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[官方预报] 1408号台风浣熊(08W)官方机构预报专帖

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发表于 2014-7-5 23:53 | 显示全部楼层
美军第11报,亮点依旧

wp0814 (1).gif

Prognostic Reasoning :
WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
   
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AS IT BECAME HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 22-
NM EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES SHOWING ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIGHT (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
   
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU
48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE POLEWARD. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT
150 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE AND
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN AS THE STR BEGINS TO
SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE INCREASED
MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND THE START OF
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. HOWEVER, TY 08W
WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LAND-FALL INTO SOUTHERN
JAPAN. AFTER TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIASED TOWARDS
ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
发表于 2014-7-6 07:16 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第12报 巅峰下调为145KT

预测分析报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STEADY IMPROVEMENT WITHIN THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE. COLDER CLOUD-
TOP TEMPERATURES AND A MORE SYMMETRIC EYE HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. POSITIONING IS BASED ON THIS WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE,
WITH INTENSITY INCREASING BASED ON THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH
THE OBSERVED IMPROVEMENTS, INDICATING 115 KNOTS, BUT THE CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN OBSERVED CONVEC-
TION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE VIGOROUS
LEVELS OF OUTFLOW AS TY 08W TRACKS OVER VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS AT LOW VALUES 05 TO 10 KNOTS AS TY 08W TRACKS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36, BUT WILL BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD BEYOND THIS POINT AS
THE STR BEGINS TO RE-ALIGN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SERIES OF TRANS-
ITORY MID-LATITUDE LOWS, ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE KOREAN PENIN-
SULA AND ANOTHER BUILDING LOW OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF JAPAN.
BY TAU 48, TY 08W WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TAU 72. TY 08W WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE SSTS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
BEYOND TAU 48, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
STRUCTURE OF TY 08W.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 08W WILL GRADUALLY RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN AS THE STR BEGINS TO SEE
INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LATITUDE LOWS.
THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND
THE START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION.
HOWEVER, TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. AROUND TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE
JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-6 07:19 | 显示全部楼层
JMA
台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月06日06時45分 発表

<06日06時の実況>
大きさ大型
強さ非常に強い
存在地域沖ノ鳥島近海
中心位置北緯 17度50分(17.8度)

東経 133度40分(133.7度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧945hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(120kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 170km(90NM)
15m/s以上の強風域南側 650km(350NM)

北側 390km(210NM)
<07日06時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域沖縄の南
予報円の中心北緯 20度35分(20.6度)

東経 129度10分(129.2度)
進行方向、速さ北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧930hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域全域 330km(180NM)
<08日03時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域沖縄の南
予報円の中心北緯 23度40分(23.7度)

東経 127度05分(127.1度)
進行方向、速さ北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧920hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(135kt)
予報円の半径260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域全域 500km(270NM)
<09日03時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域東シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 28度35分(28.6度)

東経 127度25分(127.4度)
進行方向、速さ北 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧935hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径460km(250NM)
暴風警戒域全域 650km(350NM)
<10日03時の予報>
存在地域九州
予報円の中心北緯 32度40分(32.7度)

東経 129度25分(129.4度)
進行方向、速さ北北東 20km/h(11kt)
予報円の半径520km(280NM)
<11日03時の予報>
存在地域山陰沖
予報円の中心北緯 35度40分(35.7度)

東経 133度50分(133.8度)
進行方向、速さ北東 20km/h(12kt)
予報円の半径700km(375NM)

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发表于 2014-7-6 08:51 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-7-6 08:58 编辑

JMA终于在报文中上望猛烈

台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月06日09時50分 発表

                               
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<06日09時の実況>
大きさ大型
強さ非常に強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 18度00分(18.0度)
東経 133度00分(133.0度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧940hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速65m/s(130kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 190km(100NM)
15m/s以上の強風域南側 650km(350NM)
北側 440km(240NM)

                               
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<06日21時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 19度10分(19.2度)
東経 130度40分(130.7度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧930hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(135kt)
予報円の半径90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域全域 280km(150NM)

                               
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<07日09時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域沖縄の南
予報円の中心北緯 20度55分(20.9度)
東経 128度35分(128.6度)
進行方向、速さ北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧920hPa
中心付近の最大風速50m/s(100kt)
最大瞬間風速70m/s(140kt)
予報円の半径140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域全域 350km(190NM)

                               
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<08日09時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域那覇市の南南西約180km
予報円の中心北緯 24度50分(24.8度)
東経 126度55分(126.9度)
進行方向、速さ北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧910hPa
中心付近の最大風速55m/s(105kt)
最大瞬間風速75m/s(150kt)
予報円の半径200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域全域 440km(240NM)

