|
|
有戲了,JTWC和JMA預測後期完全相反{:soso_e104:}
=========================================================================
WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (YAGI) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 548 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE IR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 081138Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE,
ADDITIONALLY SHOWS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC THAT
IS OVERALL BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY, ALONG WITH POSITION FIXES FROM
PGTW, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED
AT 25 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED AT APPROXIMATELY 15N
155E. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING AND TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. GENERAL INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAIN FAVORABLE, ALLOWING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO MODIFY AND BEGIN TO RE-ORIENT DUE TO MIDLATITUDE INTERACTION.
THIS WILL DRIVE TD 03W ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS JAPAN
THROUGH TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY AFTER TAU 48, INTENSITIES WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE (<26 DEGREES
CELSIUS) NEAR LATITUDE 25N, AND VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND LENDS TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND FURTHER
WEAKEN UNDER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AT TAU
96, TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF JAPAN. THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TD
03W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU
120. NAVGEM TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST, NEAR NORTHERN KYUSHU,
THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL PACKING, AS IT IS BUILDING THE
STEERING RIDGE FURTHER WEST THEN THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NAVGEM SOLUTION AND FAVOR THE GFS, ECMWF AND
EGRR SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS.//
NNNN
|
 组图打开中，请稍候......
|
IP卡
狗仔卡
发表于 2013-6-8 21:50
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2013-6-8 22:05
发表于 2013-6-10 11:25
楼主
