世纪气象 » 台风展望 » 坎佩切湾10L HERMINE

北落师门 发表于 2010-9-5 14:22

坎佩切湾10L HERMINE

2010年9月坎佩切湾热带扰动90L QW.|+Af"x
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世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：免责声明
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P$e#R3O 报告人：北落师门
&FaR1j#q)V+| 所属团队：21cma
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g:|*y1y 扰动编号：90L
S)bpnb 编号时间：05 SEP 2010 0000Z
;M j%^Le e 初始强度：20kts.1007mb
Xs'?'Kz(tV 扰动定位：19.3N.95.8W（查看位置：TC Google Map）
(g+U IH&p'h 存在区域：坎佩切湾
n[^(s7EA^7Sx 1、系统结构分析：风场扫描低层环流结构一般，多频微波结构一般；云图螺旋一般
R1`{"YY} 2、系统环境分析：辐合状态一般；辐散状态差；系统所处垂直风切一般；系统所处海表温度 2８－2９C
&sgtT_hwzb5~ 3、系统现状其他分析： 無$eET6YC2p t5@ cg
数值预报：未见反应
4b7`7@U7G'| 个人评估：无wT0gPK2i/y
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备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---D
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5h@&P\eI:J'X 1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国国家飓风中心（NHC），采用一分钟平均风速。
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  2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
S fW`*@ GDmOf:t 3、更多基础知识请见：追击台风的基本知识W5t)?%C;h!Xn+l
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北落师门 发表于 2010-9-5 14:25

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT A
9l'v m^W BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERNff[*zZY ]&nB
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GULF OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY2C ?HY6TNE s
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
Cx/B pd'G ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A wH0K|$p/]4w'a V
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL.f.p+\l q2_8Q9c(Az P
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
iX7sH^? 10 MPH.

北落师门 发表于 2010-9-6 10:52

Tropical Depression TEN Forecast/Advisory\ uFG#g;L
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WTNT25 KNHC 060243
d#d:L)?!T#Ke2O TCMAT5.Tu)[q8h/q
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
S bE J;\\*h2Q m NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010[/Mc V7w'i;`*t Z(Q%\D
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 20104a2|9|c6h*Rm

.ZP)^3P7bE
pK CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
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S6H4E| THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE|b#ks tG0v
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
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#ze3URW%YP SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
Y_9S&Wh ]$c Vf *Dt6o1~t1l-jk3t
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... m S.yCTP
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* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
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d7B*qW#].l.gqVss A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
rG,e;aiO0|0v,M EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24k8N[A&n6d*@0r
TO 36 HOURS..gE.m_7nv

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rhy TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  95.2W AT 06/0300Z#S bw!Cmd
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
#gkc l_+`8~7S"q 1Z/PZ0c3yqNB
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   6 KT
8i;^8u&x/B4wA
ft%^kK#CW ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
$H5Ur5B0icR1O)s MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.]+qQ@/ndT2w
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
i*^7c ~|1Je MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.4]P:L+u/JYz
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REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  95.2W AT 06/0300Z/Lc4Hv-?xI6^2C:@
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  95.1W
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FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N  95.4Ws3HX-V/@:M
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.$g
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34 KT... 45NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
t!h8Gs#T +]/?oTtBG7N
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N  96.9W
~EoDH9k MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT. }sP7kj#]&hRSo^
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
~7Dh#c]Etw2u 4EpN%Z3Dr
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N  98.4W...INLAND
A+?"fb2m'a$KK MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
fK T*V'L5C} 'W~6o6zpQ6^!X
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.4N  99.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOWaP#\jL
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MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
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:T&_!i`[ N FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW.y8@@6Pt NoL
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NMv N&q [-A L(eq
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
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OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N  95.2Wrf%oZ*RK,n*?9e"|"p
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NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
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i NHC00UTC实测为TD，编号AL102010。

北落师门 发表于 2010-9-6 10:54

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
3u3gW V b3a4sb8N*w MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEINGUF+Au$F^)rR+g
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING.  CURVED BANDS ARE%o_)PBh6[
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC!r r;^$a.~q
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
$K f bakc0mQo$| CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL/G n-o.Z,l-w1{
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE@!aN+PKL7M
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
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{ WIND SHEAR.  ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
#r4~'m@Z6h3k#S AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THEuo@BsP:c#XQ S.w
GUIDANCE.
'LJX?U.ZyZ NHC00UTC分析出FT1.5。

威尼斯0519 发表于 2010-9-6 20:28

10LHERMINE.35kts-1002mb-211N-948W)UG.q&?7A!p8N9D7p
8Yd5rf*T/a}
MD……我服了……被大西洋彻底击败……开了那么多远洋的TCR `(U(L(YW(DI
感觉都不如这个近岸的……有水汽就是王道啊:y12

北落师门 发表于 2010-9-6 22:49

AL102010突然爆发，NHC的飞机还没到就升格并命名，在北大西洋70W以西很罕见。

北落师门 发表于 2010-9-7 10:40

Tropical Storm HERMINE Forecast Discussiond!QB+Ub(u;} R-M0LT
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Home   Public Adv   Fcst/Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Maps/Charts   Archive   

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mtxa6z i6A'h US Watch/Warning   Storm Surge   UPDATE   0N-I"a+o
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7UUxZK2a9? WTNT45 KNHC 070235`4PNU*p4e5Z
TCDAT5
h1V(T_H3^1p2Wg#k TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5&[-os}Z&p%s S
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010Lf~#A@
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010OR8nK{O ie&]

cDSv HR/A
THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO_3@8A$kg DA_+y
AROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THEpVE'r5]7q,{k
FORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION[9@Z g6o'|8h1i
ALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333

t1N2s
mRaW7n UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT...WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56
d,?~:g{%M KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAK
;\3y5Wd0q:EPD%f0UL WINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALLnJmfv
INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE VELOCITIES FROM THE
+^O*Xx3M;B BROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS*qt'x}2Nyp|,m
LOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL
0\&@lCI(j SHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTOG!|#V-e8d+X?
TEXAS.  ,Q^8l5Gw6n4] AC+k
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THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PS*hW%u REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVE_2{E+d:[n{+V1|-h
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
C:iK9x5dVLz OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
Z-E]5X4J6R7Xemc2~ SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD
6?9P]S9U2d,wmn%F#] THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE\s??A*?"Zq+w8y+Z
OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THATpH0U2KX
RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOOD1H1]L:pR'N
Gr
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.|H&I-iv2Z:l

k5gN;A ?|6G FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS1LcdS1j1TP7x"R

d!E'RR4xP INITIAL      07/0300Z 25.5N  97.5W    50 KT...INLANDN'lFW{
~7^
12HR VT     07/1200Z 27.1N  98.6W    40 KT...INLAND
'Wo~xYu 24HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND
|*?a0oK:Sf)r 36HR VT     08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW%B-|#DO+G-{,b,_4c1n
48HR VT     09/0000Z 34.7N  99.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
/j2DWL+ZyV!l z}N3K 72HR VT     10/0000Z 39.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW+yP2U-Uz1b#G5jfT
96HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED*wi5W2lO's6a
jSPkR
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H%d[8P~~ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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55KT登陆墨美边境，墨西哥1侧。

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