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[官方预报] 1408号台风浣熊(08W)官方机构预报专帖

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发表于 2014-7-4 22:09 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-7-4 22:17 编辑

CMA今年表现不错,不仅改了报文,上午又再一次抢在JMA之前率先升格了TS
      
而JMA也罕见地12Z就直接升格TY——当然,CMA还是早了一步

台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月04日21時50分 発表

<04日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 14度00分(14.0度)
東経 140度30分(140.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 110km(60NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 500km(270NM)
北西側 330km(180NM)

<05日21時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 16度40分(16.7度)
東経 136度25分(136.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        960hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 280km(150NM)

<06日21時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 19度30分(19.5度)
東経 132度00分(132.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        940hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 440km(240NM)

<07日21時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 23度00分(23.0度)
東経 128度55分(128.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        930hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速        65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径        390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 600km(325NM)

<08日21時の予報>
存在地域        九州の南
予報円の中心        北緯 28度05分(28.1度)
東経 129度50分(129.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北 20km/h(12kt)
予報円の半径        520km(280NM)

<09日21時の予報>
存在地域        九州
予報円の中心        北緯 32度00分(32.0度)
東経 131度40分(131.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 25km/h(14kt)
予報円の半径        700km(375NM)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-4 22:11 | 显示全部楼层
J.T.W.C.第6报,变化不大,巅峰强度预报微调至125KT(GUST 150KT)
   
wp0814.gif
发表于 2014-7-4 22:30 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第6报 预测分析报文

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. A
040727Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, BANDING HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND
THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TS
08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 160 NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE STR IS DEPICTED. BASED ON THE 04/00Z
500 MB ANALYSIS, THE STR HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST, EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS TAIWAN. TS
08W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE
TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED STR. THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM FIRST BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR WESTERN JAPAN AND THE EAST
SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 175 NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96, NEAR OKINAWA. FORECAST TRACK
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ECMWF INDICATING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND
RE-CURVE JUST WEST OF OKINAWA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE RE-
CURVES THE SYSTEM OVER OR TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA. THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ALSO INDICATE DIFFERENT TRACK SPEEDS BUT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COAMPS-TC, THE MODELS SUPPORT MODEST TRACK SPEEDS 09 TO 16 KNOTS,
TYPICAL OF A POLEWARD FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER TO
OFFSET THE SLOW-TRACKING GFDN GUIDANCE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
THIS IS NOT THE TYPICAL RE-CURVE PATTERN, THEREFORE, THERE IS NO
NEED TO ADJUST FOR HISTORICAL MODEL BIAS (MODELS TOO SLOW AND WEST
OF THE ACTUAL TRACK), WHICH IS USED NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A RE-
CURVE SCENARIO. IN FACT, AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
TRACK POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 AT WHICH POINT IT
IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE SHARPLY EASTWARD AND TO UNDERGO ETT. TS 08W
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 84 WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND
DECRAESING SST.//
NNNN
发表于 2014-7-4 22:43 | 显示全部楼层
J.T.W.C.第7报,依然TS(美制TS),没升TY…
   

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. A
040727Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, BANDING HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND
THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TS
08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 160 NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE STR IS DEPICTED. BASED ON THE 04/00Z
500 MB ANALYSIS, THE STR HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST, EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS TAIWAN. TS
08W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE
TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED STR. THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM FIRST BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR WESTERN JAPAN AND THE EAST
SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 175 NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96, NEAR OKINAWA. FORECAST TRACK
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ECMWF INDICATING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND
RE-CURVE JUST WEST OF OKINAWA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE RE-
CURVES THE SYSTEM OVER OR TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA. THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ALSO INDICATE DIFFERENT TRACK SPEEDS BUT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COAMPS-TC, THE MODELS SUPPORT MODEST TRACK SPEEDS 09 TO 16 KNOTS,
TYPICAL OF A POLEWARD FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER TO
OFFSET THE SLOW-TRACKING GFDN GUIDANCE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
THIS IS NOT THE TYPICAL RE-CURVE PATTERN, THEREFORE, THERE IS NO
NEED TO ADJUST FOR HISTORICAL MODEL BIAS (MODELS TOO SLOW AND WEST
OF THE ACTUAL TRACK), WHICH IS USED NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A RE-
CURVE SCENARIO. IN FACT, AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
TRACK POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 AT WHICH POINT IT
IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE SHARPLY EASTWARD AND TO UNDERGO ETT. TS 08W
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 84 WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND
DECRAESING SST.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-5 10:26 | 显示全部楼层
CMA,传说中的逐12h路径和强度预报
似乎仅限文字电码报告…
   
SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20140705080000000.jpg
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY NEOGURI 1408 (1408) INITIAL TIME 041800 UTC
00HR 14.5N 139.1E 972HPA 35M/S
30KTS WINDS 210KM NORTHEAST
320KM SOUTHEAST
490KM SOUTHWEST
320KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 170KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
170KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H
P+12HR 15.5N 136.7E 970HPA 38M/S
P+24HR 16.6N 134.9E 966HPA 40M/S
P+36HR 17.7N 132.6E 954HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 19.2N 130.0E 944HPA 50M/S
P+60HR 20.8N 127.9E 940HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 22.9N 126.3E 932HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 28.5N 125.1E 932HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 32.8N 126.9E 954HPA 45M/S=
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY NEOGURI 1408 (1408) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC
00HR 15.2N 138.4E 968HPA 38M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
320KM SOUTHWEST
250KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 120KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 22KM/H
P+12HR 16.1N 136.3E 966HPA 40M/S
P+24HR 17.3N 134.0E 960HPA 42M/S
P+36HR 18.7N 131.5E 952HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 20.2N 129.1E 940HPA 50M/S
P+60HR 22.0N 127.4E 935HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 24.4N 126.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 29.6N 126.0E 956HPA 48M/S
P+120HR 34.1N 130.6E 965HPA 40M/S=

