世纪气象 » 台风展望 » 2010年8月西太平洋10W——玛瑙的胚胎

sylar 发表于 2010-8-29 10:15

2010年8月西太平洋10W——玛瑙的胚胎

[align=center][size=24px][font=黑体_GB2312][color=#ff6600][b]2010年8月西太平洋热带扰动93W[/b][/color][/font][/size][/align]{g$g(wze&p9E4h2f
[align=center]世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：[url=http://www.21cma.net%20/thread-344-1-1.html][u][color=#444444]免责声明[/color][/u][/url][/align])b H3`au?
[size=14px][b]报告人[/b]：sylar[/size](r q)faRx5]{.f6N!g
[size=14px][b]所属团队[/b]：21cma[/size].Q
v R0I[R!AJI_
[size=14px][b]扰动编号[/b]：93W[/size]
0V"r8Y u_0?(n+v"J!q] [size=14px][b]编号时间[/b]：29 AUG 2010 0101Z [/size]CO1T6O$kV
[size=14px][b]初始强度[/b]：15kts.1010mb[/size]
2gB)b n{SD D [size=14px][b]扰动定位[/b]:7.8N.148.5E[url=http://maps.google.com/maps?q=X.XN,X.XE][color=#0099cc]（查看位置：TC Google Map）[/color][/url][/size]
0?Nv+e|EW!q [size=14px][b]存在区域[/b]：西太平洋[/size]f-^)o0F#@
[size=14px][b]1、系统结构分析[/b]：风场扫描低层环流结构一般，多频微波结构一般；云图螺旋一般[/size]
?#];F"?
@^ [size=14px][b]2、系统环境分析[/b]：辐合状态一般；辐散状态差；系统所处垂直风切微弱；系统所处海表温度 2８－2９C[/size]J`Y.P&Iu
[size=14px][b]3、系统现状其他分析[/b]： 無[/size]$Z rZ[(Es~]
[size=14px][b]数值预报[/b]：EC，GFS沒見反應[/size]
f0y"v.H%PS]0pe
[size=14px][b]个人评估[/b]：發展機會中等[/size]

E0W0wCI)U   [size=14px]XX[/size]
8QSFW\7C [align=left][size=12px][color=#0099cc][b]备注 Notes[/b][/color][color=#999999] --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---[/color][/size][/align]
3P2l"w]"r5kB'I 1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心（JTWC），采用一分钟平均风速。
:g#|)T2zH   2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
7|~!E&Cx+Mhu 3、更多基础知识请见：[url=http://www.21cma.net/thread-4624-1-1.html][color=#0099cc]追击台风的基本知识[/color][/url]]Efa
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[color=#ff6600]世纪气象版权所有，未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。[/color]
$~6BWP!dJ [attach]45372[/attach]
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[attach]45645[/attach]

北落师门 发表于 2010-8-30 11:54

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 10N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.

H"g4^MeT JMA升LPA。

sylar 发表于 2010-8-30 15:25

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N 147.0E, frp(V)BA
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL9z/y!h*W.rS
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POORLY ORGANIZED
q^l(F y0aV x CONVECTION. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURGE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
7Tp BZ#i)s\9S9^N INTO TO THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
vz Ib8JS] REVEALS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THAT IS HELPING WITH
~{-e6\a2~ EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET BY A TROUGH TO THE8]-j(D$B(G#aK;Q
NORTHWEST THAT IS IMPINGING THE POLEWARD VENTILATION. MAXIMUMq/b#jo D6v;d
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
,l
g!q0Q_ LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
J^'i#m7V;mL(@ ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANTus$b{i1VmY#E
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

sylar 发表于 2010-9-1 10:04

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 147.0E YWM'hy
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-\a l&f\ qu y9oM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS u#N|o/l
N(d
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AND POORLY ORGRANIZED CONVECTION. GUAM RADAR
g8xr4sqU AND A 310402Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE HINT AT[color=Magenta] A SMALL DEVELOPING _:@#e2?Hq
LLCC, BUT IT IS WEAK AND HAS NO SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION[/color]. A NEAR
5m%G)B0F5T!\ EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO AID EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW.
7r{|%xgfx/v)r.V*h HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED BY A TROUGH TO THE
"]2V6K V"]&^kI NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO LLYx+EG Q|
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 1009 MB. THE
zd+U:v0plbN D POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICAN TROPICAL CYCLONE
kiyI y#n WITHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
o6} m\.v8K%Ufk\
aI%~C3W/J8N.NN "{7Cm%V[qq
昨天14時老J的報文
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S5ed3R0o_xdf"| GFS預測拋物線路徑接近華東近岸，強度50m/s?4m#Jh$\`'A }
EC也有反應，可惜是相當的弱
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sylar 发表于 2010-9-1 14:48

