南海1310号热带风暴“山竹”官方机构预报专帖

yz0330 · 发表于 2013-8-5 11:35

原处西太平洋的的热带辐合带中扰动94W，在飞燕西行消灭后，趋向菲律宾东南部，并穿越群岛进入南海南部海面。8月5日上午，日本气象厅对系统发出GW，可能在24小时内命名系统。

开帖粘贴各家官方机构对此TC的预报。

JMA：
熱帯低気圧
平成25年08月05日10時25分発表
<05日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域南シナ海
中心位置北緯 10度50分(10.8度)
東経 118度00分(118.0度)
進行方向、速さ西北西ゆっくり
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<06日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 12度30分(12.5度)
東経 116度30分(116.5度)
進行方向、速さ北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

yz0330 · 发表于 2013-8-5 21:06

JMA

熱帯低気圧
平成25年08月05日22時05分発表
<05日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域南シナ海
中心位置北緯 11度50分(11.8度)
東経 116度05分(116.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
<06日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
東経 112度30分(112.5度)
進行方向、速さ北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

yz0330 · 发表于 2013-8-5 21:35

NMC（中央气象台）

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 051200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 09 INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC
00HR 11.9N 116.0E 1002HPA 15M/S
P12HR NW 25KM/H
P+24HR 15.6N 111.6E 995HPA 20M/S=
NNNN

Murilo · 发表于 2013-8-6 08:52

WTPQ20 BABJ 060000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAMELESS 1310 (1310) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC
00HR 13.6N 113.9E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 150KM
P12HR NW 25KM/H
P+24HR 17.5N 109.7E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 21.3N 106.3E 998HPA 18M/S=

Murilo · 发表于 2013-8-6 09:06

JTWC#1

yz0330 · 发表于 2013-8-6 18:49

中央气象台

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 060900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAMELESS 1310 (13XX) INITIAL TIME 060900 UTC
00HR 14.8N 112.3E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 150KM
P12HR NW 27KM/H
P+24HR 19.3N 108.5E 995HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 21.6N 105.5E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

li0627 · 发表于 2013-8-6 20:58

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 061200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAMELESS 1310 (13XX) INITIAL TIME 061200 UTC
00HR 15.5N 111.3E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 150KM
P12HR NW 20KM/H
P+24HR 19.8N 108.1E 995HPA 20M/S
P+48HR 21.7N 104.6E 1002HPA 14M/S=
NNNN

li0627 · 发表于 2013-8-6 21:16

台風　第10号発生
　 8月 6日21時現在
ミナミシナカイ
北緯15.8゜東経110.8゜　西北西 20 km/h
　中心気圧 998 hPa
　最大風速 18 m/s
　最大瞬間風速 25 m/s
　強風半径(15m/s以上) 220 km

予報 7日 9時
　台風
　ミナミシナカイ
　北緯17.6゜東経109.1゜　北西 20 km/h
　中心気圧 998 hPa
　最大風速 18 m/s
　最大瞬間風速 25 m/s
　予報円の半径 90 km

予報 7日21時
　台風
　トンキンワン
　北緯19.6゜東経107.4゜　北西 20 km/h
　中心気圧 994 hPa
　最大風速 20 m/s
　最大瞬間風速 30 m/s
　予報円の半径 140 km

予報 8日21時
　熱帯低気圧
　ベトナム
　北緯22.2゜東経105.0゜　北西 15 km/h
　中心気圧 1002 hPa
　予報円の半径 200 km

vicente1208 · 发表于 2013-8-6 22:40

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 110.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 110.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.8N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.6N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.9N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.5N 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 109.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM
EASTWARD OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z.  //
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDS, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM RJTD. TS 10W IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS MANGKHUT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE STR. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 JUST SOUTHEAST OF HANOI. THE SYSTEM
WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAINLY DUE TO
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE WILL
THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 48 DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AS THE LEFT
OUTLIER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. //
NNNN

vicente1208 · 发表于 2013-8-7 23:40

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 106.2E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.5N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.0N 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 105.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM SOUTH OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 072100Z. //
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM
SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE COLLAPSED
AS THEY BEGAN TO INTERACT WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF VIETNAM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A CLOSED LOW LEVEL REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE ON A
071055Z 37 GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS MANGKHUT IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
SOUTH OF HANOI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS VWS AND LAND INTERACTION TAKE THEIR TOLL, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC
FORECAST. //
NNNN

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[官方预报] 南海1310号热带风暴“山竹”官方机构预报专帖

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