西伯利亚与我国南方气温

CMFCN · 发表于 2012-12-16 01:32

中西伯利亚近20天气温偏低较大。。这样的情况在2006年1月中下旬也出现过，06年1月中下旬西西伯利亚，中西伯利亚气温偏低幅度之大为40年来罕见。
但是我国南方还是偏暖了。所以北方地区的“极冷” 不一定导致南方出现强的降温过程，一切都要看上游是否阻塞，对应的乌拉尔山脊位是否能够持续存在，并且偏向乌山东面，在没有合适的阻塞高压，合理的乌山脊位，而且小槽不断干扰下游脊位出现调整，导致横槽转竖，才能给我国中东部地区带去强降温过程。
否则即使贝湖地区气温偏低10度以上，也没南方什么事情。
cwhanson 发表于 2012-12-15 22:30 《2012年大雪节气环流展望》

是的，就地面来说，是冷空气路径。

西伯利亚冷堆与我国中东部或江南气温，以再分析实际气温做曲线（非距平），在1月上，年代际振荡是一致的，但逐年来说，虽然更多是正相关，但也有负相关。

其他月份有的分析出来可就相当混乱，但冬半年来说，总体还是与冷空气强度与南下幅度有关。

以下各楼为再分析原数据、基础绘图曲线和再分析位势与气温。

西伯利亚取值区域：（45-60N），（75-90E）
中国中东部取值区域：（25-35N），（110-120E）
中国江南取值区域：（25-30N），（110-120E）