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
$n Ui'HL 145.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
8GV1x{_k3R SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.[color=Magenta] ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
4P:MNn7_l1~ IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
%jSNBL~~ LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EVIDENT IN 312336Z pPh*s9U6Wr
METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE[/color]. A PARTIAL 312337Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO
Om Z8I [+X 15 KNOT LLCC WITH WEAK SUPPORTING WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. DROPSONDE
L}b*x8zd DATA COLLECTED OVER THE PAST 08 HOURS INDICATES AN OUTERMOST
Ao,C`j]*f PRESSURE OF 1010 TO 1013 MB. PGUA IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
&m*gZ
W9CE:mV6R WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1013 MB. IBu:[9ND~
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. [color=Magenta]OUTFLOW HAS 6`4~8w
jaY
IMPROVED ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
3f,HKGO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE WEST[/color]. EQUATORWARD VENTING IS -[q8j7VOKp e
ALSO VIGOUROUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE. MAXIMUM
z WRHUCxG1Y SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 9|4m!W-_8pk1[X"I
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR trrk/F"tMPdH
s
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 ,K7h {(l!m-bGF)e
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

qwer 发表于 2010-9-1 20:25

留意菲律宾东方的这个东东啊---93W]:NSl2QB~N d8H
系统在过去的12小时内，中心有对流云团爆发Q^Hx&N
&^;s G+Z*Q%]'usY
螺旋性十分明显，目前约赤道西南气流还十分强劲，涡度也很深。。。。:y7

li0627 发表于 2010-9-1 21:38

93W，TCFA！！

sylar 发表于 2010-9-1 21:44

[quote]93W，TCFA！！
?L_0pe'L{)n$a["W [size=2][color=#999999]li0627 发表于 10-9-1 21:38[/color] [url=http://www.21cma.net/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=64815&ptid=8221][img]http://www.21cma.net/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url][/size][/quote]#f8U]{T E

2[6p*|)Qx w
Kg)}]~D$? 奇怪，ＮＲＬ，ＦＮＭＯＣ和ＪＴＷＣ都不見有ＴＣＦＡ圖片或資訊？

li0627 发表于 2010-9-1 21:45

好戏连台，一台方休一台生。
9y}"P }N? g6{    
"ebmlp-V grp ^ 随着夜晚极锋爆发激发的跨赤道气流通道涌向93W，10W即将闪亮登场。S k!K$H1Y&_|I*W7Cr
   
!|8jn2U)Y(b wS 会不会沿着圆规的老路，杀过来呢？那时候可就没有狮子山的制约了。

li0627 发表于 2010-9-1 21:54

[b] [url=http://www.21cma.net/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=64817&ptid=8221]8#[/url] [i]sylar[/i] [/b]
&p
A4qm:C
v:W'm1@Db"r 2D&lDy'P;H a$D
郁闷，似乎我误信了谣言，经确认FNMOC没有TCFA资讯。(lLw%?;`e%A!t_Qg
     ,zbV `0C9y+@*?
12UTC的情况未知，应该仍然维持FAIR。GVk8k$kU
   
