小時 90 公里
2014 年 07 月 15 日 02 時        北 緯 13.7 度        東 經 130.2 度        颱風         每小時 130 公里
2014 年 07 月 16 日 02 時        北 緯 13.8 度        東 經 125.5 度        強颱風         每小時 155 公里
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