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JTWC #4
WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 132.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.5N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.2N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.8N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.6N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.1N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.8N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 132.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM
EASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM
EASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A
SMALL, TIGHTLY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
091048Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE OF
THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING TO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS DUE
TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS FIXING AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 120 HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED BY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT EACH POSITION DUE TO AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE AID INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND STRONG OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES LUZON. UPON MAKING
LANDFALL WITH LUZON, TD 11W WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WEAKENING
BEFORE IT REEMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RE-INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS AN OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE SCS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 96.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND
AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN VIETNAM AND
CHINA AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE A SLIGHT
SPREAD IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TD 11W APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CHINA. THERE IS AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
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