PS.
只分析一部分具备启发意义的图片，如果是真正的气象爱好者，大家可以自己动手学分析，也应该学会并正面应用再分析。

（任何知识，包括气象气候，都是双刃剑，都可以被反面应用，比如食品技术的反面应用。

花心藤龙活跃于官方气象论坛和微博，影响力不小，善用是盼。）

相关文章：《西伯利亚高压气温与太阳活动相关性》

CMFCN · 发表于 2012-12-16 01:36

西伯利亚取值区域：（45-60N），（75-90E）

1948  -12.045  -12.293 -5.467 1.418 7.315 14.860 19.843 16.974 11.278 4.295 -8.331  -13.528
1949  -10.239 -8.990 -8.766 3.193 9.117 15.007 17.709 18.715 8.124 2.481  -12.115  -18.897
1950  -13.226  -11.890 -7.250 -2.577 9.479 17.372 20.641 17.944 12.706 1.560  -12.043  -12.581
1951  -14.863  -20.328 -6.603 1.294 11.521 16.825 20.526 15.497 12.966 2.533 -7.712 -7.482
1952  -11.792  -13.116 -7.736 -0.734 10.193 16.877 20.354 18.551 12.490 0.301  -16.315  -14.818
1953  -13.242  -10.355 -4.990 1.101 10.517 17.013 20.951 16.299 14.034 1.363  -12.803  -11.378
1954  -15.781  -15.324 -8.124 -0.963 6.051 15.976 17.701 18.184 11.154 3.090 -9.958  -19.421
1955  -12.896  -14.443 -8.115 -0.128 11.027 17.915 19.914 18.707 9.572 1.866 -5.886  -14.030
1956  -17.121  -15.420 -8.940 0.486 10.054 14.133 20.163 17.149 9.197 2.561 -7.216  -13.958
1957  -15.123  -14.435 -8.331 -1.614 7.618 16.799 17.787 15.768 11.395 1.448 -8.587  -10.738
1958  -16.193  -10.826  -10.081 -2.037 6.194 13.347 17.737 15.869 8.409 0.883 -7.121  -13.737
1959  -14.677  -12.744 -6.787 0.011 6.651 15.505 16.895 15.019 11.635 0.018  -13.273  -18.269
1960  -16.747  -12.029  -12.467 -1.591 5.393 14.014 15.848 14.086 9.270 -0.855  -12.803  -14.263
1961  -15.011  -12.316 -6.756 1.362 8.070 13.205 16.982 14.530 9.474 -4.430 -8.467  -13.226
1962  -13.484  -11.802 -6.235 -0.414 10.352 15.338 17.850 15.402 9.631 -0.272  -11.556  -12.528
1963  -13.445  -10.339 -6.784 -4.918 5.342 14.075 17.263 14.235 7.432 0.641 -6.085  -11.827
1964  -11.345  -17.496 -9.955 -3.026 8.183 15.022 18.250 16.594 10.097 -1.844 -5.464  -11.465
1965  -13.771  -12.533 -5.885 -0.005 10.840 16.188 19.771 15.632 10.487 2.103 -9.539  -14.575
1966  -15.605  -14.718 -7.561 -1.071 7.805 15.816 18.514 16.893 13.695 0.234  -10.751  -20.729
1967  -16.489  -15.120 -6.470 2.833 10.200 15.579 19.102 13.844 7.369 3.023  -11.094  -11.678
1968  -16.560  -14.436 -5.106 -0.443 9.770 14.511 18.597 15.837 5.978 -0.187  -13.121  -20.009
1969  -25.434  -23.365  -10.561 -0.648 6.443 15.689 20.838 13.587 8.408 0.121 -6.830  -15.095
1970  -16.660  -13.695  -10.607 1.170 7.670 14.922 17.440 15.161 10.756 -0.411 -9.849  -16.020
1971  -14.365  -18.229  -10.424 1.036 7.904 15.302 17.081 15.785 10.245 2.736 -4.818  -12.074
1972  -20.457  -16.979 -9.931 1.934 7.227 15.090 15.740 14.790 7.173 -0.196 -8.048  -14.363
1973  -16.187  -14.427 -7.210 1.517 6.727 15.533 18.172 16.693 10.656 -0.394 -5.080  -10.111
1974  -19.329  -19.121 -9.271 3.516 9.313 15.445 19.509 16.675 8.285 -2.577  -12.214  -17.250
1975  -12.348  -12.457 -5.441 0.839 6.964 14.976 19.712 15.710 9.839 -0.409  -10.002  -14.390
1976  -12.267  -16.251  -10.945 0.799 9.280 17.107 17.503 16.288 10.071 -3.116  -11.391  -17.242
1977  -20.490  -15.881 -7.178 2.466 9.870 18.250 18.401 15.353 11.332 1.453 -4.519  -13.227
1978  -13.275  -14.881 -7.714 2.844 7.361 16.369 19.319 13.757 11.635 1.903 -5.099  -12.080