发表于 2014-7-5 10:33 | 显示全部楼层
JMA:强度提升至75KT(台風,強い)
   

120小时预报

120小时预报

   

72小时预报

72小时预报

台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月05日09時50分 発表

<05日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 15度10分(15.2度)
東経 138度20分(138.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        960hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 130km(70NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 500km(270NM)
北西側 330km(180NM)

<06日09時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 17度40分(17.7度)
東経 133度35分(133.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        945hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径        140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 300km(160NM)

<07日09時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 20度30分(20.5度)
東経 129度10分(129.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        930hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速        65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 440km(240NM)

<08日09時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 24度35分(24.6度)
東経 127度20分(127.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        925hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速        65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径        390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 600km(325NM)

<09日09時の予報>
存在地域        九州の南
予報円の中心        北緯 28度40分(28.7度)
東経 128度35分(128.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 20km/h(11kt)
予報円の半径        520km(280NM)

<10日09時の予報>
存在地域        九州
予報円の中心        北緯 33度10分(33.2度)
東経 130度30分(130.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 20km/h(12kt)
予報円の半径        700km(375NM)

点评

925对90……  发表于 2014-7-5 16:04
发表于 2014-7-5 11:14 | 显示全部楼层
美军第9报(7/05 00UTC):巅峰上望140KT(美制“5级飓风”)
   
wp0814 (1).gif
   
分析和预报理由(Prognostic Reasoning):
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 889 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS CURVED
BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A RAGGED 25-NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
A MESOSCALE POINT SOURCE WHICH IS PROVIDING A HIGHLY-EFFECTIVE RADIAL
OUTFLOW MECHANISM. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA, PEAKING AT 140 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY NEOGURI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYSHU, JAPAN. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION UNTIL AFTER TAU 120 WHEN THE SYSTEM FIRST BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR WESTERN JAPAN. TY
08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DECREASING
SST AND, EVENTUALLY, LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN AND NAVGEM, THE LEFTMOST OUTLIERS THAT ARE
BIASED TOWARDS AN UNLIKELY WIDER TURN.//

发表于 2014-7-5 17:04 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 第10报 巅峰150KT,GUSTS 180KT

“极限台风” 的预报。。。

预报分析报文:

DPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 813 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED, MAINTAINED A
HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 25-NM EYE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE ROBUST ALL-AROUND OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY, HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY FACTOR TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
08W OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS;
THEREFORE, THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING
AT 150 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE
AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN AFTER TAU 96 AS
THE STR BEGINS TO SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST
VALUES, AND THE START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING
PROCESS. ALTHOUGH TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES
LAND-FALL INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BIASED
TOWARDS ECMWF WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN



更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2014-7-5 21:35 | 显示全部楼层
SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20140705200000000.jpg
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY NEOGURI 1408 (1408) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC
00HR 16.6N 136.0E 955HPA 42M/S
30KTS WINDS 320KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
260KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 120KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 60KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
60KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 25KM/H
P+12HR 17.7N 133.5E 950HPA 45M/S
P+24HR 19.2N 131.0E 948HPA 48M/S
P+36HR 20.7N 128.7E 940HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 22.7N 127.3E 932HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 25.4N 126.6E 932HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 28.2N 126.7E 944HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 32.8N 129.1E 960HPA 42M/S
P+120HR 35.2N 135.8E 988HPA 25M/S=


发表于 2014-7-5 21:37 | 显示全部楼层
JMA:强度升至85KT(台風,非常に強い)
   
1408-0512.png
   
1408-5-0512.png
台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月05日21時50分 発表

<05日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        沖ノ鳥島近海
中心位置        北緯 16度40分(16.7度)
東経 136度00分(136.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        945hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 150km(80NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        南東側 500km(270NM)
北西側 330km(180NM)

<06日21時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        沖ノ鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 19度20分(19.3度)
東経 131度05分(131.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        930hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速        65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径        140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 330km(180NM)

<07日21時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 22度35分(22.6度)
東経 127度40分(127.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        920hPa
中心付近の最大風速        50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速        70m/s(135kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 480km(260NM)

<08日21時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        沖縄本島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 27度10分(27.2度)
東経 127度30分(127.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        920hPa
中心付近の最大風速        50m/s(95kt)
最大瞬間風速        70m/s(135kt)
予報円の半径        460km(250NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 700km(375NM)

<09日21時の予報>
存在地域        九州の西
予報円の中心        北緯 31度20分(31.3度)
東経 128度55分(128.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 20km/h(11kt)
予報円の半径        520km(280NM)

<10日21時の予報>
存在地域        中国地方
予報円の中心        北緯 35度00分(35.0度)
東経 132度25分(132.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 20km/h(12kt)
予報円の半径        700km(375NM)
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