'Oe WN,]&i,v 看来我激情的性格容易被利用……xd|dUg&Hu
    w:M}4\P7fl#R
W(W8M0R
不过，对93W仍然看好，我认为10W迟早是它的。

li0627 发表于 2010-9-1 23:11

真的TCFA了(i)iD Pbi4l)}8B
    BIm
z;?G?
WTPN21 PGTW 011500
G`8D#O*M(A
Bm MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
X)J(N
I:a2P SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
?xJ!Y6d Joi RMKS/-vEI:|B1CAA:cR
{
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN'zTK%UUE
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 142.3E TO 20.4N 136.3E
ZY(S^T WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
t!W:ct%b P ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.FHg0SH)\
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-kta{'negD k,I8@
AGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED"s;H!PG!G5k+yd-u
NEAR 15.2N 142.1E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT#a:K OxD:z~
09 KNOTS.*P%c*W'Z/l$[(cO
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 0PK.u&K@2`s9d|
142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
-pE!s1y2`K _"_1F NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
3g R8u7J&hWV INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION D!pk4r4T.|}
CENTER (LLCC) AND A 010941Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
a6L#bb
L IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW 0s2P&_-N"_Ug#A`C
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, FAVORABLE FOR
jUqBv ?,U;~ DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO NYV8d_8]6{
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 OdE? t$z`xK7t2L
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASE IN
hsr9S9r(}!O CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A Q'}.q)`(i:UeK6ACP
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
C};Ua;rd2|.apK 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY [M(ltKrC
021500Z.//
j4KHP |(\z[ NNNN

sylar 发表于 2010-9-2 09:00

已經升為１０Ｗ，ＪＭＡ也已經在凌晨發出Ｗ
.dLP)Aw7Z 0K!bh1S:WB o:YK3D
話說１０Ｗ的起點位置和圓規當初的。。。無差別
cq0s@r}v/R [attach]46183[/attach]3[:C3T7xo

4vE#a`.B&kF(A 環境方面繼續受ＴＵＴＴ影響，輻散保持不俗狀態

114989597 发表于 2010-9-2 09:57

个人觉得，现在的看点是10w与菲律宾以东的[color=Red][b]高空冷涡[/b][/color]之间的互动。如楼上所说现在10受惠于冷涡以东的辐散，可是随着10w的移动这种恩惠趋于减弱风切会有所加大，更关键的是在冷涡东北侧偏南气流的影响下，10w可能会短期内北漂。北漂之后风切减弱，10w当会获得较好的发展空间。重点来了，10w获得发展后，其后部的尾巴的正涡度可能会对冷涡下探正反馈----也就是说 或许还有一个tc产生，与10w有藤原。后面所说的这个tc如果真要有那就是近海产生，而且纬度较低。一般来说，tc经过副高脊后副高会向南渗透，tc汇入西风槽后，副高会西伸加强。这么说的话，后生成的这个tc对我国影响将会很大 极有可能是登陆。
?&RT|3H0v-P E9rS )jP4]vC8B.N
近海存有大片TC台风倒槽，水汽供应将不是问题。

北落师门 发表于 2010-9-2 10:19

不少数值预测能发展为强台并登陆华东。JMA可能很快就会对20100014发GW。

北落师门 发表于 2010-9-2 11:43

20100014未来有4种可能，1副高明显西伸西行入南海，2在东海转向，3登陆华东后转向，4西北行登陆华东深入内陆，目前数值支持在东海到华东转向的较多。路径需到5日才可最后确定。由于00UTC探空副高西伸，美军预测有所西调。

yz0330 发表于 2010-9-2 17:48

昨天的预言成真了，10W果然形成，而且是沿着圆规的老路过来。
r'So^}U\     Pke;`Z/Kw+T
1009号台风玛瑙相信不久也将闪亮登场。这一次，关键是玛瑙的离岸距离了。圆规尚且无法命中华东，华东今年可算幸运，应该没有多少机会了。

yz0330 发表于 2010-9-2 21:23

尚未刷出GW报文。不过，GW应该是迟早的事。

北落师门 发表于 2010-9-2 22:26

JMA12UTC未发出GW，因云图分析不好，不发GW并不意外，不过12UTC后从云图看20100014有发展迹象，JMA最早有望在18UTC发出GW。而美军晚间预报因副高西伸而调西。

diva49 发表于 2010-9-3 08:44

JMA已經在凌晨發出ＧＷ

Sally 发表于 2010-9-3 08:50

还是TD a，1008hPa，30KT
'Gp4a){6n
\2|{*J
~/_f(A    u+Qy n'Zw4~!M
历史或许这样记载：:T5{ A%j,[c6k
2010年秋，西太总是上演“神马流星拳”+分身术+螳螂捕蝉。玛瑙之后叫做莫浪帝，很威武的名字。。。

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