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[官方预报] 1408号台风浣熊(08W)官方机构预报专帖

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发表于 2014-7-7 12:32 | 显示全部楼层
台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月07日12時50分 発表

                               
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<07日12時の実況>
大きさ大型
強さ非常に強い
存在地域沖縄の南
中心位置北緯 21度05分(21.1度)
東経 127度55分(127.9度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧930hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(135kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 200km(110NM)
15m/s以上の強風域南東側 700km(375NM)
北西側 440km(240NM)

                               
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<08日12時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域宮古島の東北東約60km
予報円の中心北緯 25度05分(25.1度)
東経 125度50分(125.8度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧910hPa
中心付近の最大風速55m/s(105kt)
最大瞬間風速75m/s(150kt)
予報円の半径130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域全域 370km(200NM)

                               
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<09日09時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域東シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 29度05分(29.1度)
東経 126度25分(126.4度)
進行方向、速さ北 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧930hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(135kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 500km(270NM)

                               
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<10日09時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域九州の西
予報円の中心北緯 32度05分(32.1度)
東経 129度30分(129.5度)
進行方向、速さ北東 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧960hPa
中心付近の最大風速35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速50m/s(100kt)
予報円の半径410km(220NM)
暴風警戒域全域 560km(300NM)

                               
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<11日09時の予報>
存在地域近畿地方
予報円の中心北緯 34度35分(34.6度)
東経 134度20分(134.3度)
進行方向、速さ東北東 20km/h(12kt)
予報円の半径650km(350NM)

                               
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<12日09時の予報>
存在地域東北地方
予報円の中心北緯 38度30分(38.5度)
東経 140度00分(140.0度)
進行方向、速さ北東 30km/h(15kt)
予報円の半径850km(450NM)

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发表于 2014-7-7 18:26 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第18报

预测分析报文:

wp0814.gif



WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 070600Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS STY NEOGURI IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
ASSESSMENT FROM DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STY
08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY TAU 24, STY NEOGURI
WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST, AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
发表于 2014-7-7 23:53 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第19报 当前强度下调为130KT,巅峰下调为140KT

预测分析报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STY 08W HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED
DESPITE MAINTAINING A ROUND 40-NM EYE. A 070917Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE CLEARLY REVEALS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OCCURRING
WITH AN ERODING INNER EYEWALL AND CONCENTRIC OUTER EYEWALL. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND ASSESSMENT FROM DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. STY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 08W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR BEGINS TO SEE
INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 24, STY
NEOGURI WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN INITIALLY DUE TO THE ERC AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM.
   C. BY TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE COLD
BAROCLINIC ZONE. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL LEAD TO ITS
RAPID DETERIORATION. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, STY NEOGURI WILL
COMPLETE ITS TRANSFORMATION INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-8 11:15 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第20-21报,不再有“第二峰值”,目前强度110KT

21报 预报分析报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IN COMBINATION
WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA INDICATE THE EYEWALL HAS
MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DIURNAL FLARING WITHIN THE EYEWALL. A
RECENT 072313Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
BE WEAKEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN KEPT AT 110 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, WHICH HAVE INCREASED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RECENT FLARE OF CONVECTION OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE EYE
DIAMETER HAS PERSISTED AT 30 NM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A DIGGING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY 08W, HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING
THE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS, HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. RECENTLY, AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SOUTHWEST, OVER EASTERN CHINA, INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TY 08W HAS HINDERED
DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK APPEARS TO BE ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON RECENT ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. TY 08W
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED NEAR IWO TO. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
THE DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY 08W WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND CAUSE THE STR TO SHIFT AFTER TAU 24, CAUSING TY 08W TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING
THE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BUT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE
TROUGH WILL STIFLE THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A STRONGER
WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 48. LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN JAPAN IS EXPECTED
AROUND 00Z ON THE 10TH. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24, BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE ONCE THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES 30N. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF TY 08W AFTER
TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 48 A COMBINATION OF THESE ELEMENTS, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN JAPANESE TERRAIN, WILL LEAD TO A THE
BEGINNING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL CONTINUE THE ETT PROCESS,
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER NORTHERN JAPAN AND THE STR. TY NEOGURI IS
EXPECTED TO BY FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-8 14:44 | 显示全部楼层
台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月08日14時45分 発表

