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[官方预报] 南海1407号热带风暴官方机构预报专帖

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发表于 2014-6-13 21:25 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
JMA已对南海季风低压95W发出GW,24小时内可能升格其为今年第7号台风,并予以命名。
     
此前此TD在南海的实测表现,已有持续6到7级风,阵风9级。
      
现开帖进行官方机构预报转贴。
      
相关讨论帖:
1407号台风海贝思(Hagibis)实测数据专帖
      
1407号台风海贝思(Hagibis)技术分析
      
熱帯低気圧
  6月13日21時現在
ミナミシナカイホクブ
北緯20.2゜東経116.1゜ 北北西 9 km/h
 中心気圧 998 hPa
 最大風速 15 m/s
 最大瞬間風速 23 m/s

予報14日21時
 台風
 ミナミシナカイホクブ
 北緯21.9゜東経116.3゜ 北 7 km/h
 中心気圧 996 hPa
 最大風速 18 m/s
 最大瞬間風速 25 m/s
 予報円の半径 220 km
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 楼主| 发表于 2014-6-14 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 01   INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC
00HR 20.2N 116.8E 995HPA 15M/S
P12HR N 5KM/H
P+24HR 21.9N 116.8E 992HPA 18M/S=



** WTPQ20 RJTD 140000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  140000UTC 20.3N 116.7E POOR
MOVE  E 07KT
PRES  996HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  150000UTC 22.1N 117.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE  N SLOWLY
PRES  994HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =



 楼主| 发表于 2014-6-14 10:33 | 显示全部楼层
** WTPN21 PGTW 140200 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 117.0E TO 24.1N 117.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 117.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
117.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 117.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MONSOON DEPRESSION
STRUCTURE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OBSERVED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND A BROAD CORE OF WEAKER WINDS (20-25
KNOTS). A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD, ALLOWING DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC TO INCREASE DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, RECENT
IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION PRIOR TO ANTICIPATED LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA IS
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 996 MB. GIVEN THE LOW OBSERVED CENTRAL PRESSURE AND IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150200Z.//

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-6-14 10:47 | 显示全部楼层
CMA:
   
预计,低压中心将先在原地徘徊少动,以后将缓慢向偏北方向移动,有可能于今天白天发展为热带风暴,并逐渐向广东东部到福建中部一带沿海靠近,将于明天下午到夜间在广东汕尾到福建福清一带沿海登陆。
 楼主| 发表于 2014-6-14 14:35 | 显示全部楼层
CMA率先升格热带风暴(1407号台风)

ZCZC
WSCI40 BABJ 140600
TO BCSY BCHK BCSH BCCD BCGZ
BETY BEXA BETJ BESZ BEJN BEZZ BEBJ
2053 0669 1417 0143 2456 (20.6) 9887 9976
(116.8) 9878 4104 3583 1601 3049 2467 2456
9914 9806 9899 7030 1193 4882 3634 4574
(1407) 5714 3583 1601 3049 2467 9975
BABJ/3049 9706 9914 9806=
 楼主| 发表于 2014-6-14 15:34 | 显示全部楼层
命名

** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 1407 HAGIBIS (1407) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  140600UTC 20.9N 116.8E POOR
MOVE  N 08KT
PRES  994HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  210NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF  150600UTC 22.7N 117.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE  N SLOWLY
PRES  990HPA
MXWD  045KT
GUST  065KT
48HF  160600UTC 25.2N 117.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE  N 06KT
PRES  996HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
72HF  170600UTC 27.4N 118.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

 楼主| 发表于 2014-6-14 17:29 | 显示全部楼层
NMC已经恢复了“台风快讯”更新:
   
台风快讯
2014年总第 4 期中国气象局中央气象台06月14日17时17分
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

时    间: 14 日 17 时
命    名: “海贝思”, HAGIBIS
编    号: 1407 号
中心位置: 北纬20.8度、东经116.8度  
强度等级: 热带风暴
最大风力: 8级,20 米/秒(约 72 公里/时)
中心气压: 990 hPa  
参考位置: 距离闽粤交界南方向320公里的南海北部海面上。
风圈半径: 七级风圈半径200公里
预报结论: “海贝思”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向北方向移动,
(下次更新时间为14日18时10分)
发表于 2014-6-15 00:05 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 141500 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HAGIBIS 1407 (1407) INITIAL TIME 141500 UTC
00HR 21.2N 116.8E 990HPA 20M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR N 5KM/H
P+24HR 23.6N 116.4E 998HPA 18M/S
P+48HR 26.2N 118.7E 998HPA 12M/S=
NNNN
发表于 2014-6-15 07:03 | 显示全部楼层
日本气象厅

台風第7号 (ハギビス)
平成26年06月15日06時45分 発表

<15日06時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海北部
中心位置        北緯 21度40分(21.7度)
東経 116度30分(116.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 ゆっくり
中心気圧        994hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 330km(180NM)

<16日06時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        華南
予報円の中心        北緯 23度55分(23.9度)
東経 116度55分(116.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        994hPa
最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        160km(85NM)

<17日03時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        華南
予報円の中心        北緯 26度50分(26.8度)
東経 118度55分(118.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
予報円の半径        300km(160NM)
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发表于 2014-6-15 07:07 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC

WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OF THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND HAS SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN SIZE WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EIR LOOP AS
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE BECOME DISPLACED
FROM THE LLCC WHILE POSITION FIXES FROM SEVERAL AGENCIES HAVE BECOME
MORE SPREAD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS AS DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT AS
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO OFFSET
RECENTLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND CONTINUED VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24 AND THEN SHOULD SHARPLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TS
07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND
PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTER TAU
48. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AFTERWARDS IN THE TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. COAMPS-TC CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH AN
UNLIKELY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO LAND AND THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO,
ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS. BASED ON THE TIGHT
MODEL PACKING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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