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[官方预报] 1312号台风潭美(12W)官方机构预报报文

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发表于 2013-8-16 11:27 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
随着副高与大陆高压整体脊线的北抬,热带辐合带目前整体北上,大致位于从华南陆地经台湾以东到日本以南的太平洋洋面的区域。8月16日上午,根据日本气象厅(JMA)的评价,在此热带辐合带中,1311号台风“尤特”减弱后残存的热带低压存在于广东陆地上空,而台湾以东和日本以南各还有一个新的热带低压生成。在西南季风的分流支援下,不仅尤特残余的系统仍在陆地上维持,台湾东面近海的热带低压也已经具备发展的可能。
     
日本气象厅在16日北京时9时20分对台湾附近的热带低压发出了烈风警报(GALE WARNING),这个系统很有可能发展为1312号热带风暴。它将与在其东侧的热带低压发生有趣的互动,存在双TD都发展为台风,或者双TD发生合并生成一个超大型台风的可能。
   
另一方面,在中太平洋也有不止一个热带气旋正在生成,存在命名并移到西太平洋区域的可能,这样一来,西太平洋的热带气旋活跃之势可以确定。
   
现在开帖对台湾以东近海TD a进行官方机构预报的转发。以下是JMA的GW报:
   
熱帯低気圧
平成25年08月16日10時20分 発表
<16日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 石垣島の南約180km
中心位置 北緯 22度50分(22.8度)
東経 123度50分(123.8度)
進行方向、速さ ほとんど停滞
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<17日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 石垣島の南約210km
予報円の中心 北緯 22度30分(22.5度)
東経 124度30分(124.5度)
進行方向、速さ ほとんど停滞
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-16 11:33 | 显示全部楼层
这里顺便贴下中太两个TCFA,如果命名并先后越过国际日期变更线,将抢走今年西太平洋的台风编号,并仍沿用原先的命名。
   
上一个例子是2006年的远洋超强台风IOKE,从国际日期变更线移来的时候,直接是一个猛烈台风。
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-16 11:49 | 显示全部楼层
90C和91C的预定命名是PEWA和UNALA,个人暂时翻译成佩瓦和乌娜拉。如果它们都移入国际日期变更线以西,将各抢走一个台风编号,但命名不会改变。
 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-17 03:25 | 显示全部楼层
JMA

熱帯低気圧
  8月17日 3時現在
イシガキジマ 南 270 Km
北緯22.0゜東経124.0゜ 南南東 7 km/h
 中心気圧 1000 hPa
 最大風速 15 m/s
 最大瞬間風速 23 m/s

予報18日 3時
 台風
 ミヤコジマ 南 290 Km
 北緯22.3゜東経125.9゜ 東 7 km/h
 中心気圧 998 hPa
 最大風速 18 m/s
 最大瞬間風速 25 m/s
 予報円の半径 220 km
 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-17 06:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2013-8-17 06:41 编辑

值得注意的是另一个TD[W]系统,凌晨JMA也发了GW,到底谁会成为下一个台风“潭美”,变成扑朔迷离之势。
      
JTWC也双发TCFA,另外取消了中太另一个扰动的TCFA。
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发表于 2013-8-17 14:15 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC升级12W

#1


SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001   
WTPN32 PGTW 170300   
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 124.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 124.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 21.0N 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.3N 127.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 21.8N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 22.8N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 24.0N 128.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 25.1N 125.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 25.8N 122.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 124.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI 161951Z AUG 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
162000).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

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发表于 2013-8-18 00:18 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC #3, 表示12W會被13W吞併...

WTPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 126.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 126.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 20.3N 127.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.6N 129.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 21.3N 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 22.3N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 23.7N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 24.7N 124.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 25.8N 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 126.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z
AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

wp1213.gif

WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME OBSCURED BY A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC
WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHEY HAS DEEPENED. A 171054Z
PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH A 171301Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC CONTINUE TO REMAIN DEFINED BUT THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BROKEN AND LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS
LIMITED THE OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STEERING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME WEAK AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN
TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A
BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ALONG WITH MOTION INDUCED BY DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH NEIGHBORING TD 13W, SHOULD ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM WEST. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY AND INTENSITY OF TD 13W, WHICH
COULD HAMPER THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS.
   C. TD 12W IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH TD 13W IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO TD 13W BY TAU 96. AFTER
WHICH, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE
IS LARGE VARIANCE IN THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TD 13W FORECAST COULD ALSO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TD 12W. DUE
TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-18 10:09 | 显示全部楼层
台風第12号 (チャーミー)
平成25年08月18日10時20分 発表
<18日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        沖縄の南
中心位置        北緯 20度30分(20.5度)
        東経 127度20分(127.3度)
進行方向、速さ        東 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        994hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 170km(90NM)
<19日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 20度40分(20.7度)
        東経 128度50分(128.8度)
進行方向、速さ        東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        992hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        160km(85NM)
<20日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 22度35分(22.6度)
        東経 127度50分(127.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
<21日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        沖縄の南
予報円の中心        北緯 24度00分(24.0度)
        東経 123度25分(123.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        985hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        300km(160NM)
<22日09時の予報>
存在地域        台湾海峡
予報円の中心        北緯 24度55分(24.9度)
        東経 119度10分(119.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
予報円の半径        440km(240NM)
<23日09時の予報>
存在地域        華南
予報円の中心        北緯 25度30分(25.5度)
        東経 114度10分(114.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(11kt)
予報円の半径        560km(300NM)
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-18 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
WDPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD, WHILE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEEPENED
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171926Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH A PARTIAL 171815Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEAL THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE LLCC, BUT THE CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH REMAINS BROKEN AND RESEMBLES FRAGMENTED BANDING AT
BEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED THE OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TD
12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
STEERING INFLUENCES WILL BECOME WEAK AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH AND A BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48,
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND SHOULD ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH TD 13W TO THE NORTHWEST IS WEAKENING,
STEERING INDUCED BY DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) COULD WEAKLY
INFLUENCE THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TAUS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 12W
IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THEN WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF CHINA. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC
TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT
AND SPEED OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2013-8-19 00:24 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC #7

13W已掛掉, 接下來就是12W的戲了...

WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 007   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.6N 128.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 21.7N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 23.0N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 24.0N 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.4N 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 26.0N 117.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 26.4N 114.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 127.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM SOUTHWARD
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 01C (PEWA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

wp1213.gif

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY A
BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE WHILE THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE, HAS RETAINED AN
ELONGATED STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CDO FEATURE OBSCURING THE LLCC,
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT HAS STARTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE WEST, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS)
CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. TS 12W IS QUASISTATIONARY AS IT IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER
TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK
EXTENSION OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY WITH
A POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 24,
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TS 12W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
AND FILL CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VWS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 12W IS EXPECTED
TO REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72 AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AT TAU 72, AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THEN EVENTUAL LANDFALL INTO THE EAST
COAST OF CHINA WHICH WILL LEAD TO ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC TURN
BACK TO THE WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS,
THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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