                               
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<08日14時の実況>
大きさ大型
強さ非常に強い
存在地域久米島の西約100km
中心位置北緯 26度10分(26.2度)
東経 125度50分(125.8度)
進行方向、速さ北 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧935hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(135kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域東側 280km(150NM)
西側 220km(120NM)
15m/s以上の強風域東側 700km(375NM)
西側 440km(240NM)

                               
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<08日15時の推定>
大きさ大型
強さ非常に強い
存在地域久米島の西約110km
中心位置北緯 26度25分(26.4度)
東経 125度40分(125.7度)
進行方向、速さ北 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧935hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(135kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域東側 280km(150NM)
西側 220km(120NM)
15m/s以上の強風域東側 700km(375NM)
西側 440km(240NM)

                               
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<09日00時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域東シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 28度05分(28.1度)
東経 125度50分(125.8度)
進行方向、速さ北 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧945hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域東側 370km(200NM)
西側 310km(170NM)

                               
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<09日12時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域東シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 29度50分(29.8度)
東経 126度20分(126.3度)
進行方向、速さ北 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧950hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径160km(85NM)
暴風警戒域東側 410km(220NM)
西側 350km(190NM)

                               
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<10日09時の予報>
強さ強い
存在地域九州の西
予報円の中心北緯 31度25分(31.4度)
東経 129度55分(129.9度)
進行方向、速さ東北東 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧960hPa
中心付近の最大風速40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域南東側 500km(270NM)
北西側 440km(240NM)

                               
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<11日09時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域近畿地方
予報円の中心北緯 33度25分(33.4度)
東経 136度05分(136.1度)
進行方向、速さ東北東 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧980hPa
中心付近の最大風速30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径460km(250NM)
暴風警戒域全域 560km(300NM)


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发表于 2014-7-8 21:28 | 显示全部楼层
台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月08日21時50分 発表
<08日21時の実況>
大きさ 大型
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 久米島の北北西約190km
中心位置 北緯 27度40分(27.7度)
東経 125度40分(125.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 945hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(120kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 南東側 280km(150NM)
北西側 200km(110NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 南東側 700km(375NM)
北西側 440km(240NM)

<09日21時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 九州の西
予報円の中心 北緯 31度05分(31.1度)
東経 127度00分(127.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 955hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 160km(85NM)
暴風警戒域 南東側 370km(200NM)
北西側 310km(170NM)

<10日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 足摺岬の南南西約130km
予報円の中心 北緯 31度40分(31.7度)
東経 132度25分(132.4度)
進行方向、速さ 東北東 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 975hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速 45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径 300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域 南東側 480km(260NM)
北西側 430km(230NM)

<11日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 東海道沖
予報円の中心 北緯 34度00分(34.0度)
東経 138度10分(138.2度)
進行方向、速さ 東北東 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧 985hPa
中心付近の最大風速 25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速 35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径 460km(250NM)

<12日21時の予報>
存在地域 日本の東
予報円の中心 北緯 42度00分(42.0度)
東経 147度00分(147.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北東 50km/h(26kt)
予報円の半径 650km(350NM)

<13日21時の予報>
存在地域 千島の東
予報円の中心 北緯 51度00分(51.0度)
東経 159度00分(159.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北東 55km/h(30kt)
予報円の半径 850km(450NM)
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发表于 2014-7-9 00:34 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第22-23报:强度逐步下调