1979  -19.657  -11.989 -8.573 -1.209 8.103 16.854 19.189 15.779 10.637 1.494 -8.610  -10.860
1980  -16.772  -14.628 -9.587 0.781 10.213 16.169 18.452 16.950 10.590 0.724 -5.877  -10.933
1981  -14.612  -12.965 -4.678 3.464 10.044 18.334 18.215 17.496 10.103 -1.340 -9.502  -12.196
1982  -14.314  -12.228  -10.063 4.518 10.765 18.888 18.860 16.636 10.514 0.556 -6.356  -10.420
1983  -10.702 -9.647 -4.679 0.245 6.436 17.252 19.383 17.406 8.773 2.586 -4.459 -9.991
1984  -14.818  -17.289 -5.789 -2.068 8.786 16.035 17.412 17.182 10.516 0.435  -11.399  -21.780
1985  -14.226  -16.065 -9.207 3.101 7.753 15.398 18.875 16.494 9.960 0.527 -9.210  -13.602
1986  -13.346  -14.375 -6.934 1.711 9.485 14.948 20.117 16.611 10.086 0.059 -8.099  -14.326
1987  -14.778  -11.638 -8.522 0.949 10.550 13.627 20.110 18.306 10.120 -2.269  -12.975  -11.268
1988  -14.784  -17.320 -7.019 2.880 7.663 15.616 19.071 17.007 11.845 0.756 -4.885 -9.448
1989  -13.206  -12.798 -4.335 -0.111 10.082 14.958 19.567 17.597 9.455 1.678 -7.881 -9.601
1990  -16.386  -12.103 -3.792 2.115 10.781 17.645 19.199 16.665 10.165 1.240 -8.100  -12.141
1991  -12.370  -14.019  -10.102 2.909 9.887 17.421 20.068 15.740 11.380 1.720 -7.205  -14.111
1992  -10.193  -11.249 -7.492 0.772 9.905 14.278 19.021 15.895 5.869 0.334 -7.982  -11.943
1993  -12.739  -11.293 -6.308 1.374 6.653 16.337 18.980 16.722 8.398 0.715  -13.357  -13.852
1994  -14.470  -16.815 -6.943 1.174 9.449 18.266 19.283 16.583 8.793 1.457 -5.516  -13.270
1995  -14.400 -8.833 -6.089 3.763 9.234 13.365 19.099 17.591 10.715 2.644 -4.754  -12.146
1996  -19.439  -14.145 -9.346 -1.749 7.881 15.668 20.012 14.527 9.062 0.598 -8.538  -12.655
1997  -13.003  -11.766 -3.135 6.097 11.466 15.659 17.889 16.341 11.600 5.709  -10.685  -15.338
1998  -17.362  -10.921 -7.747 -0.697 8.565 16.390 20.486 19.731 9.483 1.980  -10.492 -9.982
1999  -14.781 -8.715  -13.314 0.355 12.142 14.545 20.812 17.410 9.475 3.422 -8.211 -9.484
2000  -16.277  -10.473 -5.197 2.641 10.394 16.878 18.334 17.710 10.778 -2.014  -11.968  -13.512
2001  -17.767  -12.853 -5.030 0.920 12.894 16.873 16.934 18.233 10.261 1.098 -4.479  -15.483
2002 -9.214 -7.808 -3.564 -1.071 9.941 16.127 18.140 17.576 11.470 0.931 -5.993  -16.547
2003  -11.458  -12.095 -7.547 -1.078 10.422 18.191 17.277 17.777 11.186 2.656  -10.535  -10.872
2004  -14.986 -9.887 -8.277 0.563 11.614 17.322 18.792 16.247 10.188 2.822 -4.753  -15.168
2005  -15.143  -17.672 -4.531 1.911 9.755 17.016 19.875 16.908 11.507 4.282 -6.259  -14.589
2006  -22.594  -12.793 -5.177 -0.349 8.459 18.771 18.753 15.332 11.752 1.808 -5.852 -8.822
2007 -9.778  -12.188 -7.402 5.394 9.692 15.233 20.382 16.594 12.131 1.729 -6.368  -12.572
2008  -18.937  -12.406 -2.809 1.122 11.192 17.264 20.270 16.848 9.583 4.068 -4.124  -13.535
2009  -14.659  -16.471 -6.100 3.427 9.067 14.023 18.629 16.727 10.781 2.621 -9.448  -16.948
2010  -19.844  -19.609 -8.443 0.288 7.702 16.457 17.780 17.268 10.552 3.754 -4.877  -17.352
2011  -20.378  -12.921 -7.166 4.733 9.900 18.614 17.343 16.356 11.885 4.980 -8.441  -13.067
2012  -18.585  -16.557 -5.990 4.576 10.149 19.707 21.020 16.943 12.385 1.847 -9.627 -999.999

