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[官方预报] 1408号台风浣熊(08W)官方机构预报专帖

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发表于 2014-7-3 11:29 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
JTWC於凌晨對90W發出TCFA.并於今早升格為08W,#1預測強度上限95KTS
同時JMA也在早上8時發出GW,Next name--Neoguri


WDPN31 PGTW 030300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 01//RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HIGHLY ELONGATED AND SLOPPY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. A 022226Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A HIGHLY CHAOTIC LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHILE THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS A STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST CONTINUES TO PERSIST TO THE SOUTH AS NOTED IN A RECENT 022353Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGHLY ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS CONGRUENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

3. FORECAST REASONING.

  A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  

  B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE STR TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS PERSISTS. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY NAVGEM TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD BIAS IN TRACK.  

  C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS JAPAN AND BREAK DOWN THE STEERING STR AND ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND GAINS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THERE IS A FAIR SPREAD IN THE EXTENT OF THE NORTHWARD TURN. CONSIDERING THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND LIMITED GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//NNNN



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 楼主| 发表于 2014-7-3 11:32 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 sylar 于 2014-7-3 11:34 编辑

<03日09時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域カロリン諸島
中心位置北緯 8度40分(8.7度)
東経 146度00分(146.0度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧1004hPa
最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)

                               
登录 浏览大图与全文
<04日09時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心北緯 11度10分(11.2度)
東経 143度20分(143.3度)
進行方向、速さ北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径220km(120NM)
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发表于 2014-7-3 15:30 | 显示全部楼层
熱帯低気圧
平成26年07月03日16時05分 発表

<03日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 9度05分(9.1度)
東経 145度05分(145.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<04日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 11度35分(11.6度)
東経 142度50分(142.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)
发表于 2014-7-3 17:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖标题,更新为:1408号台风浣熊(08W)官方机构预报专帖

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC. A
030519Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED CENTER AND CHAOTIC STRUCTURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK SPEED.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS LIMITED DUE TO
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE BY KNES. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE 03/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG STR ORIENTED EAST-
WEST, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR TAIWAN. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 135 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY ERRATIC AND, IN GENERAL,
IS TRENDING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON THE LACK
OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM, TD 08W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 THEN AT A GREATER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
RECURVE WITH A 300 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. TD 08W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU 96 DUE
TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-4 00:43 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. HOWEVER, A 031151Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER AND CHAOTIC STRUCTURE, THEREFORE, THERE
IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT INITIAL POSITION
AND TRACK SPEED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS
INDICATE GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
LIMITED DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE 03/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG STR ORIENTED EAST-
WEST, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR TAIWAN. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 140 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY ERRATIC AND, IN GENERAL,
IS TRENDING FURTHER WEST OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. DUE TO THE LACK
OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM, TD 08W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 THEN AT A GREATER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER A REGION OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST, THE DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD (IMPROVED) AGREEMENT. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU 96 DUE
TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-4 10:37 | 显示全部楼层

JMA编号后第一报——东海转向

1408-00.png
   
台風第8号 (ノグリー)
平成26年07月04日10時30分 発表

<04日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 12度00分(12.0度)
東経 142度00分(142.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 330km(180NM)

<05日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 14度30分(14.5度)
東経 139度10分(139.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        980hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速        40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 220km(120NM)

<06日09時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 17度00分(17.0度)
東経 135度10分(135.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(100kt)
予報円の半径        260km(140NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 390km(210NM)

<07日09時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 19度55分(19.9度)
東経 131度05分(131.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        945hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径        390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 560km(300NM)

<08日09時の予報>
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 23度50分(23.8度)
東経 128度55分(128.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20km/h(11kt)
予報円の半径        520km(280NM)

<09日09時の予報>
存在地域        東シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 29度25分(29.4度)
東経 129度30分(129.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 25km/h(14kt)
予報円の半径        700km(375NM)
发表于 2014-7-4 10:59 | 显示全部楼层
CMA第一报
   
SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20140704080000000.jpg
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAMELESS 1408 (14XX) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC
00HR 12.3N 142.3E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 90KM NORTHEAST
90KM SOUTHEAST
90KM SOUTHWEST
90KM NORTHWEST

MOVE NW 20KM/H
P+24HR 14.7N 138.5E 984HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 17.2N 134.0E 966HPA 38M/S
P+72HR 20.2N 129.3E 950HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 24.7N 126.5E 940HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 31.1N 127.1E 947HPA 48M/S=