第23报,预测分析报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
REVEALS A PERSISTENT 25 NM EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WHILE THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH
AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED TO SLIGHTLY WARM. A 080906Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED EYEWALL WITH A LARGE BANDING
FEATURE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS A NOTICEABLE DRY
SLOT HAS STARTED TO FORM ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND A RADAR
POSITION FIX FROM RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS, BASED UPON THE WANING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, REVEALS A SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED ENVIRONMENT AS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO DECREASE WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS STRONG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS). TY 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO START A NORTHEAST TURN IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, BEGINS TO MODIFY THE STR. AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DIGGING TROUGH, TY 08W WILL TURN SHARPLY EAST TOWARDS KYUSHU,
MAKING LANDFALL SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z ON THE 10TH. OVER THE NEXT DAY,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES FURTHER RESTRICTED. AN
INCREASED WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND VWS GREATLY INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES FURTHER EXPOSED TO THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN JAPAN. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ACROSS KYUSHU AT MINIMAL TYPHOON, POSSIBLY STRONG TROPICAL
STORM, STRENGTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
IN TRACK SPEED AND CONTINUE TO DEVOLVE AS THE ROUGH TERRAIN ACROSS
JAPAN ALONG WITH THE WESTERLIES, BEGIN TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT).
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL CONTINUE THE ETT PROCESS,
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER NORTHERN JAPAN AND THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96 WITH POSSIBLE
COMPLETION BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED SOUTH AT TAU 48 AND 72 AS
THE BULK OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS MOVED SOUTH AS WELL.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-10 09:37 | 显示全部楼层
台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月10日09時50分 発表

                               
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<10日09時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
存在地域宮崎市付近
中心位置北緯 32度05分(32.1度)
東経 131度30分(131.5度)
進行方向、速さ東 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧985hPa
最大風速25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(70kt)
15m/s以上の強風域南東側 600km(325NM)
北西側 390km(210NM)

                               
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<10日10時の推定>
大きさ-
強さ-
存在地域宮崎市の東北東約50km
中心位置北緯 32度05分(32.1度)
東経 131度55分(131.9度)
進行方向、速さ東 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧985hPa
最大風速25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(70kt)
15m/s以上の強風域南東側 600km(325NM)
北西側 390km(210NM)

                               
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<10日15時の予報>
強さ-
予報円の中心北緯 32度35分(32.6度)
東経 133度40分(133.7度)
進行方向、速さ東北東 35km/h(19kt)
中心気圧985hPa
最大風速25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径60km(30NM)

                               
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<10日21時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域新宮市の東約30km
予報円の中心北緯 33度40分(33.7度)
東経 136度20分(136.3度)
進行方向、速さ東北東 40km/h(22kt)
中心気圧990hPa
最大風速23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)

                               
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<11日03時の予報>
強さ-
予報円の中心北緯 35度00分(35.0度)
東経 138度50分(138.8度)
進行方向、速さ北東 45km/h(24kt)
中心気圧990hPa
最大風速23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径130km(70NM)

                               
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<11日09時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域いわき市の南東約50km
予報円の中心北緯 36度50分(36.8度)
東経 141度20分(141.3度)
進行方向、速さ北東 50km/h(26kt)
中心気圧992hPa
最大風速23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径160km(85NM)


<12日09時の予報>
強さ-
温帯低気圧
存在地域北海道の東
予報円の中心北緯 44度35分(44.6度)
東経 146度50分(146.8度)
進行方向、速さ北北東 40km/h(22kt)
中心気圧994hPa
最大風速23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径330km(180NM)
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发表于 2014-7-11 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
消灭

温帯低気圧
平成26年07月11日09時40分 発表
<11日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
温帯低気圧
存在地域 関東の東
中心位置 北緯 37度00分(37.0度)
東経 142度00分(142.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北東 45km/h(25kt)
中心気圧 990hPa


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发表于 2014-7-12 17:11 | 显示全部楼层
截图.jpg
   
中美日三方路径和强度对照(速报值)
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