Surface Air Temperature (C)
Latitude Range used: 60.0 to  45.0
Longitude Range used:  75.0 to  90.0

CMFCN · 发表于 2012-12-16 01:38

中国中东部取值区域：（25-35N），（110-120E）

1948 2.707 6.975 13.333 18.253 21.172 23.683 24.555 24.987 23.306 17.628 10.084 6.651
1949 3.414 7.181 11.002 16.354 21.676 24.154 24.629 24.495 23.634 16.992 9.531 2.422
1950 4.534 5.330 11.005 16.508 20.709 23.493 24.596 24.353 22.453 19.580 8.611 2.310
1951 0.893 6.531 8.766 16.231 20.675 23.403 24.385 25.148 22.670 18.301 9.956 5.879
1952 2.388 3.879 11.820 16.912 21.462 23.938 25.085 24.641 22.653 17.012 11.709 1.225
1953 0.163 4.507 11.163 14.700 20.958 23.759 25.592 25.644 21.917 18.219 10.121 3.826
1954 5.038 6.354 7.835 17.610 20.992 23.347 24.310 24.532 22.446 16.822 11.327 1.369
1955 -1.193 5.975 10.350 16.712 20.562 23.226 24.487 24.050 23.433 16.215 8.315 4.664
1956 -0.198 2.913 10.179 17.077 20.212 23.640 25.014 24.112 20.931 15.459 8.346 3.549
1957 4.204 2.652 9.916 15.770 19.077 21.762 24.810 23.632 18.807 14.709 11.600 6.501
1958 1.941 6.134 11.306 16.472 18.797 22.805 25.020 23.234 20.362 13.793 9.750 6.880
1959 2.375 5.735 10.838 15.384 18.466 22.426 25.118 24.699 20.605 16.833 9.907 5.655
1960 4.472 7.917 11.755 14.456 18.036 22.662 24.009 23.163 21.035 14.674 10.482 4.032
1961 3.623 6.001 9.418 15.216 18.833 22.948 24.839 23.927 20.492 15.753 11.613 6.256
1962 1.892 7.142 9.437 13.616 18.866 21.723 24.571 23.360 20.548 15.170 9.397 6.288
1963 1.494 5.221 10.563 14.961 20.386 22.179 24.011 24.071 21.351 15.376 11.408 5.456
1964 4.170 2.371 10.501 17.035 19.059 22.009 24.847 24.002 21.113 16.609 10.296 5.312
1965 5.258 7.159 10.148 15.256 20.283 22.772 24.618 23.859 21.313 17.750 12.723 4.535
1966 5.644 8.434 12.542 16.417 19.871 22.867 24.780 25.182 21.128 17.468 11.337 4.403
1967 1.927 3.981 9.659 14.183 20.746 23.666 25.288 25.478 20.100 15.103 9.068 0.409
1968 3.065 1.244 10.347 14.696 19.420 22.699 24.316 23.861 20.416 14.972 11.388 7.570
1969 2.320 1.755 8.730 15.108 20.195 21.885 24.481 24.172 21.235 15.954 8.073 4.001
1970 1.315 6.513 7.178 13.687 19.596 22.027 24.319 24.306 20.578 15.388 9.525 5.186
1971 1.589 4.148 8.432 14.653 19.125 22.921 25.268 23.640 20.069 14.202 10.011 4.269
1972 3.317 2.428 10.009 14.000 19.175 23.234 23.969 23.744 19.810 16.070 10.179 4.970
1973 3.315 8.250 11.667 16.540 19.191 22.264 24.038 24.158 20.190 14.829 9.934 3.254
1974 2.250 3.294 8.881 16.010 19.872 22.575 24.295 23.281 21.595 15.751 11.015 3.982
1975 4.482 5.769 9.758 15.423 18.721 22.944 24.548 24.174 21.936 16.129 9.276 2.847
1976 3.229 6.514 8.436 13.958 19.552 22.165 23.842 24.415 20.462 16.990 7.581 5.358
1977 0.440 4.440 11.497 16.481 19.720 23.336 25.293 23.992 21.090 17.980 10.406 7.882
1978 3.995 4.780 9.654 16.270 20.042 23.693 25.416 25.232 21.533 16.215 10.577 6.773
1979 4.957 8.027 10.078 15.106 18.877 23.537 25.083 24.533 20.497 17.331 9.386 7.658