报文格式有所修改:
强风/烈风范围细致到4象限;移向移速改了表述(原“P12HR *** **KM/H”,现改为“MOVE *** **KM/H”)
对比一下:去年11月8日,台风第30号的报文
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HAIYAN 1330 (1330) INITIAL TIME 080000 UTC
00HR 11.0N 124.8E 892HPA 72M/S
30KTS 380KM
50KTS 160KM
P12HR WNW 35KM/H
P+24HR 12.3N 116.9E 945HPA 48M/S
P+48HR 15.4N 109.7E 945HPA 48M/S
P+72HR 18.6N 106.1E 965HPA 38M/S
P+96HR 20.6N 106.4E 985HPA 28M/S
P+120HR 22.3N 108.8E 996HPA 18M/S=

PS.官网终于恢复成120小时路径预报图了,希望别再搞“阉割”
发表于 2014-7-4 13:27 | 显示全部楼层
"第8号台风““浣熊”生成 7日夜间起影响我国东海

今年第8号台风“浣熊”(热带风暴级,英文名:NEOGURI;名字来源:韩国;名字意义:狗)已于7月4日8时在西北太平洋上生成,8时其中心位于台湾台北市东南方约2600公里的洋面上(北纬12.3度、东经142.3度),中心附近最大风力8级(18米/秒)。

中央气象台预计,台风“浣熊”将以每小时20~25公里的速度向西北方向移动,并逐渐靠近我国东海东部海域。7日开始逐渐转向北偏西方向移动,8日在东海东部海域北上,9日以后逐渐转向北偏东方向移动。预计7日夜间至8日,“浣熊”将在台湾以东洋面到东海南部附近海域达到最大强度(强台风级至超强台风级),中心附近最大风力可达15~16级(48~52米/秒)。 [分享到微博]

7日白天以前,台风“浣熊”对我国近海海域无影响。7日夜间至9日,受其影响,东海中东部、黄海南部偏东海域的风力将逐渐加大,风力9~10级,台风中心经过的海域风力可达11~13级,阵风14~15级。

专家建议,我国东部和东南部沿海各地需密切关注台风“浣熊”未来动向和发展趋势,提前做好台风防御准备工作。另外,由于“浣熊”目前距我国东部海域较远,移动路径还存在较大的变数,中央气象台将密切监视台风“浣熊”未来的移动趋势,及时提供最新预报。"
发表于 2014-7-4 14:16 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC

第4报变化不大,只存预报图;

第5报巅峰强度提高到125KT,GUSTS 145KT

分析如下:

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI), IN ASSOCIATION WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM, DEPICTS
A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
DEVELOPING EYEWALL APPARENT IN A RECENT 032214Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.
BUILDING CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS
CONTINUES TO WRAP MORE TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC, INCREASING THE ACCURACY
FOR THE POSITIONING OF TS 08W. BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY LISTED SSMIS
IMAGE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE IMPROVING EYEWALL STRUCTURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 2.0
TO 2.5 RANGE, AND APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF TS 08W. A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) REMAINS
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TS 08W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED AT ALL POSITIONS DUE
TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN STRUCTURE. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 125 KTS AT TAU 96.
   B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. MID-LATITUDE
TRANSITORY LOWS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR,
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS, WITH TS 08W
TURNING TO THE NORTH APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF OKINAWA. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD DRIFT COULD OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 72
AND 96 AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), WITH A STONG SOUTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND
AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TURNING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY TAU 120 AS THE STR BEGINS TO SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE
FROM A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN,
WHICH IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
125 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 120
THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND
THE START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
ALTHOUGH THE TS 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LAND-
FALL INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
INCREASED TO HIGH AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTEN FURTHER THROUGH
TAU 120, EXCLUDING GFDN WHICH REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST.//
NNNN
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发表于 2014-7-4 22:04 | 显示全部楼层
从起编TS到加强为TY,用时12小时
   
SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20140704200000000.jpg
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY NEOGURI 1408 (1408) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC
00HR 13.9N 140.6E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
280KM SOUTHWEST
220KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
110KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 23KM/H
P+24HR 16.2N 136.1E 966HPA 40M/S
P+48HR 18.7N 131.2E 944HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 22.4N 127.2E 932HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 27.6N 126.1E 932HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 32.9N 127.9E 954HPA 45M/S=

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