                               
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<09日09時の予報>
強さ非常に強い
存在地域東シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 29度40分(29.7度)
東経 127度30分(127.5度)
進行方向、速さ北 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧940hPa
中心付近の最大風速45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径460km(250NM)
暴風警戒域全域 650km(350NM)

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发表于 2014-7-6 11:15 | 显示全部楼层
CMA,7/06 00UTC预报:巅峰强度58m/s,预计出现于36小时后(即7日夜间)
   
SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20140706080000000.jpg
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY NEOGURI 1408 (1408) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC
00HR 17.8N 133.2E 945HPA 48M/S
30KTS WINDS 400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 130KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
140KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 25KM/H
P+12HR 19.4N 130.3E 940HPA 50M/S
P+24HR 21.2N 127.9E 935HPA 52M/S
P+36HR 23.4N 126.8E 925HPA 58M/S
P+48HR 26.0N 126.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 28.9N 126.6E 945HPA 48M/S
P+72HR 31.7N 127.6E 972HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 34.7N 133.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+120HR 36.2N 140.9E 998HPA 16M/S=
发表于 2014-7-6 17:54 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 13-14报  巅峰调低为140KT

14报 预测分析报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION AS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A 34-NM EYE HAS DEEPENED
AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 060615Z
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A SMALL INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE AND
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING A HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW MECHANISM. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
REMAINS FAVORABLE  AS TY 08W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SERIES OF TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE LOWS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND
BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS.  
BEYOND TAU 48, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND INCREASING
VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN, AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES
TO RECEDE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST
VALUES, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION.
HOWEVER, TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. AROUND TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND WILL UNDERGO ETT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS HAVE SLIGHTLY SHIFTED WESTWARD AT
THE RECURVE POINT, YET REMAINS IN TIGHT GROUPING. THEREFORE, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-6 21:20 | 显示全部楼层
** WTPQ20 BABJ 061200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY NEOGURI 1408 (1408) INITIAL TIME 061200 UTC
00HR 19.0N 130.3E 940HPA 50M/S
30KTS WINDS 400KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
350KM NORTHWEST
50KTS  WINDS 130KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
140KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS  WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
70KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 25KM/H
P+12HR 20.7N  128.3E  930HPA  55M/S
P+24HR 23.0N 126.7E 925HPA 58M/S
P+36HR 25.9N  126.1E  930HPA  55M/S
P+48HR 28.9N 126.2E 940HPA 50M/S
P+60HR 31.5N  127.3E  960HPA  42M/S
P+72HR 33.0N 129.5E 975HPA 33M/S
P+96HR 35.2N 137.0E 994HPA 20M/S
P+120HR 40.7N 143.2E 1000HPA 15M/S=

发表于 2014-7-7 01:19 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第15报

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AS IT BECAME HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 25-
NM EYE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 061042Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A SMALL INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES SHOWING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS
FAVORABLE AS TY 08W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SERIES OF TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE LOWS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND
BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS.
BEYOND TAU 48, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND INCREASING
VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN, AS THE STEERING STR CONTINUES
TO RECEDE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST
VALUES, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION.
HOWEVER, TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. BY TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN


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发表于 2014-7-7 06:42 | 显示全部楼层
JWTC 第16报 巅峰重上145KT
  
预测分析报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)//
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GREATLY EXPANDED IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN FLANK, WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED 25-NM EYE. THE EIR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE EYEWALL HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS
A SECONDARY OUTER EYEWALL HAS BEGUN TO FORM. THIS DEVELOPMENT -
TYPICAL WITH VERY INTENSE TYPHOONS - IS CAPTURED IN A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE PASSES, INCLUDING A 061656Z GCOM-W1 89 GHZ IMAGE, AS A
BRIGHT CONVECTIVE RING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE THAT IS PROVIDING
HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL VENTILATION. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE CYCLONE
WILL HAVE CRESTED THE RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN PARA 2, FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 48, COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST, AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION BEFORE BECOMING A
FULL-FLEDGED COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-7 10:43 | 显示全部楼层
JWTC 第17报 巅峰维持145KT

预测分析报文:

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)//
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EXPANSIVE AREAL
COVERAGE AS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN FLANK, WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO A NEW WELL-DEFINED
35-NM EYE. THE 12-HOUR MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE EYEWALL HAS EXPANDED
INTO THIS NEW EYE DIAMETER. THIS IS CAPTURED IN A 062316Z 89 GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AS A HIGHLY REFLECTIVE CONVECTIVE RING. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE THAT IS PROVIDING
HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL VENTILATION. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE
WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
FURTHER WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN PARA 2, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36,
COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU, JAPAN, WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NEOGURI WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST, AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION BEFORE BECOMING A
FULL-FLEDGED COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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组图打开中,请稍候......
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