世纪气象 » 台风展望 » 2010年8月北大西洋07L-EARL

威尼斯0519 发表于 2010-8-24 08:09

2010年8月北大西洋07L-EARL

[align=center][color=DarkOrange][size=5][size=6][b]2010年8月北大西洋热带扰动96L [/b][/size][/size][/color][/align]Q6O/fOn
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F:}/HY4j [align=center]世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：[url=http://www.21cma.net%20/thread-344-1-1.html]免责声明[/url][/align]
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報告人：威尼斯0519
vn&Z.P xD+K4c,D L 所屬團隊：21cma
{x4nU3~y 擾動編号：96Lx;esvm-E7\F[0^
編号時間：23 AUG 2010 2045Z
h)^E4H9UP[-Lb 初始強度：25kts.1007mb

t%eat p!M 擾動定位：11.3N.17.3W（查看位置：[url=http://maps.google.com/maps?q=X.XN,X.XE]TC Google Map[/url]） G[;s0qXL
存在區域：西非近岸
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1、系統結構分析：云图螺旋性较好
"J/j;F-t?1BZEwa 2、系統環境分析：低层辅合状态一般；高空幅散状态良好；系统所处垂直风切微弱；涡度较好；系统所处海水表面温度： 26-27摄氏度左右
0w;H aMW 3、系統現狀其他分析： 无J7GNBi7u/Ay$D
數值預報：EC支持发展!s2w2]-a,t$@F*f9a*n
個人評估：发展机会较高
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m/`i{/p,RBO [b][color=Blue]备注 Notes[/color][/b] --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- N5gs'lix2`;F
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1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心（JTWC），采用一分钟平均风速。6Q0X ^!gu@$L?7sTh]
2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。-m/GLcg F
3、更多基础知识请见： [url=http://www.21cma.net/thread-4624-1-1.html]追击台风的基本知识[/url]
l:[3C zAL*r1kY [color=DarkOrange]世纪气象版权所有，未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址[/color]

北落师门 发表于 2010-8-24 10:50

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
9Nv#NPo*ov,p TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM3A%d N MDJ \
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK?'F-ra-x?
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL'KL"b;V4KF[
800 PM EDT MON AUG 23 2010:lBF|*w q']#L
} wxj0M
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...\U&fe2k(h0s!?G
v_7nwm
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
*alWy6Q+e UPGRADED HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1320 MILES EAST OF THE?|@?7G.Q oC
LESSER ANTILLES. X oYD5T3~xP
g8D2?zp8r%s
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATEDG&@cD!wP S
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
+Ue8k3qz} SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
/v+XP&c]a,s@7iJ"b DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
2w:I@b1p:Q&TY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
%G)~1s!|*@'w PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
o?'l)w$]Nk
H)v NEXT 48 HOURS.
"sGN:Q1M3Dw.Ac2N N"]&W0a U
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE(c1L+z,g,p
NEXT 48 HOURS.QS+ui
B1@6F
NHC昨晚12UTC升LP，00UTC机会已提到6成。为1非洲雷暴发展而来。

sylar 发表于 2010-8-25 09:02

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OFtYP!Q!Y}"@I rx
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
0h.z8j7pB1F0bj} AND SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY BECOME A LITTLE'?$t;B9a)be$J
LESS ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND COMPUTER MODELS FAVOR
X5I s7[t1k]-P THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
QC$s0C w*RO*D2SN+{
DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
I1Q1_:Z,V`9lJ A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES)Q;\w4S,WNshd
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

北落师门 发表于 2010-8-25 20:55

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES6V:`|J RfW)l"A;a$@
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING)G]jtV.I7CF
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOWX+]N8A'YE
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONx6l.\{m
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ONZw9Xe9H~Z
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
@ a D2s8_ID6W 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
\6k|h1K
W~"t$K NEXT 48 HOURS gDuK}(P

E}]9UU-@0[i NHC准备编号AL072010。

北落师门 发表于 2010-8-25 21:12

NHC12UTC出析出FT2.0，升TD，编号AL072010。

狂野时速 发表于 2010-8-26 09:43

07LEARL.35kts-1006mb-146N-328W
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第二报了~

狂野时速 发表于 2010-8-26 13:52

000.OJ-XJY8O2l*v6~+X
WTNT22 KNHC 260241b&i&QS$J(j+t V
TCMAT2
yB$m[4lk"n(u TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
1hG~K`%e*[S NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010&np}d5Uj_
0300 UTC THU AUG 26 2010:B8@"] Oxq$Kv

