2013年06号台风“温比亚”（06W,RUMBIA）追击分析帖

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菲东低纬热带扰动已经形成，美军临时编号99W。

一、GFS数值预报台风路径

趋向巴士海峡，可能撞吕宋岛而后趋向广东及东南沿海

二、美军JTWC评估

270600UTC：

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
133.5E IMATELE, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 96 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 270108Z AMSU/B MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 12
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (05-
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WEAK OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

大意即是北京时间下午2时，定位为6.4N-133.5E，低层对流混乱，未来24小时发展为热带气旋的概率低。

三、个人分析

1、目前99W所处风切微弱，辐合良好，东侧高空低涡有一定距离，未发生严重干扰，未来24小时在北上地转加强和季风日节律支援下，有利发展

2、前方总体来说，将面临高空南亚高压东风强风速强风切和吕宋岛地形阻挡，不利发展

3、但是如果不撞吕宋岛，前方南压高压有24小时调整期，期间风切有所减弱，在良好的辐合下，或可获得一定发展时间，有可能获得一定程度抵御未来强风切，成为今年第6号台风

今年第6号台风的命名，将叫做        温比亚，Rumbia，来自马来西亚，意思是棕榈。

yz0330

JMA最近节操堪忧，这么快就GW了……

diva49

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
133.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
MORE DEFINED AS A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH HAS BEGUN TO FORM AND
WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 271106Z 37 GHZ SSMI/S
MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS OPENED UP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, EXTRAPOLATED FROM
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


JTWC晚上10时升為为MEDIUM

将臣

美军JTWC已经发布TCFA（热带气旋形成警报），见附录。

按数值预报和个人分析，99W将于30日前后进入南海。

世纪气象页头将于10时开启TCI（Tropical Cyclone Information，热带气旋消息）。

今日个人事物较多，将于下午或晚上找时间发布TCI详细分析。

其他资深等级以上会员有时间也欢迎在恶劣天气或台风探索版发布详细分析。

附录：

1、TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 271930MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 130.8E TO 13.1N 126.2EWITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 271452Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 9.0N 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 509 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILLIPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS CONSOLIDATING BENEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN PALAU AND MINDANAO. A 271106Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, BUT IMPROVING, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AROUND THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 271452Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. A 271800Z NEARBY SHIP REPORT INDICATED 230 WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND 1006.9 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASING, BUT STILL MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, POSSIBLY INCREASING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281930Z.//NNNN

2、卫星云图

Satellite name
    MTSAT2R
File name
    201306272332
Date and time
    Jun 27 2013 23:32 (UTC)
Receiving station
    ERI : Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo (Tokyo, Japan)
Quicklook image

sylar

早上十時,JTWC正式升格為06W

yz0330

系统于21时15分获得命名，成为1306号台风温比亚

kitty8123

yz0330 发表于 2013-6-28 21:20
系统于21时15分获得命名，成为1306号台风温比亚

真懒，不加个图么
   

   
日本第一报：

将臣

本帖已经更改标题，没时间开新帖，就99W原帖追击吧。

已经补发TCI 分析报告：

http://www.21cma.net/thread-10928-1-1.html

win107123

系统目前稳定地沿着副高西南侧的东南气流向偏西北方移动，由于引导气流比较明显，一天下来速度还是比较快的，目前在菲律宾群岛中部受地形影响对流还是比较凌乱的爆发，在吕宋岛西面也有微弱的地形波出现，至于进入南海后何时明显北转还尚待观察，暂时来看进入南海后移动速度也会不慢，所以其整合加强的时间也会比较有限

开尔文

出岛后整合得不错，高SST和西南气流卷入、弱风切变促成小规模爆发，目前对流尚可，卷出一个疑似云卷的风眼，强度稳健增强。北京和东京不知道为什么不升STS，可能跟分析的T值偏低有关。
     
路径方面暂时看还是稳定的，后期北分量将加大，登陆地个人觉得粤西可能性最大。