世纪气象 » 台风展望 » 2010年8月西太93C-取消FAIR

北落师门 发表于 2010-8-29 10:50

2010年8月西太93C-取消FAIR

2010年8月中北太平洋热带扰动93C/y\ tj:_lr

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Vzb:?:V 世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：免责声明
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报告人：北落师门
uZ2_\2q?I6h)mXe)P 所属团队：21cma
i `q(x/`6wQ({OSu 扰动编号：93CHp!b9ORdH
编号时间：28 AUG 2010 1800Z 6yc8YsWH"jI!S
初始强度：25kts.1010mb*|MD7[+J yL|
扰动定位:7.5N.175.6W（查看位置：TC Google Map）
iWvqz 存在区域：中北太平洋西部_PCJ+@-T#Y
1、系统结构分析：风场扫描低层环流结构较差，多频微波结构一般；云图螺旋较好
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RD 2、系统环境分析：辐合状态一般；辐散状态一般；系统所处垂直风切中等；系统所处海表温度 2８－2９C/R_]?+M3B
3、系统现状其他分析： 無
&I}%V0X]6K;of 数值预报：EC，GFS沒見反應
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ba]S 个人评估：發展機會中等$Wb#lak2_WK7ax
  XX
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备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---TW@&\v#k6b"A
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{1g-pTkyk)Jw2OU 1、热带扰动初始信息来自中太平洋飓风中心（CPHC），采用一分钟平均风速。
OE]1lk(?;XFXk*R   2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
#DNpcL7Y9N 3、更多基础知识请见：追击台风的基本知识
1J+^\:kL Zl 世纪气象版权所有，未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。
w2b+V,R;H'`"z [attach]45649[/attach]9Ol _I+n6g5w)x

2dQ.]H8f2J7i For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
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D;[d%bb},W|wY 1. An area of disturbed weather located about 1400 miles southwest of Honolulu is moving west at around 15 mph. Isolated thunderstorms have been pulsing in this area but cloud tops have warmed over the past several hours. It shows little signs of organization at the present time. There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. )Dof.r KS

]w&B$OC.o%M? Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon.

北落师门 发表于 2010-8-29 11:43

系统离西北太还有3.5个经度，目前环境尚可，不过CPHC不看好在中北太内发展为TC。

北落师门 发表于 2010-8-29 13:23

地面低压很完整但能量仍不是大部来自对流，需对流爆发，才可能评为TC。最近风切明显减弱，看系统能否爆发对流，在中北太发展为TC并命名然后移入西北太。

sylar 发表于 2010-8-30 09:14

ＦＮＭＯＣ定位已經進入西太
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p(d/X$U?.e 93C.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.7N.179.8E9cG b1AOk
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u\O4}OPB*C ＳＳＤ：29/2032 UTC    6.7N    179.0E       T1.0/1.0         93C  *a Rp x)y^@.P d
[attach]45735[/attach]

北落师门 发表于 2010-8-30 11:46

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 07N 178E WEST 10 KT.B6rZI'A)nS)_
JMA升TD。

sylar 发表于 2010-8-30 15:26

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N 177.6E,

{~{u)zb1@IH7C APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF MAJURO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE.R!r$`R%Y _%|%r
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVELcd6W|W\1^8]
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THEAg V l q1z/t
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WINDCE-Hhr
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING AN ANTICYCLONE TO
va]S2M;Rj THE WEST, LEADING TO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
B7z+wa"]g WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
V n z
G j LS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT HIGH VWS ALOFT, THE
?)a|jNq(@&]'o8h? WP POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE zY/IsJyNx
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

li0627 发表于 2010-8-30 17:27

西太超BT形势q;o3By+h&I#Z
   
(BLyr5d*Z6t SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1007 KOMPASU (1007) 985 HPA AT 23.3N 131.8E :
3K.@WR:P{ Do'v[@ SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
+OykU'S4d 强热带风暴圆规
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Tst6C+R-Ve"Q SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1006 LIONROCK (1006) 985 HPA AT 20.8N 116.7E :q eN.[)s7t
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
:`!E-E@)TM~ 强热带风暴狮子山6gn'c)I:j]v$n
   
EFT8IeS1X WARNING.
L5X \x+m[*Mz` TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA;e7{"E|
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AT 26.1N 122.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
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POSITION FAIR..l*]'KS w,M
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.u*{#fa)b.p3{ Rsd
热带低压09W|l%E.R8Wx
   
@5n:WXk$B.y TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 06N 176E WEST 15 KT.bgXWJ0SoC
从中太平洋移入的93C升为TD
_B7P0wE+W1x7e:hK    
:k8RqU.Dggi LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
lAA$h6M'\M\$X5^ 菲东远洋的下一个胚胎，现正孕育中，已有闭合圈

超级单体 发表于 2010-8-30 19:43

没记错的话，昨晚93C 7N-179.8E，刚跨越换日线

sylar 发表于 2010-8-31 09:51

ＬＬＣＣ清晰，可惜遠洋低緯風切不弱，加上輻散時好時壞，不然。。。&g)EI1X C-_\
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sylar 发表于 2010-8-31 17:17

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
O${:W8G1~6gghH 171.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-9CS(B+mh&s!hb-z
NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL TM/QN"O0dH\
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A WEAK LOW
6pBT8GqI_iN%o LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LLCC IS SUPPORTED BY A 302127Z d5M f_H2XG/t;qJ^
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PKWA. THIS
ZNSN)] DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, AND IN AN s-o2Hu|P7K
s Ej
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND D6@Go"xZA
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
2uf;el%]s ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
e1eD&CPh C TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
"K'y;Y)\C BW SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS [b][color=#FF00FF]FAIR[/color].[color=DarkOrchid][/color][/b]

qwer 发表于 2010-9-1 13:36

中心西南部分有对流云团爆发。。

sylar 发表于 2010-9-1 14:45

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N
W8v^{Kif4c 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, HAS b@&`'Q&DBDI
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

Q
f1N#uuk+Z SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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