01B "MAHASEN"--13年北半球夏季風之始?

sylar

現時部分數值對於這個92B能否順利發展成旋風,仍然存在分岐

目前JTWC系統評級為MEDIUM,現時有趣的是

92B正南的南半球,有一個94S發展中,兩者的互動,將相當有趣

但是是否順利發展成旋風也好,它的出現,已經是一個季節性訊號

按歷年經驗,印度夏季風分兩階段建立,第一階段多發生於五月頭一至兩個星期

在孟加拉灣或阿拉伯海有明顯低壓系統發展

第二階段通常是五月底到六月初,越赤道氣流由南半球跨越索馬里,然後轉成偏西風吹過整個印度洋進入南海

話不多說,對於這個BOB,本壇相關討論近日已經相當多了






相關討論:2013年立夏节气环流形势展望

关于孟加拉湾夏季风爆发气旋BOB涡的说明

GFS：孟加拉湾将出现强烈热带气旋

methk

92B和94S的成对出现，或许揭示了之前一段时间有一组与MJO有关的赤道罗斯贝-开尔文波经过了，首楼的卫星图片也可以印证。

如果92B能够发展为旋风，按照印度洋风向和孟加拉湾西岸北岸降水量之明显转折为定义的话，印度夏季风有望稍微提前建立 （一般为5月最后一候到6月第二候）。


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補圖(MJO):

将臣

我认为，92B和24S这对偶极子的此消彼长，无论对气象爱好者和科研者，都更有意义，可查看数值演变

象神

爆发了 {:soso__14022426304211437665_4:}

diva49

WTIO21 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 93.7E TO 9.6N 89.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
93.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF
BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 092305Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.  
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

超级单体

云图形态已经比较有组织，近红外强化云图可见眼区，估计高层中心下沉和暖心形成中

开尔文

JTWC升格气旋风暴01B，上望旋风，箭指缅甸

sylar

印度氣象局於中午時段命名01B為"MAHASEN"

114989597

难道云南会成为我国今年第一个受到热带气旋影响的省份？？？{:soso_e113:}

将臣

我将11日8-22时的风云圆盘存到skydrive，大家通过不同方式查看可以发现热带辐合带随太阳直射点的变化：

https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=86AA2011F2CDF101!1562