1980 3.769 3.820 9.136 14.596 19.529 23.438 24.759 23.664 20.460 16.920 13.062 5.135
1981 2.697 5.750 11.741 16.197 19.387 23.041 25.174 25.161 20.901 14.787 9.096 4.394
1982 4.564 5.161 10.175 14.596 20.610 22.261 24.388 24.187 20.360 18.045 11.229 4.624
1983 3.270 4.655 8.825 15.814 20.411 22.909 24.896 24.381 22.334 17.017 11.046 4.909
1984 1.391 2.747 9.593 14.893 18.901 23.509 24.905 24.213 20.485 16.165 11.771 2.975
1985 3.143 5.364 7.207 15.516 20.173 22.699 24.732 24.684 20.639 16.651 10.598 3.565
1986 3.874 3.904 9.931 15.744 20.666 23.495 24.450 24.165 21.091 15.528 9.673 5.937
1987 5.447 7.025 9.994 14.986 19.728 22.190 24.738 24.589 20.904 17.460 11.011 5.695
1988 4.286 4.294 7.576 15.131 20.192 23.866 25.345 24.125 20.896 16.424 10.541 6.276
1989 3.792 4.935 9.433 15.419 19.398 23.043 24.437 24.105 21.404 16.845 9.925 6.899
1990 3.662 5.704 11.037 14.969 19.586 23.509 25.252 24.912 21.639 16.667 12.578 5.881
1991 4.026 6.325 9.725 15.129 19.272 23.331 25.139 24.138 21.248 16.037 10.734 5.963
1992 4.364 5.999 8.181 16.539 19.756 22.642 25.162 24.434 21.177 15.038 10.461 7.200
1993 2.177 7.420 9.841 15.509 19.185 23.615 24.447 23.899 21.511 16.194 10.593 4.890
1994 4.848 5.167 8.768 16.842 21.705 23.525 25.711 24.985 20.854 15.892 13.135 6.967
1995 3.777 5.718 10.152 15.335 20.354 23.310 25.273 24.635 21.606 17.072 10.757 5.029
1996 3.804 4.385 8.793 13.872 19.617 23.700 24.808 24.397 21.712 17.140 10.265 6.763
1997 3.841 5.972 11.421 15.539 21.198 23.535 24.947 25.147 19.958 17.499 11.195 6.020
1998 2.696 7.206 10.106 18.071 19.966 23.321 25.694 25.181 22.071 18.440 13.877 7.547
1999 5.674 7.979 10.268 16.386 19.998 23.435 24.745 24.206 22.564 17.054 11.304 6.136
2000 3.010 4.574 11.383 16.423 21.591 23.671 25.616 24.602 21.227 16.692 10.016 7.399
2001 4.483 6.764 11.675 15.540 21.540 23.619 25.995 24.304 21.814 17.832 11.625 4.558
2002 6.984 8.894 12.933 16.604 19.604 24.362 25.427 24.195 21.274 16.861 11.182 5.012
2003 4.125 7.434 10.132 16.071 20.312 23.528 25.874 24.872 22.374 16.522 11.117 5.210
2004 3.526 8.622 10.535 17.281 20.631 23.303 25.251 24.426 21.538 16.364 12.370 6.120
2005 2.280 3.761 9.200 17.908 20.768 24.749 25.649 23.958 22.394 16.524 13.166 3.784
2006 4.242 5.460 11.289 16.830 20.341 24.229 25.711 25.202 20.999 19.497 12.866 5.883
2007 3.869 9.995 11.526 15.434 22.148 23.819 25.454 25.088 21.470 17.041 11.270 6.620
2008 1.414 2.760 12.204 16.433 20.901 23.185 25.275 24.739 22.209 18.048 11.149 6.114
2009 3.277 9.496 10.675 16.132 20.242 24.611 25.600 24.847 22.296 18.716 8.249 4.654
2010 4.618 6.744 10.002 13.487 20.244 22.866 25.857 25.272 22.305 16.256 11.889 6.108
2011 -0.691 6.378 8.761 16.416 20.103 24.126 25.649 24.527 20.921 16.544 13.416 3.778
2012 2.285 4.091 9.811 17.309 21.165 24.089 25.887 24.726 20.956 17.578 10.122 -999.999

