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[气候监测] 2012年度冬季气候因子监测帖

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发表于 2013-1-21 15:40 | 显示全部楼层
拉尼娜频繁且强度大,厄尔尼诺出现频率低,时间短,这应该是进入小冷期的一个信号。

不知历史上是否存在这种对应情况?

比如19世纪末-20世纪初为小冷期,拉尼娜多;20世纪30年代-50年代初为小暖期,厄尔尼诺多;20世纪50年代中期-70年代末为小冷期,拉尼娜频繁;20世纪80年代中期-21世纪初为小暖期,厄尔尼诺强。
 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-23 09:13 | 显示全部楼层
TCC昨天最新月气候数值,倒是算出拉尼娜,只是TCC的距平基准,是79-08年
 楼主| 发表于 2013-1-23 09:18 | 显示全部楼层
目前运算结果2月起转向拉尼娜状态并持续的数值是:NASA、CMC2、TCC
发表于 2013-1-29 22:50 | 显示全部楼层

                               
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東太平洋的深層冷水開始上番
似乎有逐漸轉為拉尼娜的趨勢
发表于 2013-1-29 22:57 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 lx008 于 2013-1-29 22:59 编辑

ENSO neutral for early 2013 From BOM Australia

Issued on Tuesday 29 January 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators in the tropical Pacific remain at neutral levels. Current observations and model predictions indicate this neutral pattern is likely to continue into the southern hemisphere autumn.

Atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and tropical cloud patterns, have persisted at neutral levels over recent months. While the last several weeks have seen a cooling of the waters in the tropical Pacific, climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this trend will reverse over the coming months, and hence an ENSO-neutral state is expected to persist well into the southern hemisphere autumn. Mid-summer is typically too early for ENSO events to become established, rather autumn is the time of year when events typically start or end. A clearer indication of Pacific Ocean conditions for 2013 will emerge over the next few months.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia’s climate at this time of year.

Weekly sub-surface:
           
    The map for the 5 days ending 28 January shows sub-surface waters across the equatorial Pacific are generally warmer than average in the west and cooler than average in the east. Anomalies in both regions exceeded more than 2 °C above/below average.

                               
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发表于 2013-2-1 09:10 | 显示全部楼层
1月底的SSTA和冰雪、30天全球平均气温距平
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发表于 2013-2-4 09:24 | 显示全部楼层
昨天北半球积雪分布,我国东部地区黄河以北基本都被积雪覆盖。另外,青*藏*高*原除了中部也已经被积雪覆盖。

这时一个危险的信号,加上本来南支槽就活跃,未来3-5天冷空气势力又会明显加强,因此我国东部地区将出现一次大范围雨雪天气过程,积雪范围还会向西向南明显扩大。
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发表于 2013-2-7 17:23 | 显示全部楼层
截至目前,东北地区积雪面积明显偏大,青*藏*高原在经历南支切断带来的大降雪后,也由严重偏低的状况达到气候平均值水平
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发表于 2013-2-8 16:29 | 显示全部楼层
From NOAA CPC Feb 7th

During January 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, although below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) prevailed across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1)

                               
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. While remaining below average, a high degree of variability in the weekly Niño 3 and 3.4 indices was apparent during the month (Fig. 2)

                               
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. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was also below-average (Fig. 3)

                               
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, largely reflecting negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. At the same time, positive anomalies increased and expanded eastward to the central Pacific by late January (Fig. 4)

                               
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. The variability in both the ocean and atmosphere was enhanced during January, at least partially due to a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Consequently, the location of the MJO was reflected in the monthly averages of wind and convection. Anomalous upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Relative to December 2012, the region of enhanced convection shifted eastward and became more prominent over Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5)

                               
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. Despite these transient features contributing to cool conditions, the collective atmospheric and oceanic system reflects ENSO-neutral.

The vast majority of models predict near-average SST (between -0.5oC and +0.5oC) in the Niño-3.4 region through the late Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6)

                               
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. However, because model skill is generally low during April-June, there is less confidence in the forecast beyond the spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast)

                               
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.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 March 2013.
发表于 2013-2-11 19:29 | 显示全部楼层
平流层高层在SSW后,处于极夜无扰状态迅速恢复,中高层冷心已经处于破表状态(2009的SSW过后都没有这么恐怖)
甚至,当1hpa都跌破传说中的PSC I(-78℃)的时候...元芳你怎么看
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