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[官方预报] 1311号台风尤特(11W)官方机构发报贴

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发表于 2013-8-9 09:12 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
JMA:

熱帯低気圧
平成25年08月09日07時05分 発表
<09日06時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 12度35分(12.6度)
東経 135度30分(135.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<10日06時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 13度05分(13.1度)
東経 131度40分(131.7度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-9 09:15 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC  #1
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发表于 2013-8-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
補上#1 報文 ,#2預測圖已出但報文沒出


WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313
NM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A 081804Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONTINUES TO BUILD AND WRAP INTO THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
ALONG WITH THE AMSU IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME
VALUE FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE BUILDING
OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 11W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AS IT APPROACHES LUZON
ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN PHILLIPINES. INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110
KNOTS IS EXPECTED AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ARE FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON
AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). AT TAU 72, A MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG IN FROM EASTERN CHINA
AND MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE INTO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION.
THIS MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOW TD 11W AND BEGIN TO DRIVE
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE BRIEF LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON WILL
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT AFTER RE-EMERGING INTO THE SCS THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE DUE TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE DYNAMIC MODELS SLIGHTLY
DIVERGE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE AFFECT OF THE
TROUGH ON THE RIDGE AND THE LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THESE
FACTORS.//
NNNN

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发表于 2013-8-9 22:36 | 显示全部楼层
CMA:TD

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 091200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 10 INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC
00HR 13.8N 132.6E 1005HPA 15M/S
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 14.3N 130.2E 996HPA 18M/S=
NNNN
发表于 2013-8-9 23:02 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC #4

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 132.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 132.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 14.5N 130.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 15.2N 128.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 15.9N 125.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 16.8N 123.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 18.6N 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 20.1N 111.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 21.8N 107.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 132.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM
EASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

wp1113.gif

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM
EASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A
SMALL, TIGHTLY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
091048Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE OF
THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING TO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS DUE
TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS FIXING AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 120 HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED BY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT EACH POSITION DUE TO AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE AID INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
   B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND STRONG OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES LUZON. UPON MAKING
LANDFALL WITH LUZON, TD 11W WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WEAKENING
BEFORE IT REEMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RE-INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS AN OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE SCS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 96.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND
AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN VIETNAM AND
CHINA AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE A SLIGHT
SPREAD IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TD 11W APPROACHES SOUTHERN
CHINA. THERE IS AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
发表于 2013-8-10 08:57 | 显示全部楼层
JMA:

台風第11号 (ウトア)
平成25年08月10日09時45分 発表

<10日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 13度35分(13.6度)
東経 130度35分(130.6度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        992hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(65kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 220km(120NM)

<10日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 14度10分(14.2度)
東経 128度55分(128.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        980hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30m/s(55kt)
最大瞬間風速        40m/s(80kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 170km(90NM)

<11日09時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 15度05分(15.1度)
東経 127度10分(127.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(100kt)
予報円の半径        140km(75NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 260km(140NM)

<12日09時の予報>
強さ        強い
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 17度25分(17.4度)
東経 124度10分(124.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        950hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 330km(180NM)

<13日09時の予報>
強さ        非常に強い
存在地域        バシー海峡
予報円の中心        北緯 19度55分(19.9度)
東経 120度10分(120.2度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        940hPa
中心付近の最大風速        45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速        60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径        300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 460km(250NM)
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发表于 2013-8-10 11:04 | 显示全部楼层
北京:
   
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 100000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS UTOR 1311 (1311) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC
00HR 13.6N 130.7E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS 100KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 14.9N 126.6E 975HPA 33M/S
P+48HR 17.0N 122.7E 960HPA 42M/S
P+72HR 19.3N 116.6E 970HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 20.6N 112.8E 970HPA 35M/S
P+120HR 21.7N 108.4E 980HPA 30M/S=
NNNN


发表于 2013-8-10 11:04 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC #6
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发表于 2013-8-10 14:54 | 显示全部楼层
北京:
   
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 100600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY UTOR 1311 (1311) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC
00HR 14.0N 129.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 50KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 15.3N 125.7E 960HPA 42M/S
P+48HR 17.8N 120.9E 970HPA 35M/S
P+72HR 19.6N 115.3E 965HPA 38M/S
P+96HR 21.1N 112.3E 965HPA 38M/S
P+120HR 22.7N 108.3E 985HPA 25M/S=
NNNN
 楼主| 发表于 2013-8-10 17:30 | 显示全部楼层
台風第11号 (ウトア)
平成25年08月10日15時50分 発表
<10日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 13度55分(13.9度)
東経 129度10分(129.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 965hPa
中心付近の最大風速 35m/s(70kt)
最大瞬間風速 50m/s(100kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域 全域 90km(50NM)
15m/s以上の強風域 全域 220km(120NM)

<11日03時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 14度40分(14.7度)
東経 127度20分(127.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 955hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 200km(110NM)

<11日15時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 15度35分(15.6度)
東経 125度35分(125.6度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 945hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径 130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 260km(140NM)

<12日15時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 18度00分(18.0度)
東経 122度30分(122.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 940hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(85kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(120kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 350km(190NM)

<13日15時の予報>
強さ 非常に強い
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 20度10分(20.2度)
東経 118度20分(118.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 930hPa
中心付近の最大風速 45m/s(90kt)
最大瞬間風速 65m/s(130kt)
予報円の半径 390km(210NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 560km(300NM)
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