Surface Air Temperature (C)
Latitude Range used: 35.0 to 25.0
Longitude Range used: 110.0 to 120.0

CMFCN · 发表于 2012-12-16 01:39

中国江南取值区域：（25-30N），（110-120E）

1948 5.729 10.397 16.172 19.805 22.115 23.756 24.206 24.977 23.406 19.094 12.144 9.744
1949 5.942 9.766 14.430 18.352 21.802 23.681 24.429 24.380 24.181 18.592 12.238 5.746
1950 7.389 7.772 13.442 18.181 21.539 23.529 24.159 24.206 23.177 21.246 11.073 4.775
1951 3.741 9.751 11.063 18.694 21.160 23.368 24.295 24.855 23.580 19.343 12.203 8.340
1952 5.394 7.399 15.000 17.893 22.276 23.969 24.710 24.523 23.241 19.420 14.217 4.251
1953 3.316 7.191 13.550 16.408 21.499 23.988 25.078 25.390 22.404 20.196 12.758 6.455
1954 8.430 9.145 9.380 19.942 22.493 23.874 24.619 24.642 23.106 18.921 13.547 4.951
1955 1.872 8.904 13.471 18.982 21.714 23.331 24.336 23.944 24.175 18.108 10.219 7.171
1956 2.691 5.780 13.024 18.918 21.659 23.865 24.936 24.472 22.007 17.213 10.652 6.819
1957 8.034 5.151 12.107 17.695 20.424 22.965 25.343 24.441 20.336 16.081 13.627 9.135
1958 5.081 8.092 13.799 18.592 20.362 23.516 25.234 24.174 21.774 15.411 11.806 9.189
1959 4.999 8.162 12.756 17.177 19.785 23.225 25.242 24.923 21.834 18.424 12.198 8.299
1960 6.985 9.850 14.221 15.722 19.218 23.522 24.619 24.167 22.465 16.306 12.883 6.547
1961 5.922 7.506 11.347 16.603 20.016 23.943 25.015 24.398 22.034 17.618 13.707 9.066
1962 4.046 9.258 11.069 15.049 20.048 22.744 24.966 24.074 22.227 16.819 11.439 8.551
1963 4.361 7.436 12.661 17.241 22.250 23.028 24.408 24.733 23.086 16.794 14.010 8.253
1964 6.871 5.224 12.475 19.103 20.609 22.771 25.127 24.512 22.576 18.704 12.001 7.441
1965 8.227 9.871 12.036 16.685 20.393 22.529 24.617 24.157 21.879 18.779 14.998 7.358
1966 8.694 10.438 14.298 17.647 20.038 22.787 24.572 25.023 21.782 19.124 13.485 7.542
1967 4.364 6.141 11.822 15.703 21.739 23.885 25.664 25.271 21.131 16.175 12.112 3.381
1968 5.987 3.120 11.953 15.636 20.298 22.598 24.654 24.367 21.630 16.597 13.348 10.736
1969 5.889 4.714 10.853 16.678 21.115 22.079 24.908 24.432 22.396 17.051 10.070 6.698
1970 3.743 9.153 9.320 14.629 20.413 22.630 24.647 24.660 21.999 16.494 11.572 7.789
1971 3.906 7.047 10.302 16.101 19.473 23.495 24.988 23.953 21.030 15.242 11.663 7.014
1972 6.033 4.952 12.210 14.723 19.995 23.476 24.105 24.118 20.666 17.733 12.306 7.353
1973 5.683 11.357 13.525 17.606 20.216 22.703 24.246 24.126 21.436 16.250 11.495 5.588
1974 5.160 5.385 10.865 16.807 20.562 22.708 24.255 23.510 22.648 17.416 12.900 6.773
1975 6.596 8.023 11.326 16.928 19.413 23.136 24.678 24.264 22.970 17.569 10.605 4.943
1976 5.637 8.841 10.046 15.296 20.259 22.507 24.021 24.809 20.980 18.181 9.387 7.845
1977 2.844 5.962 13.347 17.606 21.040 23.443 25.336 24.392 21.881 19.077 12.077 10.500
1978 6.564 7.806 11.553 16.844 20.268 23.521 25.566 25.218 22.270 17.334 12.393 9.365
1979 7.388 10.346 11.649 16.404 19.393 23.342 25.485 24.870 21.646 18.120 11.313 10.290