KO-Ff'? THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.Lc/W:V:zm.iOR@V

i.qB"zI],y+~yp TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  33.6W AT 26/0300Z
c-]+O&Q:mZ POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NMMf4WPMw!H
`[8N{c0@J
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  14 KT&F0sVI)E9}

O7v+TLc+h ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
m x8O*|6OT^ ['n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.$E|0oo7id#R&On
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
:Ic)U-B:[F 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
d5` Gsq*q2\J WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICALB7|z h+ro'r9QF
o
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.#gGYm[!Nd"D
t7?C3O1c,\#Rm0?~`
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  33.6W AT 26/0300Z
6Pvg+YD%Tr AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  32.8W+h ?
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FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N  35.9W
B+@/x-H;J)A%a MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
Q:G D}Sx&g? 34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.YD*zbtR{
m5rU)N,p,PS
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.5N  39.1WI.w1M-B0V0nn3RH
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.+J^5`,Ho:~9f
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
j_ML!B~i *Fo![:r,u T$N
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.0N  42.3W4l;D INc(p
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.j e${0CP q
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.m nj*]6S
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  40SW  75NW.eA2\%}C teB"\j
"]t[%e)|&D$N.ozo+x
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.4N  45.4W WC$dPM:Hi
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.|ryl*BmD
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  45NW.
&Ki0hF+L[n#Rj 34 KT... 90NE  75SE  50SW  90NW.
8}F8W4d7D4u2_
Brpb [ FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.4N  51.3WV2qH3KX3qgT*p
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.)]j:v[]W%X
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  50NW.IRp }j
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW._;aEt2?r8U2~b@

z3`G;a9jE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NMY w+c8] |Ow@%z
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
3C8p| S Z
T
&o4DD)QI5qZ OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N  56.5W
g"oks:S+~8R'H/I MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
.Oxs(H7a
q(G?
c.v1l0ei$I9?z OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.5N  60.5W
+x
r?y^mT MAX WIND  [color=Red]90 KT[/color]...GUSTS 110 KT."l]
HEEjt%b
.I~8Lf6do2|0\
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N  33.6W
9l(xtD:t(} cd%}mGui
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z
fE*x`l
-j&V9ol7\&ZW;z $$
rOc6thb-e%e,D FORECASTER BROWN

狂野时速 发表于 2010-8-27 08:27

07LEARL.40kts-1003mb-151N-380W

狂野时速 发表于 2010-8-27 08:41

大西洋居然这么干……

cma 发表于 2010-8-27 16:48

20100827.0815.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.07LEARL.40kts-1003mb-158N-410W.100pc.jpg'E8X ~6uf8A
b{;e}qU,uu q
= = 40KTS..

cma 发表于 2010-8-27 16:48

al072010.10082700.gif

li0627 发表于 2010-8-27 17:07

EC预报10日后大西洋一个CAT.5光临北美东海岸……就是这个07L的未来么？

威尼斯0519 发表于 2010-8-27 18:17

[quote]EC预报10日后大西洋一个CAT.5光临北美东海岸……就是这个07L的未来么？
)PEML5[i,L6n
h [size=2][color=#999999]li0627 发表于 2010-8-27 17:07[/color] [url=http://www.21cma.net/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=64048&ptid=8160][img]http://www.21cma.net/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url][/size][/quote]6jYf(U[$]$@iv2M/V
GupFK6oR2f
非也，EC画的那个大饼是现在的97L

威尼斯0519 发表于 2010-8-28 08:27

条件太差  增强缓慢……
n)KxQi9v5M 07LEARL.40kts-1003mb-157N-451W

cma 发表于 2010-8-28 11:48

20100828.0315.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.07LEARL.45kts-1002mb-159N-470W.100pc.jpg

cma 发表于 2010-8-28 19:25

al072010.10082806.gif(b E}Nk

jXp9q)HduI~8ay&H
110KTS封顶

cma 发表于 2010-8-28 19:27

20100828.0827.f17.x.composite.07LEARL.50kts-999mb-156N-492W.57pc.jpg

威尼斯0519 发表于 2010-8-28 22:50

07LEARL.50kts-999mb-158N-510W r{*i:O3g5Pp5?q
两个棉花糖  风切太强？

威尼斯0519 发表于 2010-8-29 11:52

当初是你说100…… 100就100……yx8B~f}3U
07LEARL.55kts-989mb-165N-546W

威尼斯0519 发表于 2010-8-29 22:18

07LEARL.65kts-985mb-171N-577W2uM]+V!g Rx3?ya8e
come on~~~

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