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JTWC #7
13W已掛掉, 接下來就是12W的戲了...
WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 127.7E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.0N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 127.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM SOUTHWARD
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 01C (PEWA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY A
BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE WHILE THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE, HAS RETAINED AN
ELONGATED STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CDO FEATURE OBSCURING THE LLCC,
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT HAS STARTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS STARTED TO MOVE WEST, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS)
CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. TS 12W IS QUASISTATIONARY AS IT IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER
TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK
EXTENSION OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY WITH
A POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 24,
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TS 12W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
AND FILL CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VWS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 12W IS EXPECTED
TO REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72 AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AT TAU 72, AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THEN EVENTUAL LANDFALL INTO THE EAST
COAST OF CHINA WHICH WILL LEAD TO ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CYCLONIC TURN
BACK TO THE WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS,
THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
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