1980 6.438 5.657 11.700 15.646 19.933 23.939 25.191 24.285 21.115 18.459 14.915 7.779
1981 5.692 8.161 13.509 17.409 19.209 22.801 24.972 25.588 21.791 16.626 11.300 6.621
1982 7.593 7.184 12.145 15.224 20.713 22.201 24.783 24.714 21.367 19.327 13.431 6.772
1983 5.367 6.887 10.312 17.079 21.039 23.412 25.197 24.816 23.192 18.844 12.778 7.007
1984 3.609 5.018 11.505 15.800 19.407 24.032 25.227 24.377 21.607 17.246 13.904 5.527
1985 5.739 7.846 8.750 16.043 21.299 22.867 24.722 24.926 21.852 18.352 12.717 6.203
1986 6.455 5.932 11.485 17.076 20.857 23.611 24.742 24.617 21.810 17.039 11.699 8.623
1987 8.173 9.663 13.009 15.876 20.200 22.628 24.898 24.789 21.370 18.822 12.954 7.634
1988 6.920 6.551 9.321 15.520 20.874 24.016 25.434 24.473 21.445 17.435 12.260 8.948
1989 6.129 7.128 11.061 16.363 19.863 23.272 24.637 24.596 22.409 17.867 11.927 9.059
1990 6.506 8.173 12.477 16.050 20.033 23.752 25.131 25.139 22.448 17.507 14.145 8.561
1991 6.248 8.673 12.316 16.361 20.182 23.946 25.201 24.514 21.948 17.070 12.549 8.580
1992 6.422 7.470 9.690 17.318 19.949 22.848 24.862 24.882 22.382 16.222 12.366 9.756
1993 4.563 9.472 11.541 16.326 19.952 23.723 24.950 24.473 22.229 17.195 12.933 7.216
1994 7.202 7.059 9.919 17.990 21.938 23.576 25.515 25.019 21.425 16.960 15.199 9.603
1995 5.898 7.228 11.459 16.699 20.587 23.501 25.317 24.745 22.492 18.382 12.378 7.350
1996 6.115 6.349 10.628 14.335 20.050 24.086 25.164 24.742 22.507 18.570 12.774 9.058
1997 6.661 7.898 13.068 16.455 21.421 23.040 24.713 25.035 20.477 18.486 13.257 8.355
1998 5.221 9.172 11.996 19.354 21.211 23.803 25.770 25.714 22.394 19.501 15.651 9.836
1999 7.905 9.910 12.034 17.292 20.218 23.862 24.825 24.450 23.179 18.515 13.033 8.251
2000 6.226 6.367 12.510 16.982 21.885 23.788 25.682 24.842 21.993 18.344 11.989 9.529
2001 7.596 9.017 13.340 16.488 21.440 23.471 25.812 24.634 22.649 19.205 13.422 7.323
2002 9.148 10.783 14.342 17.897 20.675 24.492 25.231 24.342 21.840 18.054 13.234 7.887
2003 6.918 10.007 11.863 17.472 20.934 23.573 26.636 25.728 23.320 18.034 13.570 7.382
2004 5.854 10.547 11.573 18.031 21.190 23.441 25.220 25.018 22.296 17.295 14.278 8.674
2005 4.776 6.522 10.630 18.381 21.415 24.337 25.857 24.530 23.481 17.993 14.984 6.366
2006 7.017 7.800 12.323 17.802 20.761 23.965 25.973 25.503 21.919 20.327 14.637 8.126
2007 5.982 12.236 13.327 15.848 22.301 23.946 26.122 25.395 22.153 18.382 12.890 9.076
2008 4.123 4.497 13.752 17.566 21.152 23.645 25.690 25.309 23.353 19.369 12.687 8.619
2009 5.484 12.407 12.040 16.710 20.761 24.372 25.868 25.601 23.575 19.442 10.608 7.301
2010 7.397 9.395 12.298 14.845 20.790 22.720 26.038 25.701 23.328 17.192 13.432 8.475
2011 1.203 8.834 9.867 17.388 20.411 24.304 25.883 25.232 22.133 17.647 15.548 5.914
2012 4.320 6.383 11.811 18.039 21.294 23.954 25.907 25.190 21.647 18.531 12.253 -999.999

Surface Air Temperature (C)
Latitude Range used: 30.0 to 25.0
Longitude Range used: 110.0 to 120.0

CMFCN · 发表于 2012-12-16 01:40

举例分析：

西伯利亚与中国中东部气温 - 1月

CMFCN · 发表于 2012-12-16 01:42

举例分析：2006年1月

CMFCN · 发表于 2012-12-16 01:43

举例分析：2008年1月

CMFCN · 发表于 2012-12-16 01:43

举例分析：2010年1月

tom.hp · 发表于 2012-12-16 07:46

嘿嘿，这个帖子不错，终于讨论到南北气温距平的相关性，原来想抽时间开帖单独讨论，这边正好再补充一下。

大家有没有发现，对于亚欧大陆冬半年气温距平的分布，存在一个特点，给予一个形象的名字，就叫“夹心分布”。

下面来解释一下：

比如初始状态是：俄罗斯大部偏红（正距平），我国大部偏蓝（负距平）。当俄罗斯北冰洋沿海地区开始逐步偏蓝时，偏红的区域就开始南压。待到俄罗斯全境变蓝，偏红的区域就到了我国和东南亚等地。然后北冰洋地区开始再度变红，蓝色区域随之南压，待到俄罗斯变红了，我国又变蓝了。

这种情况虽然不是100%的概率，但是出现的频率非常高，相关性很大，并有相对固定的周期性。

这和AO有密切关系，每当AO负值，往往容易引起经向环流，极地寒流倾泻南下，与南方进行热交换，结果是极地冷源释放，气温开始偏高，与之对应的南方气温明显下降，变成负距平。

从气团路径同样可以解释“夹心分布”，乌脊东移，极涡南下，暖区位置对应西伯利亚；反之，极涡偏北或刚刚从西伯利亚南下的时候，我国往往是暖气团控制。气团的个头差不多就是气温距平面积的大小。

最后给几幅图，这种相关性很明显，无论是从1个月还是10-30天的距平都可以看出这种现象。

endone · 发表于 2012-12-16 09:22

辛苦了两位教练，其实简单点说就是冷源是基础，环流是条件，那么基础不行，你条件在好（当然也好不起来），也带来不了什么有效和满意的低温。
PS：两位教练不太了解CW，他的目标是188X年。。。

。。。。
所以他才说西波利亚冻个顶朝天也没用，准确点说气候背景和环流背景弄混淆了

		自动登录	找回密码
密码			注册

[再分析] 西伯利亚与我国南方气温

本帖被以下淘专辑推荐:

评分